2026年动力与风险 在多重逆风中展现出超预期韧性的世界经济进入2026年后所能呈现的复苏底色正变得更为复杂和脆 弱。根据IMF的预测，2026年世界经济将增长3.1%，而经合组织的预测更为谨慎，预计2026年全球经济 增速仅为2.9%；与此同时，世界银行认为2026年世界经济仅可增长2.7% 。三大国际权威机构的数据共 迎着单边主义的恶风，顶着贸易保护主义的逆流，穿过地缘政治的烽火，2025年的世界经济在跨越 多重关隘与险滩中一路顽强前行。按照国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布的最新一期《世界经济展望报 告》，2025年全球经济增长幅度为3.2%，其中发达经济体增速为1.6%，新兴市场和发展中国家增速可 达4.2%，更重要的是，在去年世界经济增长矩阵中，出现了许多大大超乎市场预期的靓丽板块。 2025年靓丽板块 2025年全球资本市场的演变逻辑受到了三重核心动力的直接影响。一是货币政策转向，全球主要央 行开启或酝酿降息周期，压低无风险利率，提振了成长股和黄金的吸引力；二是地缘政治与贸易博弈升 级，大国博弈和地区冲突催生了避险需求，并重塑了国防、科技自主等产业逻辑；三是资产重估与再配 置，在"弱美元"和"去美元化 ...

（原标题：专访弗吉尼亚大学教授：世界迎来基于伙伴关系的"多节点"格局） "多节点"格局更有可能出现 现在每个国家都更加意识到全球政治的不确定性，美国不太可能回到五年前的状态。沃马克强调，在这 种情况下，各国面临着更大的不确定性。他们无法通过让美国的政策更加稳定来控制这种不确定性，因 为这不在他们的控制范围之内。 但他们可以通过与其他同样面临不确定性的国家建立伙伴关系来控制这种不确定性。因此，从这个意义 上说，基于伙伴关系而非联盟的"多节"格局更有可能出现。这种格局符合当前的情况，至于它是否会真 正出现，还有待观察，这取决于相关国家。沃马克强调，基于伙伴关系的"多节点"合作政治比过去几年 更有可能也更有必要。 虽然有学者提出目前世界处于多极秩序，但沃马克认为，这也是有缺陷的，多极意味着一些国家 是"极"而其他国家不是。今天的世界非常复杂，每个国家都在其国际关系中持有自己的观点，作出自己 的决定。 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 三亚报道 在再全球化时代，世界格局迎来重塑。 美国弗吉尼亚大学米勒公共事务中心高级研究员布兰特利·沃马克（Brantly Womack ）在第六届"海洋合 作与治理论坛"上接受21世 ...

"全球科技革命浪潮，以前所未有的速度和力度呼啸而至。"杨云飞开宗明义地指出，生成式AI的"智能 涌现"、智算芯片的算力运力存力大跃迁、高阶智能驾驶的加速落地、商业航天的星海雄心……这些前 沿技术在逼近各自领域的临界点，更在"交叉、交融、交响"，共同推动人类社会的产业变革出现重大范 式转移。 他表示，面对这种根本性的结构变化，"遵循传统范式加大要素投入毫无意义，范式创新才是唯一出 路。" 杨云飞分享了对于当前科技浪潮的三点核心思考。 21世纪经济报道记者 董静怡 广州报道 12月5日，由南方财经全媒体集团指导，21世纪经济报道和渣打银行联合主办，由广东省机器人协会支 持的"粤港澳大湾区新经济发展论坛暨21世纪科技年会"在广州南方财经大厦举行，作为"南方财经论坛 2025年会"的重要专题会议之一。 在开幕环节，南方财经全媒体集团党委副书记、副总经理杨云飞先生发表致辞，他表示，新技术革命以 人工智能为核心引擎，中国经济处于"创新质变"的前夜。 其次，商业的务实主义正在强势回归。杨云飞表示，顶级大模型之间的性能差距正在迅速缩小，这意味 着商业价值的扩散将进入红利期。"前沿技术突破的加速度放缓，下游环节的盈利加速度就会 ...

Group 1 - The global economy is projected to grow at 3.2% in 2025 and slightly decrease to 3.1% in 2026, demonstrating resilience despite challenges such as tariff impacts [3][5] - Three main factors supporting this economic resilience include sustained consumer spending in the U.S., the driving force of the AI wave, and various economic stimulus policies implemented by countries [3][5][7] - U.S. consumer spending has been bolstered by companies absorbing some tariff costs, preventing a significant decline in global trade [3][5] Group 2 - Despite positive growth figures, underlying vulnerabilities and uncertainties persist, such as the anticipated decline in U.S. consumer spending due to reduced excess savings and the gradual impact of tariffs [9][11] - High global debt levels pose a significant risk, with governments, businesses, and households facing substantial debt burdens, leading to potential defaults in some European countries [11][13] - The dependency on stimulus policies may create a vicious cycle, increasing economic fragility as countries rely more on these measures to sustain growth [13][14] Group 3 - The AI wave has emerged as a significant variable influencing the macroeconomy, with high capital expenditures from major U.S. tech companies driving growth in related industries [16][18] - However, concerns about potential bubbles in AI investments are rising, with over half of investors believing there is a bubble, while power supply issues for AI infrastructure could lead to adjustments in tech stocks [18][20] - Long-term structural trends include a shift from globalization to regionalization, the potential return of "American exceptionalism," and the realization of Trump's policy intentions, which may reshape international trade dynamics [21][23][25]

Economic Growth and Consumer Spending - The IMF predicts a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, which is similar to last year's performance, supported by strong consumer spending in the U.S. [1] - In Q2 2025, U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 2.5%, indicating that consumers are still willing to spend [1]. Impact of Tariffs and Corporate Performance - PCE is expected to decline to 2% in Q3 and further to 1.5% in Q4, with the negative effects of tariffs starting to manifest, particularly impacting high-end manufacturing in Europe [3]. - Companies like LVMH reported an 8% revenue drop, and Porsche's operating profit plummeted by 99%, attributed to the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs [3]. Technology Sector and AI Investment - The five major U.S. tech companies (Meta, Google, Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon) are projected to increase their capital expenditures by 30% annually by 2027, highlighting the significant role of AI in driving economic growth [3]. - Alibaba's AI-related revenue has seen triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters, with Alibaba Cloud's growth reaching 18% [5]. Global Debt and Economic Risks - Global debt is expected to exceed $337.7 trillion by 2025, with an increase of $21 trillion in the first half of the year, raising concerns about the sustainability of this debt burden [8]. - Many European countries are facing bankruptcy risks, indicating a precarious economic situation [8]. Structural Changes in Global Trade - The world is experiencing a "re-globalization" trend, moving away from "de-globalization," with countries seeking diversified trade partners and reshaping global supply chains [9]. - Tariff policies under the Trump administration have created a more complex global trade environment, with varying rates for allies and other nations [12]. Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The Federal Reserve's independence is crucial for maintaining stability in U.S. debt rates and the dollar, with potential fluctuations expected in the market [14]. - Investors are currently wary of the dollar, but a rebound is anticipated, contingent on the Fed's ability to maintain its policy independence [14]. Economic Challenges Ahead - The global economy is facing a slowdown, with high debt levels and reliance on stimulus measures creating a vicious cycle [16]. - Structural inflation persists, making it difficult for governments, businesses, and consumers to navigate a high-interest, high-debt environment [18].

其次，改革应推动规则更新与机制优化。确保协商一致原则不沦为决策僵局，重建高效可信的争端解决 机制，提升成员广泛参与度，让所有成员都能共享贸易发展带来的红利。这正是世贸组织秘书处倡导 的"再全球化"理念的核心要义。 再次，改革必须回应当前经济形势的深刻变化。世贸组织规则上次重大革新是在30多年前的乌拉圭回合 谈判。当时全球价值链尚未形成，数字革命刚刚起步。如今，服务贸易、数据流动和人工智能正在深刻 重塑贸易形态。世贸组织最新发布的《2025世界贸易报告》指出，如能有效弥合数字鸿沟，仅人工智能 一项就可能在2040年推动全球贸易额增长近40%。如果多边贸易体制无法顺应这一趋势，就可能被边缘 化。 首先，改革必须立足于全球贸易体系的有效根基。世贸组织之所以不可替代，在于其在全球经济治理中 承担着制定贸易规则、促进成员对话、提供争端解决机制等基础性功能。规则缺失，则不确定性上升； 对话缺位，则合作难以为继；争端解决机制弱化，则矛盾更易激化。改革就是要让这些根基更加公平、 高效、符合时代发展趋势。 改革议题已成为将于2026年3月召开的世贸组织第14届部长级会议的核心内容。应对当下挑战，需要新 的思路和智慧。从本质上看 ...

Group 1 - The root of tariff issues lies in domestic politics of relevant countries, reflecting internal contradictions rather than being a true global issue. Globalization may evolve but will not disappear as human trade history has never been interrupted [1] - The current global economic landscape is not moving towards "de-globalization" but rather entering a phase of "re-globalization," leading to the formation of two distinct economic groups and a potential "third group" of countries [1] - Optimism about the future of the global economy suggests that fragmentation will improve over the next decade, leading to a more interconnected global economy driven by innovation, technology, and consumers [1] Group 2 - U.S. consumers are primarily concerned about inflation, which has created two distinct groups: those with assets who have seen purchasing power increase, and those facing economic pressure. Understanding this trend is key to grasping consumer behavior [2] - Investment strategies should focus on maintaining high diversification and a certain level of cash position, as the market is closer to a correction than to a further 10%-20% increase [2] - The core investment advice includes diversifying from current market leaders, with a focus on the shift in the dollar cycle, accelerated asset diversification, the entrepreneurial wave in Asia (especially China), and undervalued energy stocks compared to AI stocks [3]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes Hong Kong's strategic position as a key hub for entrepreneurs to seize new opportunities amid a shifting global economic landscape [2][6][7] Group 1: Program Overview - Tsinghua Wudaokou's "Zijing Plan" is the first flagship program focused on Hong Kong and globalization, set to commence on February 4 [3][7] - The program gathers top talents from various fields, including decision-makers from listed companies and leaders in AI and biotechnology, covering critical areas such as capital markets and technological innovation [3][6] - The curriculum is designed around a three-dimensional learning system: systematic lectures, in-depth discussions, and on-site visits to key institutions like the Hong Kong government and the Stock Exchange [3][7][14] Group 2: Learning Objectives - The program aims to help entrepreneurs understand Hong Kong's social culture, integrate into the local business ecosystem, and grasp opportunities in AI and Web3 [6][7] - Participants will gain insights into Hong Kong's unique advantages as a global financial center, free trade hub, and fintech testing ground [7][14] - The initiative encourages exploration of business opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region and the Belt and Road Initiative [6][14] Group 3: Networking and Collaboration - The program facilitates deep interactions with leaders from Hong Kong's financial, legal, and technological sectors, providing access to international resources and perspectives [15][32] - It aims to create a cross-regional and cross-industry platform for collaboration among entrepreneurs from both Hong Kong and mainland China [32][33] - Participants are encouraged to leverage Hong Kong as a strategic point for further development and global expansion [33]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing "decoupling" between the US and China, highlighting the shift from cooperation to competition, and the implications for global trade, investment, and technology [2][3][4]. Trade Implications - The US has maintained high tariffs on Chinese goods since 2018, with an average tariff expected to exceed 20% under a potential second Trump administration, affecting various industries [3] - Companies have relocated production to countries like Vietnam, Mexico, and Malaysia to mitigate the impact of tariffs, resulting in a significant shift in supply chains [3] - The change in origin labels from "Made in China" to "Made in Vietnam" illustrates the transformation in sourcing strategies [3] Capital and Technology Decoupling - US venture capital, once a driving force for Chinese tech startups, has largely withdrawn, with increased scrutiny on foreign investments in sensitive sectors like chips and AI [3] - The concept of "regionalized operations" is emerging, where sensitive technologies remain in the US while lower-value industries are outsourced [3][4] Psychological Shift - There is a growing consensus in the US across various sectors that reliance on China poses risks, prompting a desire to diversify supply chains [4] China's Response - The Chinese government is promoting a "self-sufficiency" movement in technology, driven by past experiences like the Huawei incident [5] - The relationship between the US and China is evolving towards a "gradual distancing" rather than a complete separation, as seen in the production strategies of companies like Apple [5] Economic Impact - The decoupling is expected to lead to higher production costs and persistent inflation in the US, while China may face reduced exports and foreign investment, impacting growth potential [6] - In 2025, foreign direct investment in China is projected to be $23.2 billion, the second-lowest level since 2003 [6] Global Economic Trends - The world is transitioning from "global integration" to "regional multipolarity," creating new investment opportunities in various regions [7] - The decoupling is not a temporary issue but a long-term reality, requiring investors to adapt their strategies to find new opportunities in a changing landscape [7]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The global container shipping industry is experiencing increased volatility due to factors such as tariff changes and geopolitical tensions, yet international trade volume continues to grow, indicating a shift towards "re-globalization" with emerging markets in Africa, South America, and South Asia becoming key growth nodes [1][8] - The container supply chain sentiment index remains in a positive range, with a reported index of 176.61 in July 2025, reflecting an upward trend in new container production and slight price increases [4][5] Group 2: Company Performance - CIMC Group reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, achieving operating income of 76.09 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.278 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 47.63% [2] - The container manufacturing segment remains a strong pillar for CIMC Group, with revenues of 21.735 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.444 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.2% increase year-on-year, alongside a record sales volume of 1.1259 million TEU for dry containers [2][3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite uncertainties from tariff changes, domestic trade in China is steadily growing, with a reported import and export volume of 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, up 2.9% year-on-year [4] - The demand for refrigerated containers has surged, with sales reaching 92,000 TEU, doubling year-on-year, driven by strong export demand for fruits from South America [2][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The global container shipping market is projected to see a trade volume increase of 2.5% by the end of 2025, reaching 219 million TEU, supported by a significant rise in imports to the U.S. and exports from the EU [5][6] - Shipping companies are actively preparing for emerging markets and new shipping routes, with new container ship orders reaching 1.9201 million TEU in the first half of 2025, a 25.78% increase from the same period in 2024 [9]