Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Report's Core View - The escalation of the Sino-US tariff trade war has caused a general correction in non-ferrous commodities, but the correction in aluminum prices presents a good opportunity for buying hedges. The tariff issue has little impact on the supply and demand fundamentals of aluminum, and there are still many favorable factors overseas. Domestic consumption is steadily recovering, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the tariff issue in the short term [6]. - The alumina market at home and abroad has not improved, with stable supply and ongoing cost-side game. There are no signs of improvement in the alumina fundamentals, but as the Guinea referendum approaches, the risk of uncertainty increases, and the current price is undervalued [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On October 13, 2025, the SMM data showed that the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,800 yuan/ton, a change of -180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium and discount of East China aluminum was -50 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,760 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount changed by -10 yuan/ton to -90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,730 yuan/ton, a change of -180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount changed by -5 yuan/ton to -120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On October 13, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,040 yuan/ton, closed at 20,885 yuan/ton, a change of -205 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 21,050 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 20,730 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 191,737 lots, and the position was 170,895 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of October 13, 2025, the SMM statistics showed that the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 650,000 tons, a change of 0.1 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 63,151 tons, a change of 4,032 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 506,000 tons, a change of -2,825 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On October 13, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,875 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,940 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,125 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,120 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 323 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On October 13, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,856 yuan/ton, closed at 2,820 yuan/ton, a change of -57 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change amplitude of -1.98%, a maximum price of 2,856 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,804 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 288,895 lots, and the position was 351,910 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On October 13, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,400 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,700 tons, and the in-plant inventory was 61,500 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,520 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 180 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The escalation of the Sino-US tariff trade war has caused a general correction in non-ferrous commodities, but the correction in aluminum prices presents a good opportunity for buying hedges. The increase in tariffs on China has little impact on the supply and demand fundamentals of aluminum. The overseas macro favorable factors still exist, and domestic consumption is steadily recovering [6]. - **Alumina**: The spot markets at home and abroad have not improved, with stable supply and ongoing cost-side game. There are no signs of improvement in the alumina fundamentals, but as the Guinea referendum approaches, the risk of uncertainty increases, and the current price is undervalued [8]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Aluminum is cautiously bullish, alumina is neutral, and aluminum alloy is cautiously bullish [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Shanghai aluminum positive spread [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [10] - Alumina: Neutral [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [10] 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite a significant decline in market sentiment this week, aluminum prices remained relatively resilient. During the off - season, the spot market's premium and discount were weak. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilization plan has no impact on the electrolytic aluminum supply side, but potential policy support for the consumption side should be monitored. Although social inventories are accumulating during the off - season, the expected increase is limited due to supply constraints. There is a need to be vigilant about the squeeze - out risk in the 08 contract. The post - decline correction after the anti - involution sentiment fades is an opportunity for long - term buying hedging [6]. - There are still issues with alumina warehouse receipts. The supply side continues to resume production due to profit incentives, and the current and expected surplus situation remains unchanged, with the social inventory accumulation rate increasing. The short - term surplus may be in transit and form warehouse receipts later, while the spot market remains in a tight - balance state [7][8]. - Aluminum alloy is in the off - season. The futures price fluctuates with aluminum prices. The supply of scrap and raw aluminum remains tight, and the cost side supports prices. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [9]. 3. Key Data Summary Aluminum Spot - On July 30, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,670 yuan/ton, with a change of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The East China aluminum spot premium and discount was - 10 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount was - 180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,660 yuan/ton, a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount was - 20 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On July 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,585 yuan/ton, closed at 20,625 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,675 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,570 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 125,168 lots, and the position was 261,363 lots [2]. Inventory - As of July 30, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 533,000 tons, a change of 2.3 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 51,217 tons, a change of - 1,857 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 460,350 tons, a change of 4,250 tons from the previous trading day. The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 43,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 63,600 tons [2][4]. Alumina Spot Price - On July 30, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,250 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,230 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,300 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,315 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On July 30, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,349 yuan/ton, closed at 3,326 yuan/ton, a change of 54 yuan/ton (1.65%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 3,406 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 3,286 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 567,566 lots, and the position was 148,574 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On July 30, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 19,600 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost of aluminum alloy was 20,078 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 278 yuan/ton [5]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral stance on aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [10]. - Arbitrage: Conduct long - short arbitrage on Shanghai aluminum and go long on AD11 while shorting AL11 [10].