Core Viewpoint - LianLian Digital, a leading cross-border digital payment platform in China, has achieved robust growth through global expansion and technological innovation, with plans for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2024 to enhance its international competitiveness [1] Financial Performance - The company has built a payment network covering seven core global markets since its establishment in 2009 [1] - From 2020 to 2024, the revenue CAGR is projected to be 22%, with the core global payment business maintaining a gross margin above 70% [1] - Despite short-term pressure on overall gross margin due to business restructuring, losses have been continuously narrowing [1] - In 2024, total revenue is expected to reach 1.315 billion yuan, with global payment business revenue growing by 23.1% year-on-year to 808 million yuan and TPV exceeding 281.5 billion yuan [2] Market and Policy Environment - The payment industry is entering a new phase of compliance and digitalization driven by both policy and market forces [1] - The State Council of China issued the "Regulations on the Supervision and Administration of Non-Bank Payment Institutions" in 2023, which raises entry barriers and strengthens regulation, favoring capital-rich companies [1] - According to Frost & Sullivan, the global cross-border e-commerce GMV is expected to grow at a CAGR of 19.3%, with China's digital payment market TPV projected to reach 354.1 trillion yuan by 2027 [1] - LianLian Digital holds a 9.1% market share as the largest independent payment provider in China, leveraging its licensing advantages [1] Innovation and Strategic Development - The company is enhancing its leading position in cross-border payments through high R&D investment and strategic partnerships [2] - It is exploring next-generation payment solutions using Web 3.0 and stablecoin technologies, indicating a strategic shift from a payment service provider to a digital ecosystem platform [2] - The passage of the "Stablecoin Regulation Draft" in Hong Kong is expected to further drive industry innovation, providing merchants with new opportunities for rate optimization and business closure [1]

Macro Strategy - The "Great Beautiful Act" has been quickly implemented, but its distribution effects and the tightening fiscal impact from excluding extended and expanded tax cuts limit its growth stimulus for the US economy [1][24] - The act's characteristic of "increasing deficits first, reducing deficits later" implies a risk of a "fiscal cliff" around 2028 [1][24] - In the short term, concerns about the impact of US Treasury issuance on market liquidity and yield premiums are not excessive; however, the long-term path dependency of unsustainable US government debt makes it difficult for Treasury yield premiums to decrease [1][24] Fixed Income - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident as the stock market stabilizes, influencing bond yields; the 10-year government bond yield rose from 1.641% to 1.666% during the week [3][5] - The bond market's reaction to Trump's threats of additional tariffs on BRICS countries was muted, indicating a limited impact on bond yields [3][5] - The bond yield's upward trend is expected to continue, influenced by stock market performance, but the extent of the increase is likely to be limited [5] Industry Insights - Wanda Film's diversified layout in esports and concert live streaming is expected to create new growth points, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.0 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.44 billion yuan, respectively [8] - Lianlian Digital is projected to achieve a reasonable P/S valuation of 8.0x and 7.0x for 2025 and 2026, respectively, as it continues to expand its business [10] - Youyou Foods has revised its profit forecast upwards, expecting net profits of 232 million, 285 million, and 329 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a growth rate of 47.2%, 23.2%, and 15.3% [11] - Siyi Electric's net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 1.293 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46%, driven by strong overseas orders [14][15] - The energy sector, represented by Furan Energy, anticipates stable growth in natural gas supply and a steady increase in new energy business, with net profit forecasts of 872 million, 922 million, and 976 million yuan for 2025-2027 [12] - The lithium battery sector, represented by Weilan Lithium Core, has revised its profit expectations upwards, forecasting net profits of 750 million, 1 billion, and 1.31 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting significant growth [13] - The pharmaceutical sector, represented by Lianbang Pharmaceutical, is expected to see revenue growth driven by innovative drug development, with net profits projected at 3.11 billion, 3.10 billion, and 3.38 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [21]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company, LianLian Digital, is positioned as a leading cross-border digital payment platform, leveraging global licenses and stablecoin innovations to drive growth and profitability [9][11]. - The report highlights a significant revenue growth trajectory, with a projected CAGR of 22% from 2020 to 2024, and a notable improvement in net profit margins as the company transitions towards profitability [9][25]. - The regulatory environment is evolving, with new policies promoting compliance and digitalization in the payment industry, which is expected to benefit well-capitalized firms like LianLian Digital [9][33]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - LianLian Digital has established a robust global payment network since its inception in 2009, with a focus on compliance and technological innovation [15]. - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with the actual controller holding approximately 26.84% of the shares, and has implemented long-term incentive plans to attract and retain key talent [18]. - The core team possesses extensive experience in fintech, driving the company's strategic direction and operational management [21]. Industry Development - The payment industry is entering a new phase characterized by increased regulation and digital transformation, with the introduction of the "Non-Bank Payment Institution Supervision and Management Regulations" in 2023 [33][34]. - The digital payment market in China is projected to grow significantly, with total payment volume (TPV) expected to reach 354.1 trillion yuan by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 14.3% from 2022 [38]. Financial Performance and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 1.315 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28% [1]. - The net profit is projected to turn positive in 2025, with a significant increase to 1.399 billion yuan, indicating a 932% year-on-year growth [1]. - The report suggests a P/S valuation of 8.0x for 2025 and 7.0x for 2026, reflecting the company's growth potential [9][14].