中国人民银行网站9月26日消息，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度（总第110次）例会于9 月23日召开。 会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议加强货币政策调控，提高前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据国 内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，抓好各项货币政策措施执行， 充分释放政策效应。 要点速览 要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，加强逆周期调节 保持流动性充裕，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度 畅通货币政策传导机制，提高资金使用效率，防范资金空转 和物价处于合理水平 会议分析了国内外经济金融形势，认为当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻，世界经济增长动能减弱，贸易壁垒 增多，主要经济体经济表现有所分化，通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性。 会议指出，我国经济运行稳中有进，社会信心持续提振，高质量发展取得新成效，但仍面临国内需求不 足、物价低位运行等困难和挑战。要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，加强逆周期调节，更好发挥货币政 策工具的总量和结构双重功能，加大货币财政政策协同配合，促进经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平。 会议提出，保持流动性充裕，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度，使社会融资规模、货币供 ...

当地时间周二（9月23日），美联储主席鲍威尔表示，即便在上周降息之后，他仍认为美联储目前的货 币政策立场是"适度限制的"，这意味着如果决策者继续判断近期劳动力市场的疲软比通胀反弹更值得担 忧，那么今年还有进一步降息的余地。 鲍威尔周二在罗德岛州普罗维登斯商会的一场活动上发表了演讲，他大体重申了上周利率会议后的记者 会上所强调的要点。 在上周的会议上，美联储将基准利率下调至4%–4.25%区间，这是2025年的首次降息。鲍威尔当时称， 这一举措是"风险管理式降息"，旨在应对劳动力市场日益明显的预警信号。 "通胀的近期风险偏向上行，而就业的风险则偏向下行——这是一个充满挑战的局面，"鲍威尔说 道。"双向风险意味着不存在无风险的路径。" 他指出，如果降息过快、幅度过大，可能会让通胀继续徘徊在3%附近，而不是接近美联储2%的目标； 反之，如果过久维持紧缩政策，则可能会不必要地压制劳动力市场。 关于10月28–29日的下一次议息会议，鲍威尔并未释放强烈信号，但他也没有明确反驳市场普遍预期的 再次降息。他表示，官员们将关注增长、就业和通胀数据，并自问："我们的政策位置是否合适？如果 不是，我们就要调整。" 根据上周会议提 ...

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Egypt has significantly cut interest rates by 200 basis points, marking the third rate cut this year, following reductions of 225 and 100 basis points in April and May respectively [1][3] - The overnight deposit rate is now 22.00%, down from 24.00%, and the overnight lending rate is reduced to 23.00% from 25.00% [3] - The Central Bank attributes the rate cut to falling inflation and improving employment conditions, creating space for a gradual easing of monetary policy [1][3] Group 2 - The Egyptian economy is showing signs of recovery, with a real GDP growth rate of 5.4% in Q2 2025, compared to just 2.4% in the previous fiscal year [4] - Inflation has also decreased, with the Q2 inflation rate dropping to 15.2% from 16.5% in the previous quarter, and negative monthly growth rates in July for both overall and core inflation [4] - The Central Bank forecasts an average inflation rate of 14% to 15% for the entire year of 2025, indicating a positive outlook for inflation trends [3][4] Group 3 - The non-oil manufacturing sector grew by 16.03% in Q2, contributing 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth, while the tourism sector saw a 23% increase [7] - Exports have performed exceptionally well, with a 54.4% year-on-year increase in goods and services exports in Q2, significantly outpacing the 18.7% growth in imports [7] - The garment export sector demonstrated strong resilience with a year-on-year growth of 23.7%, highlighting the sector's responsiveness to global demand [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Egypt has significantly cut interest rates by 200 basis points, marking the third rate cut in 2025, driven by declining inflation and improving employment conditions [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - The overnight deposit rate has been reduced from 24.00% to 22.00%, and the overnight lending rate from 25.00% to 23.00% [3]. - The Central Bank aims to anchor inflation expectations and maintain a conducive monetary policy stance, despite ongoing inflation risks [3][5]. - The Central Bank's inflation target is set at 7%, indicating that current inflation levels are still above this target [5]. Group 2: Economic Performance - Egypt's economy is showing signs of recovery, with a real GDP growth rate of 5.4% in Q2 2025, compared to just 2.4% in the previous fiscal year [4][8]. - The non-oil manufacturing sector grew by 16.03% in Q2, contributing 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth, while the tourism sector saw a 23% increase [8]. - Exports of goods and services surged by 54.4% in Q2, significantly outpacing the 18.7% increase in imports, contributing approximately 2.7 percentage points to GDP [8].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain interest rates unchanged during the July monetary policy meeting, citing balanced inflation risks and resilience in the Eurozone economy despite external challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The ECB officials believe that the current interest rate level is appropriate as inflation is close to the 2% target, and the decision to keep rates steady is seen as a "prudent move" [1][2]. - The current deposit rate stands at 2%, which is considered to be in the "neutral range" following eight consecutive rate cuts since the end of last year [2]. Group 2: Inflation Outlook - The ECB expects overall inflation to remain around current levels for the remainder of 2025, with a projected decline to approximately 1.5% by the first quarter of 2026 [3]. - Core inflation is currently at 2.3%, the lowest in three years, with expectations of a further drop to 2% by early next year [3]. Group 3: Communication Strategy - The ECB emphasizes the need for cautious and neutral communication regarding future rate decisions, avoiding overly explicit signals [2]. - The committee maintains a flexible approach to respond swiftly to necessary changes based on evolving data and uncertainties [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the tension between President Trump's actions regarding the Federal Reserve and the recent Supreme Court ruling in the "Trump v. Wilcox" case, which emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve despite the president's authority to dismiss other agency heads [1][3]. Group 1: Supreme Court Ruling - The Supreme Court ruled that while the president has the authority to dismiss heads of independent agencies, this does not extend to Federal Reserve members, thereby preserving the institution's independence [1][3]. - The ruling highlights the importance of maintaining the Federal Reserve's autonomy to prevent political interference in monetary policy, which could lead to long-term economic risks [3][8]. Group 2: Trump's Actions - President Trump announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, directly challenging the Supreme Court's delineation of presidential power over the Federal Reserve [3][7]. - Trump's justification for the dismissal included allegations of misconduct, which appear to be politically motivated rather than based on substantial evidence [7]. Group 3: Legal and Economic Implications - The article notes that the Supreme Court's justices, who generally support a unified executive power theory, face criticism for their inconsistent application of this principle, especially regarding the Federal Reserve [5][9]. - The ongoing legal battle surrounding Cook's dismissal is expected to reach the Supreme Court, raising significant concerns about the future of U.S. economic policy and the potential for political manipulation of monetary policy [9].

Group 1 - The core issue behind the current "political crisis" surrounding the Federal Reserve is whether it can "manipulate" interest rates and the implications of a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve [3][4] - Market expectations for the next "shadow Fed chair" candidates are led by Chris Waller (26.6%), Kevin Hassett (13.7%), and Kevin Warsh (7.9%), all of whom are perceived as having dovish monetary policy stances [10][16] - The Federal Reserve's ability to "set" but not "manipulate" policy rates is emphasized, with long-term interest rates being more influenced by macroeconomic factors than short-term rates [5][47] Group 2 - The transition from "loose fiscal + loose monetary" to "tight fiscal + loose monetary" is suggested as necessary for sustainable fiscal reform, with a historical correlation indicating that a 1% reduction in the fiscal deficit could lower 10-year Treasury yields by 12-35 basis points [7][9] - The U.S. government's fiscal and debt situation is described as being in a "quasi-war state," necessitating fiscal consolidation to manage rising deficits and leverage ratios [9][19] - The Federal Reserve's long-term ability to influence the yield curve is limited, with market pricing often being overly dovish during rate hike cycles and overly hawkish during rate cut cycles [6][41]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) released the monetary policy execution report for Q2 2025, indicating a stable economic performance with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] - The central bank maintains a moderately accommodative monetary policy stance, utilizing various tools to create a favorable monetary environment for sustained economic recovery [1] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of promoting a reasonable rebound in prices as a key consideration for monetary policy, highlighting the focus on price trends [2] - In May, the PBOC lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity into the market, and also reduced policy interest rates [2] - The new corporate and personal housing loan rates decreased by approximately 45 and 60 basis points year-on-year, respectively, from January to June [2] Group 3 - The report provides a clearer stance on exchange rate policies, emphasizing a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand [3] - The RMB exchange rate remained stable, with the midpoint against the USD at the end of June being roughly the same as at the end of the previous year [3] - The PBOC aims to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate and maintain it at a reasonable and balanced level, demonstrating a strong commitment to exchange rate stability [3]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5-4 to lower the Bank Rate from 4.25% to 4% in August 2025, reflecting a significant decline in inflation over the past two years and recognizing existing idle capacity in the economy [1] - The average CPI inflation for Q2 2025 was 3.5%, up from 2.8% in Q1, with June's inflation reaching 3.6%, driven by rising energy, food, and regulated prices [2] - Short-term inflation is expected to peak at 4.0% in September, averaging around 3.75% in the second half of the year, and declining to 3.6% by year-end [2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Labor Market - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 0.1%, indicating weak potential growth with idle capacity at approximately 0.5% of potential GDP [2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.7% in May 2025, projected to reach 4.9% by mid-2026, with job growth stagnating due to rising labor costs [3] - Future GDP growth is expected to fluctuate between 1.2% and 1.7% over the next four years, with household savings rates being a key driver [2] Group 3: Risks and Global Environment - There are increasing medium-term inflation risks due to potential short-term inflation rebounds, global energy price fluctuations, and trade policy changes [3] - Economic growth faces downward pressure from weak domestic demand and geopolitical factors, with ongoing geopolitical risks affecting energy prices [4] - The Bank of England maintains a restrictive monetary policy to guide inflation back to target, with future rate adjustments being data-dependent [4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to implementing monetary policy measures to support economic growth, enhance financial services, and manage financial risks effectively in the second half of 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - The PBOC will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to ensure reasonable credit growth [2][3]. - The aim is to align the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [2]. Group 2: Support for the Real Economy - The PBOC emphasizes enhancing financial services for the real economy, particularly focusing on technology innovation and financing for small and medium-sized enterprises [3]. - There will be increased support for key sectors to resolve structural contradictions and promote industrial upgrades [3]. Group 3: Financial Risk Management - The PBOC is focused on preventing and mitigating financial risks in key areas, including supporting local government financing platform debt management [3][4]. - Enhanced risk monitoring and macro-prudential management will be prioritized [3]. Group 4: Internationalization of the Renminbi - The PBOC aims to promote the international use of the Renminbi, enhancing its financing capabilities and optimizing cross-border capital management [3][4]. - Development of the offshore Renminbi market and support for clearing institutions will be accelerated [4]. Group 5: Financial Market Reform and Opening - The PBOC plans to advance reforms in the bond market and expand the issuance of technology innovation bonds [3][4]. - Revisions to financial market regulations and the facilitation of cross-border investment will be pursued [4]. Group 6: International Financial Cooperation - The PBOC will deepen bilateral and multilateral international monetary cooperation and participate actively in global financial governance [4]. - Efforts will be made to reform the International Monetary Fund's quota system and improve governance structures of international financial organizations [4]. Group 7: Financial Management and Service Improvement - The PBOC will enhance financial management and service levels through legislative initiatives and the establishment of a secure cross-border payment system [4]. - The focus will also be on the construction and promotion of digital currency infrastructure [4].