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商务预报:11月3日至9日食用农产品价格略有上涨
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-11-17 07:30
Group 1: Agricultural Product Price Trends - The national edible agricultural product market price increased by 0.4% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables reached 5.69 yuan per kilogram, rising by 1.4%, with notable increases in prices of chives (14.8%), cabbage (8.4%), and asparagus lettuce (5.3%) [1] - The average wholesale price of 6 types of fruits saw a slight increase, with watermelon, grapes, and apples rising by 3.5%, 2.8%, and 0.3% respectively [1] Group 2: Seafood Price Movements - Wholesale prices of seafood experienced slight increases, with large hairtail, large yellow croaker, and silver carp rising by 0.8%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively [2] Group 3: Poultry and Grain Price Changes - Wholesale prices of poultry products increased, with whole chickens and eggs rising by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [3] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed minor fluctuations, with peanut oil increasing by 0.1%, while canola oil and flour remained stable, and rice and soybean oil decreased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [3] - Meat wholesale prices experienced slight fluctuations, with pork priced at 18.60 yuan per kilogram, decreasing by 0.5%, while beef and lamb prices increased by 0.1% [3]
光大期货农产品日报-20251114
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 05:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Corn**: This week, the corn futures and spot prices increased in tandem. Affected by the rising port quotations, the corn futures price continued to rise. The main 2601 contract of corn increased with a reduction in positions, and due to favorable policy expectations, the corn futures and spot prices rebounded jointly. It is recommended to continue participating in short - term long positions [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans reached a 17 - month high. Analysts expect the USDA to lower the US soybean harvest forecast. The domestic soybean meal continued its oscillating and strengthening trend due to cost support. The strategy is to hold futures long positions and sell out - of - the - money call options [1]. - **Oils**: On Thursday, BMD palm oil rose. The domestic rapeseed oil continued to rise, while palm oil showed weak growth. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions [1]. - **Eggs**: On Thursday, egg futures prices continued to correct. The spot egg prices continued to oscillate. Before February next year, the new supply will continue to decline. If the production capacity is eliminated at an accelerated pace, consider going long at low prices; otherwise, treat it with a wide - range oscillation mindset [1]. - **Pigs**: On Thursday, the near - and far - month contracts of live pigs rebounded jointly. The spot pig prices continued to be weak. The far - month 2609 contract of live pigs is expected to continue to oscillate and strengthen, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the 40 - day moving average on the weekly line [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The CONAB monthly report predicts that the soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season will reach 177.6016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1199 million tons or 3.6%. The sown area is expected to reach 49.0634 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 1.7169 million hectares or 3.6%. The yield per unit area is expected to be 3.62 tons per hectare, a year - on - year decrease of 2.0 kg per hectare or 0.1% [2]. - **Winter Wheat Sowing**: As of November 12, the sowing of winter wheat across the country has reached 75%. In the Huang - Huai - Hai region, it has exceeded 75%. By province, the sowing progress in Henan is nearly 70%, in Shandong it has exceeded 80%, in Anhui it is nearly 70%, in Jiangsu it is 55%, in Shaanxi it has exceeded 85%, and in Shanxi it is 85% [3]. - **Sino - US Agricultural Trade**: China will continue to maintain an open and cooperative attitude and deepen mutually beneficial cooperation with global trading partners in agricultural product trade [3]. 3.2 Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but specific data analysis is not provided [5][6][9][11]. - **Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but specific data analysis is not provided [14][17][18][23]. 3.3 Research Team Members - **Wang Na**: The director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, the leader of the top ten research and investment teams at DCE. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times' Best Futures Analyst selection for many years [27]. - **Hou Xueling**: A soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, with more than a decade of futures trading experience. She has also won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in relevant selections for many years [27]. - **Kong Hailan**: A researcher in the egg and live pig industries at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has participated in many media interviews [27].
农产品日报(2025 年6 月13日)-20250613
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 05:08
Research Views Corn - Corn futures showed a short - term adjustment after a rapid rise. The spot price in the Northeast was rising, and the auction price provided support. In North China, the price remained strong, with Shandong's purchase price up 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The price in the sales area rose 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The near - month contract led the rise, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts widened. The 9 - month contract's performance should be watched, and short - term long positions can be considered [1]. Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans were weak on Thursday due to rainfall in the US产区 and limited highlights in the USDA June supply - demand report. Domestic protein meal declined following the external market. There are differences between long and short positions. The long - term logic is based on profit repair and supply uncertainty in the fourth quarter, while the short - term logic is related to improved US weather, weak domestic spot, and good Sino - US relations. Hold long positions in the 91 and 15 spreads of soybean meal and adopt a long - only strategy [1]. Oils - BMD palm oil rose and then fell, affected by supply pressure and inventory increase. High - frequency data showed an increase in exports and a decrease in production in early June. The domestic oil market was weak, with soybean oil falling more than palm oil. Both are in the inventory - building stage, and the price center has shifted down. Short - term participation is recommended, and buy the 9 - month contract and sell the 1 - month contract for soybean oil and palm oil [1]. Eggs - Egg futures declined on Thursday, with the 2508 contract down 0.74% and the 2509 contract down 0.38%. The spot price decreased slightly. The supply will continue to increase before August. Although the plum - rain season has a negative impact on egg prices, the downside is expected to be limited. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in farmers' culling intentions and feed prices [1][2]. Pigs - The September contract of live pigs led the rise, and the near - month contracts followed. The spot price was weak, with the average price in Henan at 14.00 yuan/kg. The market is in a supply - demand game, and the price is expected to adjust slightly. Technically, the September contract has rebounded, supported by raw material costs and policies. A long - only strategy is recommended [2]. Market Information - The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism discussed and implemented the consensus of the leaders' call on June 5 and the Geneva talks, making new progress in addressing each other's concerns. China opposes unilateral tariff increases [3]. - The IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution stating that Iran failed to comply with its nuclear safeguards obligations for the first time in nearly 20 years [3]. - Trump is preparing to sign a key part of the US - UK trade agreement, which will reduce tariffs on UK cars exported to the US in exchange for US beef and ethanol producers' access to the UK market. UK officials hope to sign the agreement this weekend [3]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis is provided [4][5][7][8][11]. Contract Basis - The report shows the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis is given [12][13][17][19][26]. Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a leader of the top ten research teams at DCE. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times [28]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures. She has also won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title and her team has won many awards [28]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute. Her team has won awards at DCE [28].