Group 1: Research Background - Steel mills are showing high production enthusiasm, with pig iron output reaching the highest level for the same period since March before starting to decline, leading to accumulated supply pressure [1] - Hebei, as the largest steel production base in China, accounts for 20%-30% of the national output, primarily in plate products, making its production dynamics significantly influential on the national market [1] - The demand for steel is expected to decline seasonally, but the "export rush" effect has shown strong resilience in steel demand, with export volumes increasing year-on-year [1] Group 2: Production and Output - Most steel mills have adopted an over-ordering strategy, with orders from downstream processing plants typically ranging from 15 to 30 days, and some products scheduled for production until the end of July [2] - Steel mills are currently enjoying decent profits, with immediate profits around 100-200 yuan per ton, and some mills achieving net profits exceeding 100 yuan per ton [2] Group 3: Export Situation - Export profits remain acceptable, with increases in the export volumes of rebar, steel billets, and wire rods, particularly to the Middle East and Africa, while reductions are noted in exports to South Korea and Japan [4] - There is potential for screening orders in steel billet exports, and while some believe that the export rush may deplete future demand, the actual impact may not be as significant as anticipated [4] Group 4: Inventory and Expectations - Inventory levels among steel mills and traders are low, with steel mill inventories dropping from 20,000 tons to 4,000 tons, indicating a need for inventory building based on market fluctuations [6] - Some anticipate that upcoming events such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in July and the World University Games in August may impact short-term supply, while others doubt the effectiveness of policy-driven production restrictions due to local GDP pressures [6] Group 5: Seasonal Demand Outlook - The negative feedback from the industrial sector in June may be difficult to realize, as steel mills are currently profitable and production is stable, making significant production cuts unlikely [7] - The resilience of plate demand is a key variable influencing the overall demand for steel during the off-season, with expectations that plate demand may outperform market predictions [7] Group 6: Specific Situations in Steel Mills and Processing Plants - A hot-rolled processing enterprise reported a production capacity of 4 million tons, with a focus on color-coated products, and is experiencing high demand, with orders extending to the end of July [9] - A steel mill's trading department noted that orders for various steel products are generally over 25 days, with net profits ranging from 50 to 100 yuan per ton, and a positive outlook on the market despite regional pressures [10] - A cold-rolled sales department indicated that exports are primarily directed towards Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with a notable increase in orders, although the overall export volume is slightly weaker compared to previous months [11] Group 7: Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The current market is characterized by strong realities and weak expectations, with healthy inventory levels and order volumes, suggesting that the anticipated negative feedback may not materialize [8] - The steel price may experience fluctuations, with potential upward movement if the current strong reality persists, despite the overall market sentiment being cautious [12]

博兴是"中国金属板材之乡"，当地集中了众多的镀锌彩涂加工厂，产品以出口为主。 轧硬是热轧钢卷经过酸洗，再通过冷轧机轧制变薄，但未进行退火处理的产品，是生产镀锌及其附属产 品的原材料，博兴地区对轧硬的需求庞大。 然而，因行情及结算价等因素影响，近年来当地加工企业与钢厂的协议量逐渐减少，反而更多通过贸易 商的渠道进行采购。 项目背景 A企业是博兴当地经营轧硬品种的贸易商，月销量在20万~25万吨。为了更好地服务当地加工企业，A企 业需要常备轧硬现货库存，并在钢厂不定期批量采购。现货库存高保证了A企业能够及时为下游加工企 业提供所需产品，增强客户黏性，但同时也给A企业自身经营带来了风险。春节后，基于对品种基本面 的判断，笔者所在期货公司认为钢材价格下跌风险增大，A企业现货库存水平偏高，其经营利润可能下 滑。 实施过程 考虑到此时基差相对合适，公司助力A企业将其3万吨常备库存通过HC2505合约进行套保操作，开仓时 基差为-160元/吨。 受到"抢出口"影响，春节后，博兴地区加工企业排单周期拉长，轧硬需求增长，现货价格偏强运行。而 此时，期货价格受到海外宏观形势、美国关税政策、反倾销等一系列因素影响，走势依然偏弱。轧 ...