◎记者 张琼斯 常佩琦 今年以来，我国强化逆周期调节，实施适度宽松的货币政策。系列措施护航宏观经济大盘，呵护经营主 体预期，维护金融市场韧性。 专家认为，从政策效果看，总体实现了"稳增长、控物价、防风险、促稳定"的多重目标平衡。未来，面 对内外部不确定性，货币政策工具箱储备充足，新型政策性金融工具等增量政策值得期待。 数量型、价格型、结构性工具并举 ——结构性政策方面，既有新工具创设，也有存量工具优化，还有价格的优惠。5月9日，央行设立5000 亿元服务消费与养老再贷款。支农支小再贷款、科技创新和技术改造再贷款政策迎调整优化。 今年上半年，金融总量稳步增长，贷款利率保持在低位，信贷结构持续优化。前5个月，社会融资规模 增量累计为18.63万亿元，比上年同期多3.83万亿元；人民币贷款增加10.68万亿元。5月企业新发放贷款 加权平均利率约3.2%，个人住房新发放贷款加权平均利率约3.1%，分别比上年同期低约50个和55个基 点。 "适度宽松的货币政策发挥了有效作用。"招联首席研究员董希淼表示，今年以来，宏观经济回升向好， 一季度GDP同比增长5.4%、好于预期；金融市场出现积极变化，资本市场在经历波动后回升向 ...

Core Viewpoint - The book "The Hand of Money" critiques the evolving role of central banks in the 21st century, suggesting that traditional economic theories about the "invisible hand" and "visible hand" are inadequate to describe the complexities of modern monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context - The concept of the "invisible hand" was introduced by Adam Smith, emphasizing self-interest in a free market leading to societal benefits [1]. - Alfred Chandler proposed the "visible hand" theory, highlighting the role of management in economic sectors [1]. - John Maynard Keynes introduced the "helping hand" concept, stressing the importance of government intervention in the economy [1]. Group 2: Central Bank's Role - Authors John Van Overtveldt and Stijn Roose argue that the various "hand" metaphors in Western economics apply to central banks but fail to capture their essence in the 21st century, preferring the term "magic" [2]. - The central bank's operations are described as highly specialized and complex, requiring precise timing and understanding, likened to a "deep art" rather than a mere skill [2]. Group 3: Impact of Monetary Policy - The 2008 financial crisis showcased the limitations of traditional monetary policy tools, leading to the adoption of unconventional measures by central banks [3]. - The authors criticize zero interest rate policies for prolonging the existence of inefficient firms, contributing to economic stagnation [3]. - The term "zombie syndrome" is used to describe the negative effects of such policies on economic dynamism [3]. Group 4: Challenges and Recommendations - The book identifies a significant challenge for central banks: the intertwining of unconventional monetary policies and high debt levels [4]. - It suggests that central banks should reassess their inflation targets and incorporate more variables affecting financial stability into their decision-making processes [4]. - The book serves as an introductory guide to central banking and monetary policy, aiming to demystify the role of central banks and enhance their effectiveness in economic regulation [5].

Monetary Policy Outlook - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) signaled important adjustments in monetary policy and exchange rate management for the second half of the year, reflecting a more flexible approach in response to complex economic conditions [1][4] - The second quarter meeting emphasized maintaining an appropriately accommodative monetary policy while enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments and the dual function of monetary policy tools [5][6] Economic Growth Projections - Economic growth is projected at approximately 5.2% for the second quarter, with a target of around 4.7% for the second half to meet the annual growth goal, indicating manageable pressure under current policy measures [5] - Market analysts expect further policy adjustments, including potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts, to support liquidity and economic stability [6] Real Estate Market Stability - The meeting highlighted the need to implement existing financial policies effectively to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on revitalizing existing housing stock and land [9][10] - Data from January to May showed a year-on-year decline in new housing sales area and sales revenue by 2.9% and 3.8%, respectively, although some first- and second-tier cities experienced growth [9] Domestic Circulation Strategy - The PBOC emphasized strengthening domestic circulation as a strategic focus, coordinating supply and demand, and enhancing macro policy coordination to stimulate economic recovery [11] - Recent policies included lowering interest rates on housing provident fund loans and optimizing capital market support tools, with a total of 800 billion yuan allocated for securities and stock repurchase financing [11] Exchange Rate Management - The second quarter meeting shifted its focus from strict measures to enhancing the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilizing market expectations, aiming to maintain the yuan's stability at a reasonable level [12] - Historical data suggests the yuan may be entering a new appreciation cycle, which could help stabilize the global monetary system and support economic growth [12]

2025.06. 27 本文字数：1543，阅读时长大约3分钟 6月27日，据央行网站，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第二季度（总第109次）例会于6月23 日召开。 会议认为，今年以来宏观调控力度加大，货币政策适度宽松，强化逆周期调节，综合运用多种货币政 策工具，服务实体经济高质量发展，为经济持续回升向好创造适宜的货币金融环境。贷款市场报价利 率改革效能持续释放，存款利率市场化调整机制作用有效发挥，货币政策传导效率增强，社会融资成 本处于历史较低水平。外汇市场供求基本平衡，经常账户顺差稳定，外汇储备充足，人民币汇率双向 浮动，在合理均衡水平上保持基本稳定。金融市场总体运行平稳。 会议研究了深化金融供给侧结构性改革相关工作，指出要引导大型银行发挥金融服务实体经济主力军 作用，推动中小银行聚焦主责主业，支持银行补充资本，共同维护金融市场的稳定发展。有效落实好 各类结构性货币政策工具，扎实做好金融"五篇大文章"，加力支持科技创新、提振消费，做好"两 重""两新"等重点领域的融资支持。用好证券、基金、保险公司互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款，探 索常态化的制度安排，维护资本市场稳定。持续做好支持民营经济发展壮大的 ...

日本央行审议摘要：一位成员表示，鉴于当前高度的不确定性，央行应在此阶段维持宽松的货币政策， 保持现行利率水平，以坚决支持经济。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, aligning with market expectations, while the potential for further monetary easing remains influenced by various factors [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy and LPR - The recent financial policies include a comprehensive 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and a decrease in policy rates by 10-25 basis points, leading to a 10 basis point drop in both LPRs [1][4] - The LPR is unlikely to decrease further this month due to the unchanged 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 1.40%, which serves as a reference for LPR [2] - The net interest margin for commercial banks has decreased to 1.43% by the end of Q1 2025, down 9 basis points from the previous quarter, indicating pressure on banks to reduce LPR markups [2] Group 2: Financing Costs and Economic Impact - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans in May were approximately 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively, both down about 50 and 55 basis points year-on-year, reflecting a continued decline in financing costs [2] - The marginal effectiveness of interest rate cuts is diminishing as market rates decrease, with only 7.7% of surveyed enterprises considering loan rates high or processes complex [3] - Future reductions in overall financing costs may focus on lowering non-interest costs such as collateral and intermediary service fees rather than further interest rate cuts [3] Group 3: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC plans to enhance structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors and strategic areas, with an increase in re-lending quotas for technology innovation and small enterprises by 300 billion yuan each [5] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market through targeted measures, including the use of structural monetary policy to promote housing stability [5][6] - The capital market's recovery is supported by structural monetary policy tools, which aim to enhance the "wealth effect" and promote a positive cycle in both stock and real estate markets [6]

海外经济：动能趋弱 美国经济内生动能趋弱。 亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模型预测二季度美国实际GDP年化增速回落0.4pct至3.4%。 个人消费（PCE）增速回落0.6pct至1.9%，主要来自服务分项（1.5%）拖累；私人投资（不含库存）增速回落 0.8pct至0.4%，地产（-4.4%）及建筑（-3.4%）分项加速收缩。 就业形势依然稳健。 周频首次申领失业金人数回落0.3万至24.5万，符合季节性水平。 中东局势恶化增加通胀 压力。 Truflation日频通胀指数上行8bp至2.14%。 财政政策保持扩张立场。 周频财政盈余达到$185亿，弱于季节性水平，财政力度稳定强于历史同期。 货币政策保持观望立场。 美联储于6月议息会议按兵不动，点阵图显示7/18位委员预测年内无法降息，2/18位 委员预测降息1次（25bp），8/18位委员预测降息2次（50bp），2/18位官员预测降息3次（75bp）。 由于地缘冲突主要在周末激化，上周海外市场表现较为平淡，美元小幅反弹，美债利率震荡，黄金高位回落， 人民币延续偏稳行情。 美股方面，上周美股基本持平上涨0.1%。我们认为关税冲击最大的阶段已经过去，美股较大可能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a proactive macroeconomic policy, particularly through the implementation of moderately loose monetary policy, to address the uncertainties arising from the changing external environment and to ensure high-quality economic development [1]. PART.01: Reasons for Implementing Moderately Loose Monetary Policy - Global economic growth is slowing, with increased uncertainty due to rising trade protectionism. The IMF has revised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%, and the WTO has cut the global trade growth forecast from 3.2% to 1.7% [2]. - The slowdown in global trade is primarily attributed to the U.S. government's tariff and trade policies, which have raised trade costs and inflation pressures, leading to reduced investment and economic growth [2]. - China's economy is highly integrated into the global market, with a trade dependence of 72.4% as of April 2025, and external shocks from global trade slowdowns are impacting China's foreign trade growth [2]. PART.02: Understanding Moderately Loose Monetary Policy - Monetary policy focuses on total demand management and counter-cyclical adjustments. It aims to restore balance between total demand and supply, ensuring price stability and economic growth [6]. - Moderately loose monetary policy involves dynamic adjustments based on macroeconomic and financial market changes, utilizing various tools to lower financing costs and stimulate demand [7]. - The policy framework includes five stances: loose, moderately loose, stable, moderately tight, and tight, with adjustments made according to economic conditions [8]. PART.03: Implementing Moderately Loose Monetary Policy - The implementation of moderately loose monetary policy has shown effectiveness in promoting economic growth and managing total demand [10]. - Key measures include lowering policy interest rates and maintaining reasonable growth in money and credit, with significant reductions in loan rates for enterprises and individuals [11]. - The People's Bank of China has introduced ten monetary policy measures to enhance support for the real economy, focusing on total, price, and structural aspects to ensure effective policy transmission and support for key sectors [12][13].

6月19日，英国央行召开货币政策会议，宣布维持基准利率4.25%不变。 英国央行如期维持利率不变 英国央行此次维持利率不变的决定，与周三美联储的行动一致。受此决策影响，英国国债和英镑汇率双 双下挫。 英国央行表示，英国GDP增长似乎仍然疲软，劳动力市场继续走软。迹象表明，随着时间的推移，疲软 的边际已经打开。薪酬增长指标继续放缓，同5月份一样，委员会预计今年剩余时间将显著放缓。 【导读】紧跟美联储，英国央行宣布维持基准利率4.25%不变 交易员还预计，到2026年夏季将有两次进一步的降息，届时利率将稳定在3.5%左右。 中信证券分析师指出，英国央行将锚定美联储政策路径，年内或仅降息两次。若全球经济因关税冲突再 度承压，政策宽松空间或被迫扩大。 英国央行正面临"通胀未达标"与"经济动能减弱"的双重挑战。当前政策利率4.25%仍处于紧缩区间，为 调整留足空间。短期来看，季度性降息将成为平衡通胀与增长的首选工具；中长期而言，全球贸易摩擦 与结构性失业问题或迫使央行采取更激进宽松措施。 挪威、瑞士央行宣布降息 在英国央行决议公布之前，欧洲地区部分其他国家的央行采取了降息行动。 日前，英国国家统计局公布的数据显示，英国 ...

英国央行：强调货币政策并未沿预设路径进行。 ...