热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 股指： 周四沪指全天震荡走强，录得7连阳，深成指、创业板指探底回升。个股涨多跌少，沪深京三市超3700 股飘红，今日成交1.94万亿。截止收盘沪指涨0.47%，深成指涨0.33%，创业板指涨0.3%。近期，股指期 货市场围绕10月以来的中枢下沿持续震荡，大小盘指数分化有限，板块间轮动频繁，市场情绪相对温 和。12月政治局会议与中央经济工作会议相继召开，短期内政策对市场的影响有望增强。从政策表述来 看，重要会议提到"实现'十五五'良好开局"，预计明年5%的GDP增长目标不会改变。政策发力方向仍主 要集中在"稳内需"和"促进新质生产力快速发展"。会议提到，"必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结 合"，提振居民收入水平和消费能力是宏观通胀预期回升的重要条件。同时强调"保持必要财政赤字、债 务总规模和支出总量"，表明明年财政政策与货币政策组合发力的政策不会改变，规模可能较今年小幅 提升。海外方面，尽管美联储如期降息25bp，且重启扩表计划，但点阵图显示2026年降息预期存在分 化，美股科技股出现震荡。同时，日本央行也将于近期召开议息会议，关注加息对套息交易 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After experiencing consecutive days of continuous increases, precious metals declined in response to Trump's softening signal on trade negotiations last Friday night, with a moderation in risk aversion and the reappearance of the "TACO" trade. For the future market, attention should be focused on the progress of risk events such as the US government shutdown, credit explosions in US regional banks, and Sino - US negotiations. Even if precious metals correct in the future, it is a healthy market performance, and there is no need to be overly worried about short - term sharp rises and falls. The report tends to believe that the long - term upward foundation of precious metals has not changed [8][10] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals: During the day, precious metals fluctuated within a narrow range. London gold was trading around $4260, and London silver was trading around $52.1. Driven by the external market, Shanghai gold closed down 1.63% at 970.32 yuan/gram, and the main Shanghai silver contract closed down 3.99% at 11,742 yuan/kilogram [3] - Dollar index: The dollar index opened high and closed low, currently trading around 98.5 [4] - US Treasury yields: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was consolidating at a low level, currently trading around 4.024% [5] - RMB exchange rate: The RMB against the US dollar fluctuated within a narrow range, currently trading around 7.1229 [6] Important Information - Tariff trends: He Lifeng had a video call with US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer, and both sides agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks [7] - Fed watch: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 99%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 1%. The probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut by December is 94%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 6% [7] - Geopolitical conflicts: Trump said the US may not provide "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine, and his meeting with Putin will be a "bilateral meeting" [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Go long on Shanghai gold with a light position based on the 5 - day moving average; go long on Shanghai silver with a light position based on the support around the 10 - day moving average [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [12] - Options: Wait and see [13] Data Reference - The report provides multiple sets of data and corresponding charts, including the relationship between the dollar index and precious metal trends, the relationship between real yields and precious metal trends, the trends of domestic and foreign futures, the trends of futures and spot prices, internal and external price differences, the gold - silver ratio, ETF holdings, futures trading volume, futures inventory, trading volume, TD data, and the relationship between Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates [16][19][20]