长江期货聚烯烃周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员： 张 英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 2026-02-24 01 资料来源：iFIND，隆众资讯，长江期货 核心观点总结 聚烯烃：地缘冲突加剧，预计偏强震荡 01 重点关注：下游需求情况、库存情况、委内瑞拉局势、伊朗局势、原油价格波动 1 市场变化：2月13日塑料主力合约收盘价6644元/吨，周环比-2.47%。LDPE均价为8700元/吨，环比-0.57%，HDPE均价为 7375元/吨，环比-0%，华南地区LLDPE（7042）均价为6930.56元/吨，环比-1.17%。LLDPE华南基差收于286.56元/吨，环 比-1.79%，5-9月差-65元/吨（-13）。聚丙烯主力合约收盘价6568元/吨，较上周末-123元/吨，环比-1.84%。生意社聚丙 烯现货价报收6640元/吨（+0%）。PP基差收72元/吨（123），5-9月差-32元/吨（1）。 2 基本面变化：1、供应端：本周中国聚乙烯生产开工率87.30%，较上周+1.39个百分 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined slightly, with Sinopec and PetroChina keeping prices stable for linear LL and拉丝PP. The market currently focuses on supply improvement expectations, and the macro - to - commodity transmission has increased. Short - term polyolefins follow cost fluctuations. The current spot drive for polyolefins is relatively limited, and the market pays more attention to the driving rhythm of macro factors. With the long holiday approaching, positions should be gradually controlled [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For linear LL, the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures prices were 6800, 6734, and 6781 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of - 54 (- 0.79%), - 53 (- 0.78%), and - 55 (- 0.80%) yuan/ton. For拉丝PP, the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures prices were 6645, 6648, and 6674 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of - 36 (- 0.54%), - 45 (- 0.67%), and - 47 (- 0.70%) yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of linear LL for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures were 171, 258012, and 18078 respectively, while for拉丝PP, they were 56, 210709, and 14456 respectively [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of linear LL for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures were 1082, 501315, and 69632 respectively, with changes of 54, - 2602, and 202 respectively. For拉丝PP, the open interests were 2673, 479342, and 110409 respectively, with changes of - 12, - 7495, and - 1177 respectively [2] - **Spreads**: For linear LL, the current spreads of 1 - month - 5 - month, 5 - month - 9 - month, and 9 - month - 1 - month were 66, - 47, and - 19 respectively, compared with previous values of 67, - 49, and - 18. For拉丝PP, the current spreads were - 3, - 26, and 29 respectively, compared with previous values of - 12, - 28, and 40 [2] Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2234 yuan/ton, 6440 yuan/ton, 632 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6490 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. Most prices were stable compared with the previous day [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of linear LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton, and 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton respectively. For拉丝PP, the price ranges were 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6600 - 6800 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Thursday (February 12), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for March 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.84 per barrel, down $1.79 (2.77%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.39 - $65.1. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for April 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.52 per barrel, down $1.88 (2.71%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.09 - $69.85 [2]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Date: February 11, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Core Views - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. The suspension of OPEC's production increase in the first quarter and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices provide strong cost support, but downstream demand is weak due to the approaching Spring Festival [4][7] - The main logic for both LLDPE and PP is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal changes are sensitive [6][8] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ decided to suspend the production increase plan in Q1 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. Crude oil has returned to a volatile state, and polyolefins have followed with large fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, most agricultural film and packaging film enterprises have shut down, with few orders. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6600 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] Basis Analysis - The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -175, with a premium - discount ratio of -2.6%, which is bearish [4] Inventory Analysis - The comprehensive PE inventory is 40.3 tons (+5.4), which is bullish [4] Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is neutral [4] Main Position Analysis - The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] Factors - Bullish factor: Cost support [6] - Bearish factor: Weak downstream demand [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in Q1 2026. Near the Spring Festival, the overall start - up of plastic weaving has significantly declined, and pipe demand has also been affected by the Spring Festival shutdown. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6650 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] Basis Analysis - The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -38, with a premium - discount ratio of -0.6%, which is bearish [7] Inventory Analysis - The comprehensive PP inventory is 41.6 tons (+1.5), which is bullish [7] Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is neutral [7] Main Position Analysis - The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7] Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7] Factors - Bullish factor: Cost support [8] - Bearish factor: Weak downstream demand [8] Supply - Demand Balance Tables Polyethylene - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and net import volume of polyethylene have changed. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [14] Polypropylene - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and net import volume of polypropylene have changed. The import dependence has generally decreased, and the consumption growth rate has also fluctuated. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906 [16]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: February 10, 2026 [2] - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. The suspension of OPEC's production increase in the first quarter and geopolitical factors have led to strong cost support, but the downstream demand is weak due to the approaching Spring Festival [4][7] Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in the first quarter of 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. The current crude oil has returned to volatility, and polyolefins have followed with large fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, most agricultural film and packaging film enterprises have stopped work, with few overall orders. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6650 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -71, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.1%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 403,000 tons (+54,000), which is bullish [4] - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is neutral [4] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract has increased, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in the first quarter and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, the cost support is strong. The industrial inventory is neutral, and the downstream has stopped work near the Spring Festival [4] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in the first quarter of 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. The current crude oil has returned to volatility, and polyolefins have followed with large fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, the overall start-up of plastic weaving has significantly declined, and the demand for pipes has also been affected by the Spring Festival shutdown. The current PP delivery spot price is 6650 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 20, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.3%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 416,000 tons (+15,000), which is bullish [7] - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is neutral [7] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract has decreased, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in the first quarter and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, the cost support is strong. The industrial inventory is neutral, and the downstream has stopped work near the Spring Festival [7] Supply and Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.3195 billion tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally shown an upward trend, and the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.906 billion tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16] Other Information - **Spot and Futures Market Data**: The report provides detailed spot and futures market data for LLDPE and PP, including prices, changes, and inventory information [9] - **Charts**: The report includes multiple charts showing the price trends, basis, inventory, and production cash flow of LLDPE and PP [10][12][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Plastic Part - This week's view: In February and March, there are few maintenance plans. As the Spring Festival approaches, demand slows down, and the situation of weak current reality and strong future expectations continues [6]. - Supply: In 2025, the total effective capacity increased by 16%. New capacity will be put into production at a low rate in the first half of the year and a high rate in the second half. Only BASF Zhanjiang has new capacity for the 05 contract, but the existing capacity has increased significantly compared to the same period. The overall PE operating rate is 85.9%, up 0.5%. Some plants had short - term shutdowns this week, and supply increased slightly month - on - month. The maintenance plans in February and March are expected to decline month - on - month. The production of standard products has increased, and the ethylene derivative profit for PE is acceptable, so the operating rate is expected to remain high [6]. - Demand: In the second week before the Spring Festival, the overall downstream operating rate declined rapidly. The film factory maintained a relatively high load, while the demand for greenhouse films basically stopped. The packaging film's phased inventory replenishment has ended, and new orders are limited. The demand from the food and daily - use product sectors has passed its peak, and the operating rate of the injection - molding industry is expected to continue to decline. After downstream enterprises stocked up some finished products, due to the raw material prices not meeting expectations, large - scale inventory replenishment is limited, and the raw material inventory remains at a medium - low level. Attention should be paid to post - festival restocking [6]. - View: Polyolefins have adjusted to a neutral valuation. Expectations regarding the Middle East geopolitical situation and the Two Sessions have not yet materialized. The upstream inventory has been well - reduced before the Spring Festival, and the inventory situation of the industry has improved compared to December. Therefore, a significant decline is not expected. The ethylene performance is weak, and the PE profit is acceptable compared to other derivatives. With limited maintenance plans in February and March, the supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level, so the PE cost - end valuation is moderately high after the repair. The greenhouse film and packaging film industries are entering a seasonal off - season, and although there is an expectation of improvement for mulch films, the pre - festival demand support may be limited. The supply - side pressure will gradually increase at the end of the year. Therefore, from the perspective of the upstream, inventory control is still active, and there is no obvious price - topping behavior. After the mid - and downstream replenished their inventories, the explicit inventory structure is relatively healthy, with a slightly higher mid - stream inventory. Attention should be paid to whether the inventory can continue to be transferred downstream. Before the Spring Festival, the supply may increase while the demand decreases, but the weak - reality pricing is limited, and the market may fluctuate strongly [6]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Wait and see with a fluctuating trend. 2) Inter - period: The willingness to hold inventory is lower than before. Due to the seasonal inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, the flexibility of the spot price is limited. With the continuation of strong expectations, conduct inter - period reverse arbitrage when the price is high. 3) Inter - variety: Not recommended for now [6]. Polypropylene Part - This week's view: PDH plants have concentrated maintenance in the first quarter, and the C3 cost side provides strong support [101]. - Supply: In 2025, the total effective capacity increased by 12.7%, and the annual output increased by 16.7%. The overall capacity is in excess, and the profit has been compressed to a historical low. In the first quarter, due to the continuous low profit of PDH plants, the planned maintenance has increased, and the supply center has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period. The weekly operating rate is 73.9%, down 0.8%. Some plants have implemented maintenance, and the operating rate may be difficult to return to a high level, providing marginal support. Recently, PDH plants have made many inquiries about propane for March, and attention should be paid to the resumption time. The domestic demand is weak, and the short - term PP import volume is limited. Fluctuations in freight rates and general overseas demand restrict PP exports. This week, the domestic FOB price increase is greater than that overseas, and the number of signed orders has decreased. The import and export volume is expected to maintain a basic level in the short term [101]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate is differentiated. The terminal提货 rhythm slowed down in the second half of the week, and the finished - product inventory is higher than last year. The demand for plastic weaving has slowed down as the construction and logistics industries gradually enter the holiday. The procurement enthusiasm for BOPP films is good, and they continue to enter the market to purchase annual orders. The order cycle of film factories continues to extend. Although the operating rate has slightly declined this week due to environmental protection and production - line technological transformation. The demand for non - woven fabrics for Spring Festival packaging is increasing, and the operating rate remains stable. Downstream factories such as CPP and daily - use injection - molding are actively reducing their finished - product inventory and shutting down for maintenance. The new round of national subsidy policies and the Spring Festival cleaning have increased the demand for floor cleaners, etc. The demand for home appliances and automobiles is showing an upward trend, especially in the home appliance sector, where sales have increased significantly, which supports the operating rate of the modified PP industry. The injection - molding terminal's willingness to replenish inventory is weak, and as workers return home, the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally [102]. - View: The raw - material side, including crude oil and propane, shows a strong performance, and the propylene spot is also strong. The profits of oil - based, propane - based, and propylene - based processes are compressed, and the coal - based profit is at a low level. The overall weighted profit is compressed. Some PDH supply elasticity has been realized marginally, and the cost is significantly different from that of PE. The plastic - weaving industry is showing marginal weakness, while downstream industries such as BOPP and modified PP have acceptable demand due to the Spring Festival, and the operating rate is temporarily supported. However, other products are gradually entering the off - season, and the off - season demand cannot resonate, and some speculative demand is suppressed. In terms of supply, the maintenance scale in the first quarter is currently high, and the supply center has declined month - on - month. The overall PP inventory has been reduced. The upstream had good pre - sales, and some low - price inventory has been transferred to the mid - stream. However, facing the Spring Festival holiday, the confidence of the mid - and downstream in the future market is average, and the sustainability of procurement is questionable. The first quarter may gradually enter a situation of both supply and demand reduction, and the price may fluctuate [103]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Fluctuate. 2) Inter - period: The PDH maintenance rate is still high, and with both supply and demand decreasing, the inter - period spread may fluctuate. 3) Inter - variety: Short the L - PP spread when it is high [103]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Plastic Part Price & Spread - Basis/Month Spread: The futures price has adjusted, and the spot prices in various regions have declined. The basis has remained stable, and the number of warehouse receipts is at a high level. The 5 - 9 month spread has fluctuated around - 50 this week due to the seasonal weakness of the downstream and the slower inventory replenishment than before, while the strong expectations continue [14]. - PE Outer - Market Price: The CIF price in China has increased by $10 - 20. The cold wave in the United States and the Middle East geopolitical situation have boosted the willingness of overseas holders, and the price is strong. The price comparison between Europe, Southeast Asia, and China has been repaired. The HD film performance is weak, while the LD and injection - molding products are strong [16]. - Import Window: The import window has been compressed. Overseas suppliers are raising prices, and the non - standard products are at a neutral level year - on - year. The LD import profit is at a relatively high level this year. The price comparison between the United States and the Middle East has declined. Although the Iranian supply offers are acceptable this week, the domestic market is cautious, and there is an expectation of a slight decline in imports [23]. - Non - Standard Spread: The HD standard - product price comparison has weakened, while the LD price comparison has remained stable. Some plants have switched back to producing standard products, and the production of standard products has increased [26]. - Upstream Price: Crude oil is strong, naphtha has followed the increase, and the ethylene monomer has weakened. The coal price has rebounded and then remained stable [29]. - Production Profit: The oil - based profit has limited repair, the coal - based profit has slightly improved, the ethane - based profit has been compressed due to the cold wave in the United States, and the profit from purchasing ethylene externally has significantly repaired recently [35]. Supply - New Capacity: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, there was concentrated production of standard products, with the nominal capacity increasing by 19.2% and the effective capacity increasing by 16.7%. Before the 2605 contract, there is limited new capacity. Attention should be paid to the production progress of Huajin and Zhongsha Gulei refineries. BASF Zhanjiang started trial production at the end of December, and attention should be paid to its production ramp - up progress [40]. - Existing Capacity: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the capacity base has increased, and the total supply has increased significantly. The operating rate is at a neutral level, and the maintenance volume is relatively high compared to the same period, but it will decline later [42]. - Standard - Product Supply: The LLDPE capacity has been concentratedly put into production, and the production ratio has increased from a low level. The maintenance scale in February has declined month - on - month, and the supply has increased [47]. - Maintenance Plan: The maintenance plans for the first quarter have not been fully announced. The maintenance plans in February and March are lower than the same period last year [50]. - Import: The import volume was high in December. In 2025, the Sino - US trade friction intensified, and the reduction mainly came from the United States. The pressure on the United States to clear inventory has eased, and the cold wave has led to a strong local ethylene market. The Middle East geopolitical situation is uncertain, and the import volume may decline month - on - month [56]. Demand & Inventory - Overall Demand: The overall downstream demand is accelerating its decline. The agricultural film operating rate is accelerating its decline, and the profit of mulch films is compressed year - on - year. The packaging film operating rate is higher than the same period last year, but the enthusiasm for raw - material inventory replenishment is limited. The profit of the industry is at a high level, but the number of orders is slightly lower than the same period. The demand for food and tobacco and alcohol during the Spring Festival has been fulfilled, and there may be limited improvement in the future. The construction of northern terminals has declined seasonally, and the pipe - making industry mainly replenishes inventory after the Spring Festival. The raw - material inventory is slightly lower than the same period [71][78][85]. - Inventory: The total supply has continued to increase. The production of standard products has increased with the production ratio. Previously, the mid - stream established positions in the futures and spot markets, and agents placed orders, transferring the inventory to the mid - stream. The standard - product factory inventory has accumulated, the LD and HD factory inventories have been reduced, and the mid - stream inventory reduction has been difficult [64][69]. Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - Basis/Month Spread: The futures price has adjusted. As the inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival is approaching the end, the basis has limited strengthening. The upstream had many pre - sales before, and the selling pressure before the festival is temporarily not large. The mid - stream has established a large amount of inventory, and the number of warehouse receipts remains at a high level. The month spread fluctuates [110]. - PP Outer - Market: The CIF price in China has rebounded. The quotes in north - western Europe have rebounded, and the price comparison in Southeast Asia has strengthened. The import window has been compressed month - on - month, the exchange rate has strengthened, and the profit from exporting to Southeast Asia has limited increase [117]. - Non - Standard Spread: The regional spread of拉丝 has slightly narrowed. In terms of varieties, the spread between拉丝 and low - melt copolymer is the same as the same period last year. This week, the upstream production enterprises'拉丝 production ratio has remained at a relatively low level, and the spread between high - and low - melt products has significantly narrowed [125]. - Upstream Price: Crude oil, naphtha, and propylene are strong. The coal price remains stable [131]. - Production Profit: The overall profit is compressed. The PDH - based valuation remains at a low level, and the coal - based and propylene - based process profits are in the red [138]. Supply - New Capacity: From the end of 2024 to the middle of 2025, there was a large - scale production of new capacity, with the effective capacity increasing by 12.7%. Before the 2605 contract, there is limited new capacity. Attention should be paid to the production progress of Huajin and Zhongsha Gulei refineries [146]. - Existing Capacity: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the capacity base has increased, and the total supply has increased significantly. The operating rate has recently declined, and the maintenance volume is higher than the same period [147]. - Supply Details: The production of oil - based and PDH - based products is at a high level. The maintenance in the first quarter has increased significantly compared to December, and there is an expectation of supply reduction. Attention should be paid to the implementation [152]. - Maintenance Plan: The subsequent maintenance scale will decline slightly. The monthly maintenance volume in the first quarter is higher than the same period last year [157]. - Import and Export: The domestic production increase is large, the import volume is at a low level year - on - year, and the export volume has increased significantly. However, part of the export comes from the processing of imported materials by southern plants. Recently, the domestic - to - overseas price comparison is weak, and the overseas demand is general. The export volume will maintain a basic level. The export to Southeast Asia and South Asia has increased significantly [163][165]. Demand & Inventory - Overall Demand: The plastic - weaving operating rate is declining and may continue to weaken with the Spring Festival. The packaging operating rate is the same as the same period last year, and the enthusiasm for raw - material inventory replenishment is better than other products. The industry profit is at a high level, and the order cycle continues to increase. The profit of tape master rolls is compressed, and they are actively reducing their finished - product inventory, but it is still higher than the same period. The number of orders has declined seasonally, which may suppress the elasticity of BOPP, etc. The CPP is actively reducing its finished - product inventory, and the raw - material inventory is at a high level. The demand for PP non - woven fabrics is acceptable, and the raw - material inventory has slightly accumulated. The pipe - making operating rate is declining, and the injection - molding operating rate has increased against the season [179][184][190][193][195]. - Inventory: The supply has declined temporarily. The upstream is actively reducing inventory, and the low - price inventory has been transferred to the mid - stream. The oil - based inventory is at a high level year - on - year, and the standard - product explicit factory inventory is at a neutral level [172][174].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: February 6, 2026 - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Report's Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral, and their futures prices are expected to fluctuate today [4][7] - The suspension of OPEC's production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices provide strong cost support for polyolefins [4][7] - The downstream demand for both LLDPE and PP is weak, and the supply-demand relationship is sensitive to marginal changes [6][8] Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended its production increase plan in Q1 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. Affected by geopolitical factors, the crude oil price is strong and volatile, driving the polyolefins with poor device profits and strong cost support to follow the fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, the demand from the agricultural film and packaging film industries is weak. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6,750 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -27, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 403,000 tons (+54,000 tons), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a bullish trend [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, showing a bearish trend [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro environment and crude oil situation affect PP. PDH device maintenance is relatively high. Near the Spring Festival, the demand for plastic weaving and pipes is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6,650 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -26, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 416,000 tons (+15,000 tons), showing a relatively high level [7] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a bullish trend [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish trend [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7] Supply-Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with the capacity growth rate reaching 20.5% in 2025E [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with the capacity growth rate expected to be 11.0% in 2025E [16] Other Information - The report also includes data on spot prices, futures prices, inventory changes, production cash flows, and internal and external price differences of LLDPE and PP, as well as corresponding trend charts [9][10][12][17][19][21][23][25][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be volatile today. For LLDPE, factors such as cost support from oil prices and neutral industry inventory are considered, but downstream demand is weak. For PP, similar factors like cost support and increased PDH device maintenance are noted, along with weak downstream demand in the off - season [4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, entering the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the Q1 2026 production increase plan. Due to geopolitical disturbances, oil prices are strong with short - term declines, affecting polyolefins. Near the Spring Festival, demand from the agricultural film and packaging film industries is weak. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6880 (-60), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The LLDPE 2605 contract basis is 2, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.0%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 34.8 tons (-3.1), which is relatively high [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with short positions decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, there is strong cost support, and the industry inventory is neutral [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and strong oil prices are positive factors, while weak downstream demand year - on - year is a negative factor. The main logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand margin is sensitive [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. OPEC+ suspended the Q1 2026 production increase plan. Geopolitical disturbances affect oil prices and polyolefins. PDH device maintenance is relatively high. Near the Spring Festival, demand from the plastic weaving and pipe industries is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6720 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The PP 2605 contract basis is 6, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 40.1 tons (-3.2), which is relatively high [7] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with short positions increasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, there is strong cost support, the industry inventory is neutral, and PDH device maintenance has increased [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and strong oil prices are positive factors, while the off - season of downstream demand is a negative factor. The main logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand margin is sensitive [8] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price is 6880 (-60), the 05 contract price is 6878 (-136), the basis is 2, the warehouse receipt is 9308 (-71), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 34.8 tons, and the social inventory is 48.5 tons [9] - **PP**: The spot delivery product price is 6720 (-30), the 05 contract price is 6714 (-110), the basis is 6, the warehouse receipt is 17223 (-13), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 40.1 tons, and the social inventory is 26.9 tons [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and other data are provided, with capacity showing an overall increasing trend. For example, in 2024, the capacity was 3584.5, with a growth rate of 12.4% [14] - **Polypropylene**: Similar to polyethylene, from 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and other data are provided, and capacity also shows an increasing trend. For example, in 2024, the capacity was 4418.5, with a growth rate of 13.5% [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - In February 2026, polyolefins are expected to fluctuate within a range. The plastic will follow the weak market sentiment, and the supply - demand pattern of plastic before the Spring Festival will improve little. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to new plastic production capacity and the non - start of concentrated demand for mulch films [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Plastic operating rate has risen to around 90% (neutral level), while PP enterprise operating rate has dropped to around 78.5% (low level). New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year for BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year for Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into operation in January 2026. There are limited planned maintenance devices in February, and the supply pressure remains high [3] - As of the week ending January 30, PE downstream operating rate decreased 1.77 percentage points to 37.76%, and PP downstream operating rate decreased 0.79 percentage points to 52.08%. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years, while the PP downstream operating rate is at a neutral level [3] - At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was quickly depleted and is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The cost support from crude oil is limited due to the cooling of geopolitical situation and the weakening of the cold snap. The downstream operating rate is expected to continue to decline, and pre - holiday stocking is limited [3] Market Review - In late January, the increase in spot prices was less than that in futures prices, and the basis of plastics and PP both dropped to a relatively low level [13][20] Production and Operating Rate - In December 2025, PE maintenance volume increased 12.70% month - on - month to 440,000 tons and 13.75% year - on - year. PE production increased 4.08% month - on - month to 3.0088 million tons and 19.55% year - on - year. The PE operating rate increased 0.12 percentage points to 83.56% month - on - month in December 2025 and is currently around 90% [25][29] - In December 2025, PP maintenance volume increased 0.54% month - on - month to 710,200 tons and 4.23% year - on - year. PP production increased 2.67% month - on - month to 3.5579 million tons and 15.51% year - on - year. The PP operating rate decreased 0.61 percentage points to 77.82% month - on - month in December 2025 and is currently around 78.5% [33][37] Import and Export - In December 2025, China's PE imports were 1.3299 million tons (up 4.62% year - on - year and 25.21% month - on - month), and exports were 92,100 tons (up 58.30% year - on - year and 7.27% month - on - month). The net imports of PE in December 2025 were 1.2378 million tons (up 2.04% year - on - year). The LLDPE net imports are expected to continue to decline in 2026 [43] - In December 2025, China's PP imports were 332,400 tons (down 1.28% year - on - year and up 9.02% month - on - month), and exports were 267,800 tons (up 35.80% year - on - year and 4.04% month - on - month). PP net imports are expected to continue to decline [49] Downstream of Polyolefins - In 2025, the cumulative production of plastic products was 79.1991 million tons (down 0.2% year - on - year), and the export amount was 748.7 billion yuan (down 1.3% year - on - year) [53] - As of the week ending January 30, the PE downstream operating rate decreased to 37.76%, and the PP downstream operating rate decreased to 52.08%. The plastic film orders and woven bag orders both decreased slightly [57] Polyolefin Inventory - As of January 30, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 445,000 tons, which was 115,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. The petrochemical inventory is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [61] Polyolefin Profit - In January, except for the oil - based process, the profits of other LLDPE processes rebounded, and the profits of coal - based and ethylene - based processes turned positive. The profits of all PP processes were still in the red, but the losses of the MTO, PDH, and coal - based processes narrowed [64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by geopolitical factors, the center of crude oil prices has shifted upward, production profits are poor, and the cost side provides support. The operating rate is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, resulting in a short - term low supply. Although it is a seasonal off - peak season, policies such as the year - end sales push in the automotive and home appliance sectors and the halving of the purchase tax for new energy vehicles have boosted demand, and the downstream operating rate is higher than that of last year. Polyolefin inventories are not high, and the sentiment in the chemical market is positive, so the center of polyolefin prices may move upward [10]. - For futures and options strategies, short - term long positions are recommended [10]. - Regarding the PP unilateral strategy, due to large new PP production capacities and weak downstream demand, the medium - to - long - term trend of PP is relatively weak. However, in the short term, supply is low, inventories are not high, and the chemical market sentiment is positive. The current advice is to short PP but temporarily wait and see [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Overview 3.1.1 Inventory - China's polyethylene production enterprise sample inventory is expected to be around 320,000 tons, and the inventory is expected to continue its downward trend. This is mainly because production enterprises face certain shipment pressure near the end of the month and are expected to actively reduce inventory. China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory is expected to be around 440,000 tons, an increase from the current level [9]. 3.1.2 Supply - This week, plants such as Maoming Petrochemical, Shanghai Petrochemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou are scheduled to restart, and new planned maintenance plants include Daqing Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical. Overall production is expected to increase, with the next - period total production expected to be 734,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from the current total production. China's total polypropylene production is estimated to be 788,000 tons, continuing to increase and maintaining an upward trend [9]. 3.1.3 Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has slightly declined. Factories' expected new orders are limited, and the long - term contract consumption at the terminal is almost over. The focus is on fulfilling pre - holiday orders. In the automotive and home appliance sectors, the year - end sales push and policies such as the halving of the purchase tax for new energy vehicles have boosted the demand for modified PP materials. Coupled with the stocking demand for small home appliances, it has supported the recovery of modified PP orders [9]. 3.1.4 Industrial Chain Profit - The profits of oil - based PE and PP remain in a loss state. The profit of ethylene - based PE has decreased, the loss of propylene - based PP profit has widened, and the loss of PDH - based PP is still significant. The cost side provides support [9]. 3.2 PP Unilateral Strategy - Strategy: Short PP. As of January 22nd, the price was in a high - level oscillation at 6,624 yuan. - Logic: PP has large new production capacities and weak downstream demand, so the medium - to - long - term trend of PP is relatively weak. However, in the short term, supply is low, inventories are not high, and the chemical market sentiment is positive. - Operation advice: Temporarily wait and see [13]. 3.3 Supply Side 3.3.1 PE Production - This week, the overall production of PE is expected to increase. The next - period total production is expected to be 734,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from the current total production [9]. 3.3.2 PP Production - China's total polypropylene production is estimated to be 788,000 tons, continuing to increase and maintaining an upward trend [9]. 3.3.3 PE and PP Imports - Relevant data charts show the import volume of PE and PP from 2021 to 2025, but no specific data analysis for the current period is provided [86]. 3.3.4 PE and PP Capacity Analysis - PE has maintained high - speed capacity growth in the past 5 years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of up to 12%. In 2025, the new production capacity was 5.43 million tons, and the capacity base increased to 41.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In 2026, the planned PE production capacity to be put into operation is 9.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.45%. Considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume put into operation may be about half [92][100]. - PP has also maintained high - speed capacity growth in the past 5 years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of up to 11%. In 2025, China's realized PP production capacity was about 4.555 million tons, and the capacity base increased to 49.165 million tons, an increase of 10.2% compared to 2024. In 2026, the planned PP production capacity to be put into operation is 9.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.1%. Considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume put into operation may be about half [98][102]. 3.4 Demand Side 3.4.1 PE/PP Downstream Operating Rate - The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has slightly declined this week. Factories' expected new orders are limited, and the long - term contract consumption at the terminal is almost over. The focus is on fulfilling pre - holiday orders. In the automotive and home appliance sectors, the year - end sales push and policies such as the halving of the purchase tax for new energy vehicles have boosted the demand for modified PP materials. Coupled with the stocking demand for small home appliances, it has supported the recovery of modified PP orders [9]. 3.4.2 PE/PP Exports - Relevant data charts show the export volume of PE and PP from 2021 to 2025, but no specific data analysis for the current period is provided [127]. 3.4.3 Plastics Products - Relevant data charts show the production volume of plastics products, the inventory of the rubber and plastics products industry, the year - on - year monthly growth rate of automobile and home appliance production, the export volume of home appliances, the domestic automobile production volume, and the automobile export volume from 2021 to 2025, but no specific data analysis for the current period is provided [130][131][136].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins are expected to have limited upward range and are likely to experience weak oscillations. Key factors to watch include downstream demand, the situation in Venezuela, and crude oil price fluctuations [8][9] - Plastics still face supply - demand contradictions and are expected to trade in a range [10] - Polypropylene (PP) faces significant upward pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [53] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Plastic 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - On January 9, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,674 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.12%. The average price of LDPE was 8,933.33 yuan/ton, up 2.88% from the previous week. The average price of HDPE was 7,022.50 yuan/ton, up 2.52%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6,848.89 yuan/ton, up 3.37%. The LLDPE South China basis was 174.89 yuan/ton, down 0.94% week - on - week, and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 249 yuan/ton (- 47) [12] 3.1.2 Key Data Tracking - **Month - spreads**: On January 9, 2026, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 249 yuan/ton (- 47), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 41 yuan/ton (- 4), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 290 yuan/ton (+ 51) [17] - **Spot Prices**: Provided detailed spot price data for different varieties (HDPE, LDPE, LLDPE) in various regions, including minimum, maximum, and mainstream prices, as well as their price changes [20][21] - **Cost**: Last week, WTI crude oil closed at $58.78 per barrel, up $1.45 from the previous week, and Brent crude oil closed at $63.05 per barrel, up $2.25. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [23] - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 472 yuan/ton, up 158 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 34 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan/ton [28] - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese polyethylene production was 83.67%, up 0.43 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly polyethylene output was 68.68 tons, up 0.51% week - on - week. The maintenance loss this week was 9.87 tons, down 0.36 tons from the previous week [34] - **2026 Production Plan**: Multiple companies have planned new production capacity in 2026, with a total planned capacity of 550 tons [37] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' polyethylene production lines have been shut down for maintenance, and some of the restart times are undetermined [38] - **Demand**: This week, the overall domestic agricultural film operating rate was 37.89%, down 1.06% from the previous week; the PE packaging film operating rate was 48.96%, up 0.55%, and the PE pipe operating rate was 29.50%, down 0.50% [40] - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 31.5%, with a 2% difference from the annual average. The production ratio of low - pressure film is significantly different from the annual average, currently accounting for 6.9%, with a 3% difference [44] - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 48.48 tons, down 0.16 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33% [46] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11,365 lots, an increase of 12 lots from the previous week [50] 3.2 PP 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - On January 9, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,514 yuan/ton, up 166 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a week - on - week increase of 2.61% [54] 3.2.2 Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Prices**: Provided price data for PP granules, PP powder, and other related products on January 9, 2026, as well as their price changes compared with the previous day, week, month, and year [59] - **Basis**: On January 9, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Business Society was 6,376.67 yuan/ton (+ 3.35%). The PP basis was - 137 yuan/ton (+ 41), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 40 yuan/ton (- 19) [61] - **Month - spreads**: On January 9, 2026, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 212 yuan/ton (- 54), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 49 yuan/ton (- 29), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 261 yuan/ton (+ 83) [69] - **Cost**: Same as the plastic cost data, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices increased, and the anthracite price remained unchanged [73] - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 516.36 yuan/ton, up 110.86 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based PP was - 428.77 yuan/ton, up 141.48 yuan/ton [78] - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 75.47%, down 1.27 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP granules was 77.92 tons, down 1.69% week - on - week, and the weekly output of PP powder was 6.75 tons, down 2.88% [82] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production lines of enterprises have been shut down for maintenance, and some of the restart times are undetermined [86] - **Demand**: This week, the average downstream operating rate was 52.58% (- 0.18). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 42.92% (- 0.22%), the operating rate of BOPP was 63.24% (unchanged), the operating rate of injection molding was 58.04% (- 0.08%), and the operating rate of pipes was 38.13% (- 0.34%) [88] - **Import and Export Profits**: This week, the polypropylene import profit was - 349.72 US dollars/ton, down 19.02 US dollars/ton from the previous week, and the export profit was - 8.91 US dollars/ton, down 5.17 US dollars/ton [94] - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic polypropylene inventory was 46.77 tons (- 4.69%); the inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies decreased by 16.14% week - on - week, the inventory of traders increased by 15.52%, and the port inventory increased by 7.24% [96] - **Finished Product and Raw Material Inventory**: The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 941.95 tons, down 2.15% week - on - week, and the BOPP raw material inventory was 10.64 days, up 2.11% [100] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 15,445 lots, unchanged from the previous week [104]