根据目前的数据和分析,2025年的进口量对成本产生了显著影响。具体来说, 巴西的牛肉成本预计增加 11%左右,而澳洲的牛肉成本则接近 30%的增幅。如果 综合考虑阿根廷和乌拉圭的进口量,草饲牛肉的成本也将增长 7%至 8%。因此, 到 2026 年,整体进口均价将保持在较高水平。巴西调整牛群出栏节奏以适应上 半年订单需求,加上美国市场对牛肉的持续需求,上半年价格竞争激烈。到2027 年,由于关税和国内缺口加剧,价格将继续得到支撑。 争为 更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 肉牛:进口牛肉保障措施落地,影响几何?20260104 摘要 人 - 人 - 上海 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - - 节等旺季备货,部分企业为回笼资金加快出毁。 Q&A 未来一两年进口肉的价格走势如何?预计整体涨幅会有多大? 目前草饲产品中低端部分仍显示出国内价格较高,但冻淘汰母牛肉与国外草饲产 品竞争时价差并不大。例如,冻淘汰母牛肉每公斤约 66元,与食品加工企业使 用的后部位 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the reduction of tariffs on agricultural products between the US and China, with the US lowering tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% and China reducing tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10% [1] - Brazil is expected to benefit from the tariff changes, as it is the largest soybean supplier to China, and its exports are not subject to the same tariffs as US products [1][3] - The US soybean market has been significantly impacted by the trade war, with over half of US soybean exports going to China in recent years, but the tariffs have created opportunities for Brazilian farmers [3] Group 2 - During the tariff suspension period, US pork exports to China still face a minimum tariff of 57%, which could affect export volumes during the critical harvest season for US soybeans and corn [4] - Australia has seen a record increase in beef exports to China, while US beef exports have stagnated, with Chinese importers recently canceling orders [4] - China has increased its imports of feedlot beef from Australia, with approximately 42,000 tons imported this year, marking a 36% increase compared to the same period last year [4]

Group 1 - Australia's beef export volume reached a record high of 127,000 tons in April, with the United States being the largest destination at 37,213 tons, followed by China at 21,572 tons [1] - The increase in beef exports is attributed to record supply levels, with both beef export and production hitting new highs last year, leading to a steady rise in total production and export volumes [3] - Demand for grain-fed beef from China surged, with exports exceeding 37,000 tons in April, marking a historical monthly high, and imports from Australia reaching approximately 42,000 tons year-to-date, a 36% increase compared to the same period last year [3] Group 2 - The ongoing U.S.-China trade war has led to a near halt in U.S. beef exports to China, with recent cancellations of 5,500 tons of orders, although other international markets, particularly South Korea and Japan, are absorbing these lost orders [5] - Drought conditions in southern Australia have forced many farmers to sell off cattle, resulting in record numbers of cattle entering markets, with Wagga Wagga seeing nearly 8,700 cattle traded recently [6][8] - The overall cattle prices have stabilized due to strong demand from feedlots and northern farmers, despite a general decline in national cattle indicators, with slaughter cow prices dropping by 22 Australian cents per kilogram to the lowest level of the year [10][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant reduction of China's crude oil imports from the U.S. by 90% due to escalating trade tensions, leading to an unprecedented increase in imports from Canada [1][5] - The expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX) has facilitated the flow of Alberta's oil sands crude to China, with imports reaching a record 7.3 million barrels in March, expected to rise further in April [1] - The trade war has prompted China to diversify its oil import sources, with a notable shift towards Middle Eastern and other alternative crude oils, as the economic viability of U.S. crude has diminished due to tariffs [3][5] Group 2 - China's crude oil import volume is projected to decline by 1.9% in 2024, with a diversified import structure increasingly focusing on the Middle East and Europe, while reducing reliance on North America [5] - The imposition of tariffs by the U.S. has significantly increased the cost of American crude oil, weakening its competitiveness in the Chinese market [5] - The long-term impact of U.S. tariffs is expected to negatively affect global economic conditions and crude oil demand, potentially leading to a decrease in international oil prices [7]