Core Viewpoint - The rapid expansion and subsequent decline of "沪上阿姨" (Hushang Ayi) highlights the challenges of balancing scale and profitability in the competitive tea beverage market, leading to questions about its long-term viability [1][19]. Financial Performance - After its IPO, "沪上阿姨" saw its stock price fluctuate significantly, peaking at a market value of 20 billion HKD before declining to 16.6 billion HKD within two months [3][5]. - In 2024, the company's revenue was 3.285 billion RMB, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 15.2% to 329 million RMB, marking the first decline in both metrics in three years [5][6]. - The company's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio was 51.95 at IPO, significantly higher than competitors, indicating a disconnect between performance and valuation [6]. Business Model and Expansion - "沪上阿姨" relies heavily on a franchise model, with 99.7% of its 9,176 stores being franchises, leading to a high closure rate of 12.7% in 2024 [6][8]. - The franchise-related revenue increased from 94.3% of total revenue in 2022 to 96.5% in 2024, indicating a growing dependency on this model [6][7]. - Despite a significant increase in store count, the average store performance has declined, with average GMV dropping from 1.5 million RMB in 2022 to 1.37 million RMB in 2024 [7][14]. Market Position and Competition - "沪上阿姨" operates in a highly competitive mid-range tea beverage market, facing pressure from both low-cost competitors like "蜜雪冰城" (Mixue Bingcheng) and premium brands like "奈雪的茶" (Naixue Tea) [11][12]. - The company’s market share was 8.9% as of the end of 2023, ranking third in terms of store count but fourth in GMV [12]. - The average GMV per order has decreased, reflecting increased price sensitivity among consumers [12][13]. Operational Challenges - The company has faced high closure rates among franchises, with significant operational inefficiencies due to a dispersed store layout, leading to increased logistics costs [8][9][15]. - Food safety issues have also plagued the brand, with multiple incidents leading to regulatory scrutiny [9][10]. - The brand's frequent changes in positioning and marketing strategies have resulted in consumer confusion and a diluted brand image [18]. Strategic Initiatives - To combat competition, "沪上阿姨" has launched multiple sub-brands, including "沪咖" (Hukafe) and "轻享版" (Light Enjoy), but these efforts have not yet yielded significant results [13][14]. - The company aims to optimize its supply chain and focus on regional markets rather than nationwide expansion to improve efficiency and profitability [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services sector [3][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the competitive advantage of "Hushang Ayi" in the northern market with its three major brands covering various price ranges in tea and coffee [1][11]. - The company experienced a slight revenue decline in 2024, with total revenue of 3.28 billion CNY, down 1.9% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit increased by 0.5% to 420 million CNY [1][31]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the mid-priced tea drink segment, which is expected to continue expanding significantly [16][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - "Hushang Ayi" was established in 2013 and has developed three major brands: "Hushang Ayi," "Hukafe," and "Light Enjoyment Version," covering price ranges from 7 to 32 CNY [1][11]. - As of the end of 2024, the company operated 9,176 stores, with 99.7% being franchise stores, and approximately 4,000 located in northern China [1][31]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin increase of 0.9 percentage points, benefiting from a higher proportion of franchise business and improved supply chain efficiency [1][31]. - The adjusted net profit margin for 2024 was 12.7%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase [31]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the ready-to-drink tea market in China was valued at approximately 25.9 billion CNY in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.0% from 2018 to 2023 [16][19]. - The mid-priced ready-to-drink tea segment accounted for 51.3% of the total market GMV in 2023, with expectations to rise to 54.1% by 2028 [19][24]. Competitive Landscape - The mid-priced ready-to-drink tea segment has a higher concentration, with the top five brands holding nearly 60% of the market share by GMV [24][26]. - "Hushang Ayi" ranks as the fifth largest ready-to-drink tea brand in China by GMV, holding a market share of 4.6% [26][28]. Store Expansion and Performance - The company opened 1,387 new stores in 2024, marking a 17.8% increase in total store count [31][40]. - The average GMV per store for the main brand "Hushang Ayi" was 1.37 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a 12% decline year-on-year [40][42].