聚烯烃日报 | 2025-10-10 新装置投产，聚烯烃供应压力增加 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7077元/吨（-76），PP主力合约收盘价为6745元/吨（-107），LL华北现货为7000 元/吨（-120），LL华东现货为7140元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6750元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-77元/吨（-44），LL 华东基差为63元/吨（+76）， PP华东基差为5元/吨（+107）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.9%（+1.9%），PP开工率为77.7%（+1.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为247.7元/吨（+72.5），PP油制生产利润为-382.3元/吨（+72.5），PDH制PP生产利 润为-224.0元/吨（+40.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-41.5元/吨（-0.1），PP进口利润为-517.2元/吨（-0.1），PP出口利润为13.4美元/吨（+0.0）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为35.6%（+2.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工 率为44.3%（+0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜 ...

长江期货聚烯烃月报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员： 张 英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 2025-10-09 01 核心观点总结 聚烯烃：现实与预期背离，预计区间震荡 01 重点关注：下游需求情况、美联储降息、中美会谈情况、中东局势、原油价格波动 资料来源：iFIND，隆众资讯，长江期货 1 市场变化：9月30日塑料主力合约收盘价7153元/吨，月环比-1.84%。LDPE均价为9596.67元/吨，环比-0.55%，HDPE均价 为7912.50元/吨，环比-0.88%，华南地区LLDPE（7042）均价为7550元/吨，环比-0.54%。LLDPE华南基差收于397元/吨， 环比+30.52%，1-5月差-39元/吨（-47）。9月30日聚丙烯主力合约收盘价6852元/吨，较上月末-122元/吨，环比-1.75%。 生意社聚丙烯现货价报收6920元/吨（-3.98%）。PP基差收68元/吨（-165），基差走缩。1-5月差-40元/吨（-19），月差 走缩。 2 基本面变化：1、供应端：本月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For polyolefins, view the market rationally before the holiday, expecting range - bound fluctuations. The LL main contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7200 - 7500, and the PP main contract within 6900 - 7200. The LP spread is expected to widen [8]. - For plastics, the supply - demand contradiction eases, and there is strong bottom support [9]. - For PP, there is significant upward pressure on the trend, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [47]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Plastics 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - On September 26, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7159 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14%. The average price of LDPE was 9556.67 yuan/ton (- 0.38% week - on - week), HDPE was 7912.50 yuan/ton (- 0.57% week - on - week), and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7551.76 yuan/ton (- 0.33% week - on - week). The LLDPE South China basis was 392.76 yuan/ton (- 3.61% week - on - week), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 66 yuan/ton (- 22) [8][10]. 3.1.2 Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: On September 26, the 1 - 5 month - spread was - 38 yuan/ton (+ 2), the 5 - 9 month - spread was - 28 yuan/ton (+ 20), and the 9 - 1 month - spread was 66 yuan/ton (- 22) [16]. - **Spot price**: Different regions and varieties of plastics showed various price changes on September 28. For example, in Northeast China, the film price was 7780 yuan/ton (0% change) [18]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at 65.19 US dollars/barrel (+ 2.83 US dollars/barrel week - on - week), Brent crude oil at 68.82 US dollars/barrel (+ 2.77 US dollars/barrel week - on - week), and the price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+ 20) [21]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 366 yuan/ton (- 54 yuan/ton week - on - week), and that of coal - based PE was 521 yuan/ton (- 347 yuan/ton week - on - week) [25]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of polyethylene production in China this week was 81.84% (+ 1.48 percentage points week - on - week), with a weekly output of 64.26 tons (+ 1.84% week - on - week). The maintenance loss this week was 11.37 tons (- 1.15 tons week - on - week) [30]. - **2025 Commissioning Plan**: Many enterprises have completed or are scheduled to commission new PE production capacity in 2025, with a total planned capacity of 613 tons [33]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises' PE production lines are under maintenance, such as Yanshan Petrochemical's HDPE and LDPE production lines [35]. - **Demand**: The overall domestic agricultural film operating rate was 32.86% (+ 6.11% week - on - week), PE packaging film was 52.37% (+ 0.59% week - on - week), and PE pipe was 32.17% (+ 0.34% week - on - week) [8][37]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 37.1%, with a difference of 1.8% from the annual average [40]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 53.48 tons (- 1.18 tons week - on - week, - 2.16% week - on - week) [42]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 26, the number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12736 lots (+ 0 lots week - on - week) [44]. 3.2 PP 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - On September 26, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6893 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton from last week [48]. 3.2.2 Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: Different PP products in different regions showed various price changes on September 28. For example, the standard drawing material price was 6795 yuan/ton (- 2 day - on - day) [51]. - **Basis**: On September 26, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6973.33 yuan/ton (- 0.66% week - on - week). The PP basis was 80 yuan/ton (- 26), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 15 yuan/ton (+ 1) [8][55]. - **Month - spread**: On September 26, the 1 - 5 month - spread was - 43 yuan/ton (+ 1), the 5 - 9 month - spread was 28 yuan/ton (- 2), and the 9 - 1 month - spread was 15 yuan/ton (+ 1) [63]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at 65.19 US dollars/barrel (+ 2.83 US dollars/barrel week - on - week), Brent crude oil at 68.82 US dollars/barrel (+ 2.77 US dollars/barrel week - on - week), and the price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (+ 20) [65]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 493.88 yuan/ton (- 58.03 yuan/ton week - on - week), and that of coal - based PP was 338.40 yuan/ton (- 106 yuan/ton week - on - week) [69]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises this week was 75.52% (+ 0.62 percentage points week - on - week). The weekly output of PP pellets was 77.34 tons (+ 0.83% week - on - week), and that of PP powder was 6.48 tons (+ 5.61% week - on - week) [73]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises' PP production lines are under maintenance, such as Qilu Petrochemical's single - line and Luoyang Petrochemical's first - line [76]. - **Demand**: The average downstream operating rate this week was 51.85% (+ 0.40). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 43.90% (+ 0.30), BOPP was 61.38% (- 0.04%), injection molding was 58.34% (+ 0.11%), and pipes was 36.87% (+ 0.14%) [8][78]. - **Export - Import Profit**: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was - 546.82 US dollars/ton (- 66.76 US dollars/ton week - on - week), and the export profit was - 7.23 US dollars/ton (- 3.54 US dollars/ton week - on - week) [83]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic PP inventory was 52.03 tons (- 5.50% week - on - week); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 1.21% week - on - week, traders' inventory decreased by 0.58% week - on - week, and port inventory increased by 7.61% week - on - week [87]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On September 26, the number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14118 lots (+ 619 lots week - on - week) [95].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-9-16 • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，官方PMI为49.4，比上月上升0.1个百分点，财新PMI50.4，较 前月上升0.6个百分点，制造业景气度有所改善。8 月以美元计价的中国出口额为3218.1 亿美元， 同比增长4.4%，较 7 月有所回落。原油方面，原油价格震荡，近日以色列袭击卡塔尔首都引发 中东地缘政治再次动荡，美欧等欲对俄油实施二级制裁。供需端，下游逐渐转向旺季，管材、塑 编等需求均有上升。当前PP交割品现货价6850（-130），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： PP 2601合约基差-116，升贴水比例-1.7%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PP综合库存57.5万吨（-0.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： PP主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：PP主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：PP主力合约盘面震荡，原油地缘政治动荡，下游管材、塑编等需求改善，产业库存 中性偏高，预计PP今日走势震荡 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z001 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, indicating that both are expected to show a volatile trend today. The market is influenced by factors such as cost support, macro - policies promoting the steady growth of the petrochemical industry, and weak demand. The main risk factors include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [4][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, returning above the critical point. On July 14, the US threatened to impose secondary sanctions on Russian crude oil within 50 days. On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a plan to promote the steady growth of key industries including the petrochemical industry. The downstream demand is generally weak, with the agricultural film in the off - season and the packaging film slightly improved. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7260 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 28, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.4%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 56.3 million tons (-2.4), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract rebounds on the disk. Driven by the macro - steady growth plan, with the off - season of agricultural film demand and weak downstream demand, and the industrial inventory being neutral, it is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policies promoting the steady growth of the petrochemical industry [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, returning above the critical point. The downstream demand is in the off - season, with the demand for pipes and plastic weaving being weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7180 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 84, with a premium/discount ratio of 1.2%, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.1 million tons (+1.5), which is bearish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract rebounds on the disk. Driven by the macro - steady growth plan, with weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and the industrial inventory being neutral, it is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policies promoting the steady growth of the petrochemical industry [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [8]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7260 (+20), the price of the 09 contract is 7288 (-80), the basis is - 28, the warehouse receipt is 5822 (unchanged), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 56.3 million tons (-2.4), and the PE social inventory is 55.8 million tons (+2.2) [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7180 (+30), the price of the 09 contract is 7096 (-72), the basis is 84, the warehouse receipt is 12642 (+400), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 58.1 million tons (+1.5), and the PP social inventory is 27.4 million tons (+1.6) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906 [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with cost and demand in a state of competition, and tariff policies also having an impact. It is expected that the PE and PP markets will show a volatile trend today [4][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. The agricultural film is in the off - season, downstream demand is weak, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7190 (-20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is -24, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, considered neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.7 million tons (+3.3), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish tendency [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. With OPEC's consecutive production increases, the off - season of agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and ongoing production pressure, and a neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4]. - **Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are new capacity launch and weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC increased production for the fourth consecutive month. It is the off - season for downstream demand, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7180 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 167, with a premium/discount ratio of 2.4%, considered bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.6 million tons (-1.5), considered neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish tendency [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. With OPEC's consecutive production increases, weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and a neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will fluctuate today [7]. - **Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The market off - season continues, and polyolefins fluctuate downward. Downstream demand remains in the off - season, with low terminal operating rates, mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and there is little hope of short - term improvement. The upstream petrochemical plants are in the maintenance season, with a slight increase in maintenance enterprises, a decline in capacity utilization, and continuous release of new capacity, so the overall supply maintains an incremental trend. Enterprises' inventories accumulate, and the destocking rate is slow. International oil prices rebound slightly, propane prices remain weak, and the overall cost support remains weak, while the profit of PDH - made PP remains slightly profitable [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7284元/吨（-7），PP主力合约收盘价为7067元/吨（-2），LL华北现货为7200元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为7270元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7100元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为 - 84元/吨（-13），LL华东基差为 - 14元/吨（+7），PP华东基差为33元/吨（-18） [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为77.8%（-1.7%），PP开工率为76.6%（-0.8%）；PE油制生产利润为83.4元/吨（-125.8），PP油制生产利润为 - 306.6元/吨（-125.8），PDH制PP生产利润为231.2元/吨（+24.6） [1] 3.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 3.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 133.3元/吨（+8.4），PP进口利润为 - 628.4元/吨（-1.2），PP出口利润为28.8美元/吨（+0.2） [1] 3.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.6%（+0.5%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.1%（-0.4%），PP下游塑编开工率为42.0%（-0.2%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.6%（+0.3%） [1] 3.6 Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given text

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: July 4, 2025 - Research Department: Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures - Analyst: Jin Zebin Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to fluctuate today due to factors such as the cease - fire in the Middle East leading to a decline in crude oil prices, the off - season for agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and ongoing production capacity pressure, despite cost support [4]. - The PP market is also expected to show a fluctuating trend, with similar influencing factors including weak downstream demand and the impact of the cease - fire on crude oil prices [7]. Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. After the cease - fire in the Middle East, crude oil prices fell. The agricultural film is in the off - season, downstream demand for packaging film is weak, and there is still pressure from new production capacity. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7280 (+50), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 4, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.1%, considered neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 500,000 tons (- 5000), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish sentiment [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. LLDPE Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Cost support [6] - **Bearish Factors**: New production capacity release and weak demand [6] - **Main Logic**: The game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - data. The downstream demand for PP is in the off - season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7250 (- 0), with overall bearish fundamentals [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 176, and the premium/discount ratio is 2.5%, showing a bullish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 570,000 tons (- 15,000), considered neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish sentiment [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7] PP Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Cost support [9] - **Bearish Factors**: Weak demand [9] - **Main Logic**: The game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [9] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7280 (+50), the 09 - contract price is 7284 (- 4), the basis is - 4, and the comprehensive PE inventory is 500,000 tons (- 5000) [4][10] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 7250 (- 0), the 09 - contract price is 7074 (+2), the basis is 176, and the comprehensive PP inventory is 570,000 tons (- 15,000) [7][10] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [15] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is rated as neutral, and there is no recommendation for the inter - period strategy [3] Core View - Geopolitical tensions have significantly eased, weakening the cost - side support for polyolefins, and trading has returned to fundamentals. During the off - season, consumption is weak. The overall operating load of PE downstream agricultural film is at a low level. The operating rate of packaging film is lower than the same period, the operating rate of plastic weaving has decreased, and the terminal's willingness to stock up is low, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. The inventory of production enterprises has slightly increased, while the inventory of middle - stream traders has decreased. The new 500,000 - ton/year PP production capacity of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical has been successfully put into operation. Currently, there are many short - stop maintenance devices, which are expected to resume operation one after another in the future. The short - term supply pressure is not significant, but the supply is expected to increase in the future [2] Summary According to the Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report presents the trends of the plastic futures main contract and the PP futures main contract, as well as the basis between LL East China and the main contract, and the basis between PP East China and the main contract [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 76.4% (- 2.3%), and PP operating rate is 79.3% (- 0.3%). PE oil - based production profit is 363.4 yuan/ton (- 95.5), PP oil - based production profit is - 26.6 yuan/ton (- 95.5), and PDH - based PP production profit is 77.7 yuan/ton (+ 79.2) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - The report analyzes the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [28][36][37] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 61.4 yuan/ton (- 55.2), PP import profit is - 297.8 yuan/ton (+ 41.0), and PP export profit is 19.9 US dollars/ton (+ 20.6) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.4% (+ 0.2%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.0% (- 1.2%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.2% (- 0.4%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+ 0.0) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The inventory of production enterprises has slightly increased, while the inventory of middle - stream traders has decreased [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bearish rating for plastics in the unilateral strategy, and no rating for the inter - period strategy [3] Core View - In the traditional off - season of demand, the overall performance of the polyolefin demand side is weak, with weak downstream orders, reduced factory replenishment willingness, and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation due to the expected start - up of multiple previously overhauled devices and the limited cost support from the significant decline in international crude oil prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 7102 yuan/ton (-4), the PP main contract closed at 6960 yuan/ton (+19), the LL North China spot was 7130 yuan/ton (-10), the LL East China spot was 7180 yuan/ton (+60), the PP East China spot was 7100 yuan/ton (+20), the LL North China basis was 28 yuan/ton (-6), the LL East China basis was 78 yuan/ton (+64), and the PP East China basis was 140 yuan/ton (+1) [1] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 77.4% (+0.6%), the PP operating rate was 77.0% (+1.6%), the PE oil - based production profit was 187.4 yuan/ton (+28.1), the PP oil - based production profit was - 92.6 yuan/ton (+28.1), and the PDH - made PP production profit was - 117.3 yuan/ton (+4.8) [1] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit was - 302.5 yuan/ton (+13.2), the PP import profit was - 472.3 yuan/ton (+3.1), and the PP export profit was 16.1 US dollars/ton (-0.4) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 12.9% (-0.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 48.9% (+0.3%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.7% (-0.5%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.4% (+0.7%) [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - The petrochemical inventory increased, and the upstream factory inventory and trader inventory were slowly destocked [2]