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农产品日报(2025年9月11日)-20250911
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 05:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market for various agricultural products is in a state of oscillation. Corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs are all expected to show an oscillatory trend [1][2]. - For corn, the market is affected by factors such as the increase in new grain listings and the transition of old - grain prices to new - grain prices. In the short - term, the 11 - month contract is expected to continue to adjust, and in the medium - term, it is judged to be weak due to expected high yields and lower costs [1]. - Regarding soybean meal, the international market has changes in supply and demand expectations, and the domestic market has sufficient spot goods and stable import costs. Without significant driving factors, the price will oscillate, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - In the case of oils, the international market has a negative impact on prices, but there are also some positive factors such as potential bio - diesel policy changes. The market is currently oscillating, and strategies such as increasing volatility or selling put options are recommended [1]. - For eggs, the spot price has a certain increase, but the rebound is limited. The future egg price will be affected by the supply side. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in the market and supply [1][2]. - For pigs, the futures price is oscillating strongly, while the spot price is weak. The short - term policy boost is limited, and attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment on futures prices [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Corn**: The main 2511 contract of corn decreased in position and price on Wednesday. The trading enthusiasm of both long and short sides has cooled. As the listing volume of new corn in western Liaoning increases, the price returns to range fluctuations. The old grain in the Northeast is still strong, and the price in North China is weakly stable. The price in the sales area has a local increase. Technically, the 11 - month contract is expected to continue to adjust in the short - term and be weak in the medium - term [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans fell on Wednesday. Analysts expect a decrease in US soybean yield, export, and inventory. The strengthening of US soybean oil is due to potential bio - diesel policy changes. The domestic spot price of soybean meal oscillates, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil fell for the second consecutive day due to the decline of related oils and weak exports. The MPOB August supply - demand report is slightly bearish. The domestic oil futures price is weak. The market is oscillating, and strategies such as increasing volatility or selling put options are recommended [1]. - **Eggs**: The main 2510 and 2511 contracts of eggs showed a weak trend on Wednesday. The spot price increased slightly. The future egg price will be affected by the supply side. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in the market and supply [1][2]. - **Pigs**: The pig futures price oscillated strongly on Wednesday, while the spot price was weak. The short - term policy boost is limited, and attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment on futures prices [2]. 3.2 Market Information - Malaysia's sustainable palm oil certification (MSPO) has been recognized by the EU, which helps relevant enterprises comply with EU deforestation regulations [3]. - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 10 decreased compared with the same period last month, with a decrease of 1.2% - 8.4% according to different survey agencies [3]. - The MPOB August supply - demand report shows that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons, the production increased by 2.35% to 1.86 million tons, and the export decreased by 0.29% to 1.32 million tons [3]. - In the 36th week of 2025 (September 1 - 5), the average weekly price of lean - type white - striped pork in 16 provinces and municipalities increased by 2.0% month - on - month, decreased by 29.7% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.8 percentage points compared with the previous week. The price first rose and then fell during the week [4]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission plan to hold a symposium on pig production capacity regulation on September 16, inviting 25 enterprises to participate [5]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and contract basis for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is provided [6][7][8][12][14][15][16][18][19][25]
光大期货农产品日报-20250612
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 06:50
Research Views Corn - The corn main contract increased in price with reduced positions on Wednesday. The July contract encountered resistance at the previous high. Spot prices in the Northeast continued to rise by 20 - 40 yuan/ton in the past two days. Deep - processing enterprises in the production area and North China also raised purchase prices. Shandong's deep - processing arrivals remained low, and prices increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Hebei's prices went up by 15 - 30 yuan/ton, while Henan's were basically stable. Prices in the sales area rose widely, but high - price corn had limited transactions, and wheat substitution continued. Technically, short - position holders in the near - month contract reduced their positions, leading to a rapid increase in futures prices. The July contract might face a phased adjustment due to profit - taking [1]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans declined on Wednesday. Market participants focused on the favorable weather in the US. The USDA's May estimate of the US 2024/25 soybean ending stocks was 3.51 billion bushels, and for 2025/26 it was 2.98 billion bushels. Globally, the 2025/26 soybean ending stocks were estimated at 1.2454 billion tons. Domestically, protein meal continued to increase with more positions. There were differences between long and short positions. The operation suggestion was to hold long spreads for soybean meal 91 and 15 contracts and maintain a long - only mindset [1]. Oils - BMD palm oil dropped to a two - week low on Wednesday, affected by weak international oil prices and increased May - end inventory. Malaysian palm oil production in May was 177 million tons, 5% higher than expected. High - frequency data showed that exports from June 1 - 10 increased by 8.1% - 32.7% month - on - month, while production decreased by 17.24%. In Canada, canola prices rose due to dry weather, but upcoming precipitation was beneficial for crop growth. International crude oil prices increased by 4%. Domestically, oils were weak, with palm oil falling below 8000 yuan. The operation suggestion was short - term participation and buying September and selling January for soybean oil and palm oil [1][2]. Eggs - The main egg 2508 contract fluctuated at a low level on Wednesday, rising 0.06% to 3515 yuan/500 kilograms, while the 2509 contract continued to decline, falling 0.47%. Spot prices decreased. Terminal demand was weak, and supply was expected to increase before August. It was recommended to wait and see, paying attention to changes in culling intention and feed raw material prices [2]. Pigs - The pig 9 - month contract fluctuated and formed a doji on Wednesday. Spot prices were stable. Due to insufficient terminal demand and farmers' resistance to selling, the market was in a supply - demand game. Technically, it was recommended to focus on the 13500 - yuan support level of the 9 - month contract and maintain a short - term long mindset [2]. Market Information - US President Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by 1% after the release of good CPI data [3]. - China and the US reached a framework on implementing the consensus of the leaders' phone call and Geneva talks [3]. - SPPOMA data showed that Malaysian palm oil production from June 1 - 10, 2025 decreased by 17.24% [3]. - EU and UK's 2025/26 rapeseed production was estimated to remain at 20.4 million tons, but there was a drought risk in Poland [3]. - Indonesia was expected to increase palm oil exports to 25 million tons in 2025, with production recovery and stable international demand [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - Included spreads of contracts like corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, etc., but no specific spread data was provided [5][6][8] Contract Basis - Included basis of contracts such as corn, corn starch, etc., but no specific basis data was provided [13][14][18]