[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 11 月 25 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 一、市场行情分析 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 科技引领市场反弹 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2025 年 11 月 25 日周二，A 股市场延续反弹，AI 应用概念维持强势；国债 期货市场偏弱震荡；商品指数上涨，碳酸锂和贵金属领涨。 图 1：市场小幅放量反弹 1）股票市场：延续反弹，科技领涨 资料来源：Wind，德邦研究所 市场延续全面反弹，小幅放量。今日市场早盘高开后震荡走强，午后涨幅略有收窄 但整体保持强势。上证指数全天围绕 3870 点波动，收盘报 3870.02 点，上涨 0.87%； 深证成指表现更优，收盘报 12777.31 点，上涨 1.53%；创业板指领涨主要指数， 盘中一度涨超 3%突破 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight rebound with reduced trading volume, while the government bond futures market showed signs of recovery. The commodity index rebounded, but lithium carbonate continued its adjustment [1]. Market Analysis Stock Market - The stock market saw a slight rebound with significant differentiation. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77 points, up 0.05%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37% to 12585.08 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.31% to 2929.04 points. The STAR 50 Index gained 0.84%. Notably, small-cap stocks outperformed, with the STAR 200 Index surging 3.02% and the Wind Micro Cap Index rising 2.21%. The total market turnover was 1.74 trillion yuan, down approximately 12.3% from the previous trading day, indicating weak buying interest [2][4]. Bond Market - The government bond futures market showed a slight increase, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.15%. The 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts increased by 0.06%, 0.03%, and 0.01%, respectively. The overall liquidity in the market remained ample, with the central bank conducting a 3387 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40% [7][8]. Commodity Market - The commodity index rebounded, with the Nanhua Commodity Index closing at 2516.25 points, up 0.55%. The market showed structural differentiation, with the energy and chemical sectors leading gains, while agricultural products and black metals showed localized strength. However, lithium carbonate prices continued to decline, dropping by 2.88% [9][11]. Trading Hotspots Recent Hot Products - Dividend stocks are attractive due to their yield and risk-averse positioning, with future attention on commodity price trends and corporate dividend situations [13]. - AI applications are gaining traction, with products like Alibaba's Qianwen and Google's Gemini driving interest, focusing on application scenario transformations and technological breakthroughs [13]. - The consumer sector is benefiting from the appreciation of the yuan and market style shifts, with future attention on economic recovery and potential stimulus policies [13]. - Brokerage firms are seeing active trading and deposit migration, with future focus on A-share market trading volume and potential changes in trading regulations [13]. Core Thoughts Summary - The equity market is expected to remain weak due to external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, with a cautious risk appetite anticipated [14]. - The bond market is likely to maintain a loose liquidity environment in the short term, with attention on domestic policies and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [14]. - The industrial product market is shifting from speculative trading to focusing on the real supply-demand fundamentals, while precious metals may have upward opportunities if U.S. non-farm data is weak or geopolitical risks increase [14].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 11 月 24 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 缩量反弹，军工、AI 应用活跃 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2025 年 11 月 24 日周一，A 股市场缩量反弹；国债期货市场回暖；商品指 数反弹，碳酸锂延续回调。 一、市场行情分析 图 1：市场缩量反弹 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 资料来源：Wind，德邦研究所 军工和 AI 应用概念延续活跃。今日强势板块延续周五相对强势表现，中船系、航 母、商业航天、军工信息化、拼多多合作商指数分别上涨 6.41%、5.78%、5.75%、 5.74%、5.14%。消息面上，综合彭博社及日本富士新闻网 24 日报道，日本防卫 大臣小泉进次郎在 23 日视察琉球群岛一处自卫队基地时表示，日本将如期在该基 地部署中程防 ...