机构：华泰证券 研究员：樊俊豪/张霜凝 渠道结构持续调整，龙店开设稳步推进 截至4Q25，李宁（不包括李宁YOUNG）门店6091 个，季度净关41 个，全年净关26 个，其中直营/批发 门店净关59 个/净开33 个；童装门店1518个，季度净增38 个，全年净增50 个，继续保持扩张态势。受 益于亏损店关闭及开关店节奏较好，2H25 渠道费用控制较好。此外，公司正积极布局多个垂类新店 型，包括龙店、户外店、篮球店，预计龙店未来1-2 个月内将在全国开设十余家快闪/慢闪店（我们统计 截至1.15 已开9 家），故宫花园店春节前后有望亮相、上海南京东路的龙店首店或将于2026 年中亮相。 折扣受暖冬影响加大，库销比回归健康区间 我们预计4Q25 整体折扣同比及环比均加深低单位数，线下折扣绝对水平略深于6.5 折（含奥莱），其中 12 月因冬季气温偏暖，公司加大冬装清货力度，导致折扣加深幅度较为显著。但在积极的库存管理 下，我们预计期末全渠道库销比已回落至4-5 个月的健康区间，各渠道的库龄结构亦保持良好。 盈利预测与估值 考虑到25 年公司精细化管理有望优化费用水平，带动盈利能力持续提升，但26 年作为奥运大 ...

Company Overview - The company reported a decline in retail sales for the Li Ning brand (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year decrease in retail revenue in the mid-single digits, while net retail points increased by 33 during the quarter [1] - The weak retail environment in Q3 2025 negatively impacted sales performance, with deeper discounts year-on-year and increased inventory due to preemptive stocking [1] Sales Performance - Retail pressure intensified from July to September 2025, with the direct sales channel benefiting from outlet support and proactive adjustments, resulting in a mid-single-digit decline in retail revenue, which was better than the high single-digit decline in the wholesale channel [1] - Online channel revenue showed a year-on-year increase in the mid-single digits [1] - Key growth drivers included running, fitness, and badminton, with running and fitness achieving low single-digit revenue growth year-on-year, while basketball and lifestyle categories faced relative pressure [1] Inventory and Discount Strategy - To address weak sales, the company proactively adjusted its terminal strategy, resulting in a low single-digit increase in overall channel retail discounts year-on-year, with direct and online channels experiencing a greater increase than wholesale [1] - By the end of September, the inventory-to-sales ratio reached 5-6 times, indicating a healthy inventory structure, with management expressing confidence in returning to a healthy level of 4-5 times by year-end [1] Future Outlook - In Q4 2025, the company plans to focus on the Olympic and sports technology themes to enhance brand momentum and support sustainable growth, while iterating and updating product lines in running, basketball, cross-training, and outdoor categories [2] - The retail side will further balance sales, discounts, and inventory management to maintain a healthy inventory level, despite ongoing sales pressure [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 0.92 and 1.07 CNY, respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to 18 and 15 times the 2025 and 2026 P/E ratios [2] - The company retains an outperform rating and target price of 22.68 HKD, which corresponds to 23 and 19 times the 2025 and 2026 P/E ratios, indicating a 25% upside potential from the current stock price [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Ning [3][9] Core Insights - Li Ning's Q3 2025 revenue showed a marginal decline, with e-commerce and children's apparel performing relatively better. The overall revenue decreased in the mid-single digits year-on-year, while online sales grew in the high single digits, and offline sales declined in the high single digits [9] - The company anticipates maintaining its performance guidance for 2025, aiming for flat revenue and a high single-digit net profit margin despite facing some pressures. Upcoming marketing initiatives related to the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics and technology releases are expected to enhance brand competitiveness [9] Financial Summary - Revenue projections (in billion RMB): - 2023: 27.6 - 2024: 28.7 - 2025E: 28.8 - 2026E: 30.1 - 2027E: 31.2 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023: 7% - 2024: 4% - 2025: 0% - 2026: 4% - 2027: 4% [8] - Net profit projections (in billion RMB): - 2023: 3.19 - 2024: 3.01 - 2025E: 2.48 - 2026E: 2.64 - 2027E: 2.78 - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit: - 2023: -22% - 2024: -5% - 2025: -18% - 2026: 6% - 2027: 5% [8] Operational Insights - The discount rate has deepened slightly due to increased inventory turnover, with expectations to return to a 4-5 month inventory turnover by year-end. The overall inventory turnover ratio is currently at 5-6 months [9] - The number of sales points (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) increased to 6,132, with a net addition of 33 points in the current year. The company plans to close 10-20 direct stores while increasing wholesale points by 50 [9]