以下文章来源于城市财经 ，作者余飞 城市财经 . 以数据说话，剖析城市产业、经济与楼市！ 作者： 余飞 来源：城市财经 ------------------------------- 一年一度的中央经济工作会议，已经召开，12月11日通稿已经发布。 这种重量级会议，会对今年经济与社会发展做总结，并部署明年的经济、社会发展路线。 今年的会议特别关键，因为今年是"十四五"收官之年，明年则是"十五五"开局之年。下面本号逐句 分析。 01 "十四五"即将完美收官 会议强调： 今年是很不平凡的一年……全国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼搏，坚定不移贯彻新发展理念、推动高 质量发展，统筹国内国际两个大局，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，经济社会发展主要目标将顺利 完成。我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，现代化产业体系建设持续推进，改革开放迈出新步伐， 重点领域风险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力。过去5年，我们有效应对各种冲击挑战，推 动党和国家事业取得新的重大成就，"十四五"即将圆满收官，第二个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好 开局。 会议开篇对今年以及过去五年做了总结。强调了困难与结果。 也即今年年初定下的5%的经济增速目标大概率会完 ...

Group 1: Midterm Election Insights - The 2026 midterm elections are crucial for Trump, as they will determine the political landscape and his ability to implement policies during his final years in office[1] - Historical data shows that the president's party typically loses an average of 25.7 seats in the House and 3.3 seats in the Senate during midterm elections, with a 36.36% chance of maintaining control after a sweep[11][12] - The significance of the 2026 midterms is heightened for Trump, as a loss could amplify political resistance during his remaining term[17] Group 2: Trade Policy Outlook - Trump's trade policy is expected to remain volatile, with potential for renewed tariff conflicts as a political strategy[25] - The U.S. Supreme Court may rule against Trump's use of IEEPA for imposing tariffs, prompting him to seek alternative legal frameworks for tariff implementation[26][29] - Tariff revenues have significantly increased, reaching approximately $174 billion in the first nine months of 2025, nearly tripling from the previous year[37] Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - The new Federal Reserve chair, expected to take office in May 2026, is anticipated to implement more aggressive rate cuts, with a total of at least four cuts projected by the end of next year[49][51] - The Fed's actions are likely to exceed market expectations and economic needs, resulting in lower interest rates and deteriorating credit conditions[38] - Trump's push for lower rates is driven by the need to stimulate the economy and alleviate fiscal pressures, especially in light of the projected $3.4 trillion deficit from the "Big Beautiful Plan" over the next decade[39][41]