【文/观察者网 柳白】 公然入侵委内瑞拉炫耀武力后，特朗普政府高官们彻底"飘了"。 当地时间1月5日，美国国防部长赫格塞思在美国弗吉尼亚州纽波特纽斯造船厂发表演讲，大力鼓吹美国 要重建"绝对威慑力"，强大到让敌人"不敢"试探美国。他还借打击也门胡塞武装、轰炸伊朗核设施以及 绑架委内瑞拉总统的行动，高呼美国的威慑力回来了。 在谈到中国的部分，赫格塞思称，当美国忙于充当世界警察之际，其"主要竞争对手"中国却不断研究、 借鉴美国的成功经验，正在迅速扩充产能发展海军力量。他表示，美国在致力于与中国等世界各国发展 良好关系的同时，也为潜在冲突做好了万全准备。 在香港英文媒体《南华早报》看来，赫格塞思的演讲是在向中国和俄罗斯发出严厉警告。 赫格塞思眼下正在全美范围内开展"自由兵工厂"巡回演讲，旨在呼吁各方采取行动，重振美国制造业实 力并充实国家劳动力。 赫格塞思此次访问的纽波特纽斯造船厂，是美国唯一能够同时建造和大修核动力航空母舰、并建造核动 力潜艇的造船厂，被视为美国海军最核心、最不可替代的战略级军工基地。 他对着300多名造船工人和水兵说，国家宝贵的自由与国防力量的强大程度息息相关，而捍卫这些自 由，是重中之重。 " ...

【文/观察者网 张菁娟】距离第56届世界经济论坛年会（"达沃斯论坛"）开幕仅剩两周，一场"精英秀 场"已悄然布局。 据英国《金融时报》1月5日报道，美国企业受邀为瑞士小镇的"美国之家"（USA House）提供赞助，目 前微软、麦肯锡等已签约成为赞助商，出资高达100万美元，摩根大通也已收到赞助邀请。 "美国之家"网站介绍，企业赞助的这一场地，将作为美国总统及美国政府官员参会期间的活动基地。对 于大型企业而言，这不仅是"支持美国达沃斯代表团"的重要契机，更能让自身品牌直接亮相于"全球决 策者"视野之中。 "美国之家"的活动将在达沃斯滑雪胜地一座19世纪80年代建成的小教堂内举行。教堂内将布置各类纪念 展品，以纪念1776年《独立宣言》发表250周年。 这座教堂位于达沃斯著名散步道外侧，且处于论坛安保范围之外。但有意参会者已被告知，由于有美国 政府高级官员出席，现场将实施严格的安保规程。 2018年，特朗普首次参加达沃斯时，全球经济处于增长期，美国经济处于强劲复苏阶段，受到减税政策 和财政刺激的推动，股市表现良好，失业率创下新低。2020年，特朗普在论坛上大谈他任职以来新增就 业机会、工资增长等方面的变化。 而 ...

【环球时报驻泰国特派记者 杨一 环球时报驻柬埔寨特约记者 董开映 环球时报特约记者 任重】当地时间10日，泰柬边境新一轮冲突进入第四天。据泰国 《国家报》10日报道，泰国军方表示，泰柬双方冲突在边境多个省份持续。泰国仍在持续打击，柬方则准备提起国际控诉。另据报道，美国总统特朗普表 示，他将于当地时间10日就泰柬新一轮边境冲突进行通话调停。 泰国《曼谷邮报》称，据泰国陆军第二军区通报，10日上午7时15分，柬埔寨向素林府帕侬东拉县发射50余枚BM21火箭。通报称，此举不可接受，对平民 造成极大危险。与此同时，泰国海军也做好战备。据《国家报》10日报道，泰国海军已经发起一项名为"镇压敌人"的重大行动，调动海陆空各方的力量，捍 卫泰国边境的主权。海军"特帕"号军舰全体船员已进入全面战备状态，舰载武器系统已全部装填完毕，随时准备应对任何升级局势。泰海军还警告所有泰国 渔船避免在泰柬海上边界附近航行。 据柬埔寨《高棉时报》报道，柬埔寨官方10日表示，此次冲突已造成该国9名平民死亡，46人受伤，五个省份超过12.7万人被疏散。此外，柬埔寨还宣布撤 回参加今年在泰国举办的第33届东南亚运动会的代表团。同一天上午，泰国国防部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new U.S. National Security Strategy emphasizes prioritizing the Western Hemisphere, critiques Europe, downplays the threat of terrorism, and aims to rebalance external commitments with internal capabilities [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Intervention in Latin America - The report introduces the "Trump Doctrine" as a modern version of the Monroe Doctrine, asserting U.S. intervention rights in Latin America to maintain its dominance [1][2]. - Key objectives include preventing mass immigration, using lethal force against drug cartels if necessary, and ensuring U.S. access to strategic locations in the region [1][2]. Group 2: Global Military Presence Adjustment - The report indicates a shift in U.S. military resources away from regions deemed less critical to national security, particularly Europe, the Middle East, and Africa [4][5]. - The strategy aims to reduce the global security burden by encouraging allies to take on more defense responsibilities and avoiding costly prolonged conflicts [5]. Group 3: Economic and Industrial Focus - The report highlights the importance of economic security as a foundation for national security, advocating for U.S. leadership in key technological fields and a robust defense industrial base [5]. - It calls for expanding access to critical minerals and maintaining dominance in energy and finance to support long-term economic and technological advantages [5]. Group 4: Anti-Immigration and Anti-Globalization Stance - The strategy reflects a vision of "America First," characterized by anti-immigration and anti-globalization sentiments, blaming immigration for various global challenges [7]. - The report warns of a "civilizational decline" in Europe due to immigration policies and economic stagnation, positioning the U.S. as a corrective force [7]. Group 5: U.S.-Russia Relations and Global Power Dynamics - The report expresses a desire to stabilize relations with Russia while criticizing European efforts to resolve the Ukraine crisis [5][8]. - It emphasizes that the U.S. must prevent any nation from becoming too powerful to threaten American interests, reinforcing a power-centric view of international relations [8].

Group 1: Midterm Election Insights - The 2026 midterm elections are crucial for Trump, as they will determine the political landscape and his ability to implement policies during his final years in office[1] - Historical data shows that the president's party typically loses an average of 25.7 seats in the House and 3.3 seats in the Senate during midterm elections, with a 36.36% chance of maintaining control after a sweep[11][12] - The significance of the 2026 midterms is heightened for Trump, as a loss could amplify political resistance during his remaining term[17] Group 2: Trade Policy Outlook - Trump's trade policy is expected to remain volatile, with potential for renewed tariff conflicts as a political strategy[25] - The U.S. Supreme Court may rule against Trump's use of IEEPA for imposing tariffs, prompting him to seek alternative legal frameworks for tariff implementation[26][29] - Tariff revenues have significantly increased, reaching approximately $174 billion in the first nine months of 2025, nearly tripling from the previous year[37] Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - The new Federal Reserve chair, expected to take office in May 2026, is anticipated to implement more aggressive rate cuts, with a total of at least four cuts projected by the end of next year[49][51] - The Fed's actions are likely to exceed market expectations and economic needs, resulting in lower interest rates and deteriorating credit conditions[38] - Trump's push for lower rates is driven by the need to stimulate the economy and alleviate fiscal pressures, especially in light of the projected $3.4 trillion deficit from the "Big Beautiful Plan" over the next decade[39][41]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around Trump's military action against Iran's nuclear facilities, which is seen as a gamble to pressure Iran into negotiations while maintaining a commitment to avoid prolonged warfare [1][5] - The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran came shortly after the airstrikes, raising questions about the effectiveness and sustainability of the ceasefire amidst ongoing hostilities [1][3] - Iran's Foreign Minister stated that a ceasefire would only occur if Israel ceased its attacks, indicating a lack of mutual agreement on the terms of the ceasefire [2][3] Group 2 - Iran's restrained response to the airstrikes included a missile attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar, which did not result in casualties, suggesting a desire to avoid further escalation [3] - Trump's call for talks between Israel and Iran indicates a strategic shift, with the U.S. administration seeking to mediate the conflict while acknowledging Iran's weakened state due to recent military actions [3][5] - Experts express skepticism about the durability of the ceasefire, highlighting the need for negotiations to address unresolved issues regarding Iran's nuclear program and missile capabilities [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent military actions and subsequent ceasefire announcement between Israel and Iran highlight the complexities of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, particularly under President Trump's administration, which aims to balance military intervention with diplomatic negotiations [1][2][5]. Group 1: Military Actions and Ceasefire - President Trump ordered airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, aiming to weaken Iran's nuclear program and support Israel [1]. - Following the airstrikes, Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, although the specifics of the agreement remain unclear [2]. - Iran's response included missile strikes on a U.S. military base in Qatar, indicating a calculated approach to avoid escalating the conflict further [4]. Group 2: Diplomatic Efforts and Challenges - Trump emphasized the need for dialogue between Israel and Iran, with reports suggesting that Iran is willing to accept a ceasefire due to its weakened state following Israeli attacks [4][5]. - Experts express skepticism about the sustainability of the ceasefire and the potential for future negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program and enriched uranium stockpiles [2][6]. - The situation remains precarious, with concerns that Iran may retaliate by targeting U.S. interests in the region if the ceasefire fails [6]. Group 3: Political Implications - Trump's military actions and subsequent diplomatic efforts are seen as a gamble that could either stabilize the region or lead to further conflict, impacting his political standing domestically [5][6]. - The administration's approach aims to appease both interventionist and non-interventionist factions within the Republican Party while addressing criticisms from Democratic lawmakers [6].