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段永平罕见发声:假如五年前看懂英伟达,愿意拿茅台换
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-11-16 02:20
Core Insights - Renowned investor Duan Yongping, after over 20 years of retirement, shared his investment philosophy and experiences in a recent interview, emphasizing the importance of understanding a company's intrinsic value and future cash flows rather than focusing solely on market price fluctuations [1][3]. Investment Philosophy - Duan Yongping currently holds only Kweichow Moutai in the A-share market, indicating it is one of his few major investments. He stated that his investment decisions are primarily based on the company's future cash flow rather than a single metric like the price-to-earnings ratio [2][3]. - He expressed that even during significant price declines, such as Kweichow Moutai's stock price halving, he remained calm and continued to hold and even increase his position, reflecting his deep understanding of the company's intrinsic value [2][3]. Decision-Making Process - Duan emphasized that investment is about making comparisons and choices based on a deep understanding of the business, anchoring on intrinsic value and future cash flows rather than short-term market volatility [3][4]. - He clarified that "long-term holding" should not be equated with "never selling," and investors must continuously evaluate opportunity costs during the holding period [4]. Understanding Companies - Duan agreed with the notion that "buying stocks means buying companies," but stressed the importance of truly understanding the company, which he believes is quite challenging. He noted that many companies are difficult to comprehend fully [6][7]. - He highlighted that even if one does not fully understand a company, it does not guarantee profitability, as success in such cases often relies on luck rather than skill [6]. Cultural and Strategic Insights - Duan criticized Nokia's decline, attributing it to a corporate culture that prioritized market share over user experience and a failure to adapt to changing trends. He noted that strategic direction and cultural foundations are crucial for a company's success [7][8]. - He emphasized that understanding a company requires looking beyond its business and trends to examine its internal culture and strategic consistency [7]. Talent Selection - Duan asserted that selecting the right people is essential for organizational success, emphasizing that shared values and cultural alignment are critical for long-term collaboration [8][9]. - He categorized individuals in organizations as "like-minded" or "co-workers," stressing that those who share deep value recognition contribute significantly to organizational cohesion [8][9].
段永平罕见发声:假如五年前看懂英伟达,愿意拿茅台换
21世纪经济报道· 2025-11-16 02:14
Core Viewpoint - The essence of investment lies in deeply understanding the intrinsic value and future cash flows of a company, rather than being swayed by short-term market price fluctuations [3][6]. Investment Philosophy - Duan Yongping currently holds only Kweichow Moutai in the A-share market, emphasizing that investment decisions should be based on future cash flows rather than single metrics like price-to-earnings ratios [2]. - He believes that if a stock cannot withstand a 50% drop, it should not have been purchased in the first place, indicating a strong conviction in understanding the intrinsic value of investments [2][3]. - Duan identifies as a "full position" investor, preferring to avoid holding large amounts of cash due to low interest rates, and he is cautious about switching investments without clear opportunities [2][3]. Decision-Making and Opportunity Cost - Duan emphasizes the importance of continuously evaluating opportunity costs during the holding period of an investment, suggesting that long-term holding does not equate to never selling [4][5]. - He illustrates that if he had understood Nvidia's potential five years ago, it would have been reasonable to switch from Moutai to Nvidia if conditions allowed [4]. Understanding Companies - Duan asserts that the principle of "buying stocks means buying companies" is simple but challenging to execute, as truly understanding a company's business model and future cash flows is difficult [6]. - He notes that even if one does not fully understand a company, it is still possible to make money, but such success is often based on luck rather than skill [6]. Cultural and Strategic Insights - Duan critiques Nokia's decline, attributing it to a failure to prioritize user needs and a rigid adherence to its own systems, which led to missed opportunities [7]. - He stresses that understanding a company requires looking beyond its business and trends to examine its internal culture and strategic direction [7]. Talent Selection and Organizational Culture - Duan believes that selecting individuals with shared values is crucial for organizational success, emphasizing that a strong cultural alignment fosters long-term relationships and cohesion [9]. - He categorizes individuals in an organization as either "like-minded" or "co-workers," highlighting the importance of deep value alignment for effective collaboration [9].
诺基亚为何错失时代?段永平:重生意而轻用户,失败毫不意外
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-11-15 15:02
Core Insights - Renowned investor Duan Yongping, who has been "retired" for over 20 years, recently shared his views on investment philosophy, corporate management, and personal growth in an interview on the program "Fanglue" [2] Group 1: Company Analysis - Duan Yongping criticized Nokia's E71, highlighting its confusing interface and poor user experience, which contributed to Nokia's decline [3] - He emphasized that Nokia's downfall was due to a corporate culture that prioritized market share and business over user-centric values, leading to missed transformation opportunities [4] - Duan pointed out that despite Nokia's management strengths, effective management cannot compensate for fundamental failures in strategy and culture [4] Group 2: Investment Insights - Investors are advised to look beyond a company's business and trends, focusing instead on its internal culture and strategic consistency to truly understand its potential [5]