机构：华泰证券 研究员：樊俊豪/张霜凝 渠道结构持续调整，龙店开设稳步推进 截至4Q25，李宁（不包括李宁YOUNG）门店6091 个，季度净关41 个，全年净关26 个，其中直营/批发 门店净关59 个/净开33 个；童装门店1518个，季度净增38 个，全年净增50 个，继续保持扩张态势。受 益于亏损店关闭及开关店节奏较好，2H25 渠道费用控制较好。此外，公司正积极布局多个垂类新店 型，包括龙店、户外店、篮球店，预计龙店未来1-2 个月内将在全国开设十余家快闪/慢闪店（我们统计 截至1.15 已开9 家），故宫花园店春节前后有望亮相、上海南京东路的龙店首店或将于2026 年中亮相。 折扣受暖冬影响加大，库销比回归健康区间 我们预计4Q25 整体折扣同比及环比均加深低单位数，线下折扣绝对水平略深于6.5 折（含奥莱），其中 12 月因冬季气温偏暖，公司加大冬装清货力度，导致折扣加深幅度较为显著。但在积极的库存管理 下，我们预计期末全渠道库销比已回落至4-5 个月的健康区间，各渠道的库龄结构亦保持良好。 盈利预测与估值 考虑到25 年公司精细化管理有望优化费用水平，带动盈利能力持续提升，但26 年作为奥运大 ...

严峻市场压力下，耐克需要给在华团队进一步放权。 近期，耐克宣布，大中华区等四个区域负责人直接进入高级领导管理层，向全球CEO汇报，以加速推进 Win Now计划。 "门店客流下降、当季产品销售率疲软、市场整体老化库存水平偏高。我们的品牌在消费者心中逐渐沦 为折扣品牌（尤其在数字渠道），这影响了整个整合市场的高端定位。这些挑战导致折扣销售占比上 升、降价幅度扩大、销售相关退货增加、批发折扣提高，以及为清理市场库存产生的高额报废费用—— 这一循环对大中华区的盈利能力造成了重大影响。"业绩会上，耐克执行副总裁兼首席财务官马修·弗兰 德（Matthew Friend）说。 背后是，中国运动市场的竞争走向白热化。 一方面，市场正走向存量。央行城镇储户问卷调查显示，倾向于更多消费的储户比例，从2025年二季度 的23.3%，下降到三季度的19.2%。 落地到具体高管，便是耐克大中华区董事长兼CEO董炜进一步升职。"我期待与她及团队展开更紧密的 合作。"在业绩会上，耐克集团总裁兼首席执行官贺雁峰（Elliott Hill）说。 需要注意的是，董炜近年一直在被重用。2024年10月，她就已升任耐克大中华区董事长兼CEO，并担 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities maintains a "Buy" rating on Nike, highlighting strong performance in the North American market and running category, although this is partially offset by weak performance in China [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The second fiscal quarter results indicate that while North America shows positive trends, the weak Chinese business has dampened overall performance [1] - The company has lowered its earnings per share forecasts for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 to $1.39 and $2.40, respectively, and reduced the target price from $84 to $73, reflecting a projected price-to-earnings ratio of about 30 times for fiscal year 2027 [1] Group 2: Market Insights - Nike's guidance for third fiscal quarter revenue indicates a low single-digit decline, while Bank of America expects North American business to grow by 2% [1] - The focus of Nike's North American business is shifting back to wholesale, with improvements noted in spring and summer wholesale orders [1] Group 3: Regional Analysis - The Chinese market is projected to account for only 13% of sales by fiscal year 2026, a significant decline from peak levels, with ongoing sales and margin pressures expected for the remainder of fiscal year 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning needs to regain lost time as its recent financial performance shows only a slight revenue increase while profits are declining, especially compared to competitors like Anta and Adidas [1][3] Financial Performance - Li Ning's revenue for the first half of the year reached 14.817 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, but gross margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 50% and operating profit margin fell by 0.2% [1] - In comparison, Anta's revenue was 33.735 billion yuan and Adidas China reported approximately 15.263 billion yuan, indicating Li Ning's significant lag behind its competitors [1] Market Strategy - Li Ning is diversifying its strategy by entering the outdoor market through its family investment in the Swedish outdoor brand Haglöfs, which is expanding its presence in China [3][6] - The outdoor category is showing strong growth in China, with Anta's other brands experiencing retail sales growth of 60%-65% [3][4] Competitive Landscape - Li Ning's core categories of running and basketball are facing challenges, with a 21% decline in basketball revenue for 2024 [3][4] - The outdoor market is becoming increasingly competitive, with various brands like The North Face and Columbia also gaining traction in China [12][14] Brand Positioning - Haglöfs is being positioned as a high-end outdoor brand, similar to how Anta has positioned its brand Arc'teryx, aiming to attract a new generation of consumers seeking high-quality outdoor products [10][12] - Li Ning is not directly managing Haglöfs, which limits the potential for resource sharing and synergy that competitors like Anta enjoy [16] Future Opportunities - Li Ning has the opportunity to enhance its brand image and international presence by becoming a partner for the Chinese Olympic Committee, covering major international events from 2026 to 2028 [16][17] - The company is also focusing on improving operational efficiency and expanding into lower-tier cities to enhance profitability [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HKD 19.2 for 2025, based on a 20x PE ratio [1][4][7]. Core Insights - Li Ning's overall platform revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, with offline channels experiencing low single-digit decline while e-commerce channels saw mid-single-digit growth [2][4]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the running and fitness categories, both achieving high single-digit growth, while the basketball category faced a decline of over 20% due to market conditions [2][3]. - The company continues to optimize its channel structure, with a net decrease of 18 stores year-to-date, and plans to expand new store layouts as per strategy [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: 2025E at RMB 28,698 million, 2026E at RMB 30,498 million, and 2027E at RMB 31,943 million, reflecting growth rates of 0.1%, 6.3%, and 4.7% respectively [5][12]. - The forecasted EPS for 2025 is RMB 0.88, with a decline in net profit expected to RMB 2,269 million, a decrease of 24.7% compared to the previous year [5][12]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 49.2% for 2025, with a slight increase to 49.5% by 2027 [5][13].

Core Viewpoint - In a challenging market environment in 2024, Li Ning Company reported a solid performance with a revenue of 28.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, and a gross profit margin improvement of 1 percentage point [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 reached 28.68 billion yuan, up 3.9% year-on-year - Gross profit increased by 6.0% to 14.16 billion yuan - Operating cash flow grew by 12.4% to 5.27 billion yuan - Cash reserves increased by 2.06 billion yuan to 7.5 billion yuan - Dividend payout ratio rose to 50% [1] Strategic Focus - The company maintains a "single brand, multiple categories, and multiple channels" strategy, which has been crucial for sustaining operational quality in a challenging market [1] - Li Ning emphasizes that "steady operation does not mean conservative operation," indicating a proactive approach to business management [1] Product Categories and Market Position - Li Ning focuses on a single brand strategy while deepening its multiple product categories, including running, basketball, training, badminton, table tennis, and lifestyle sports [3] - In 2024, running, basketball, and training categories accounted for 64% of total sales [3] - The running category saw a retail sales increase of 25% in 2024, with significant sales of core running shoe lines [4] Inventory and Channel Management - Li Ning has optimized its inventory management system, maintaining a healthy inventory turnover ratio of 4 months and controlling inventory turnover days at 64 days [6] - The company has a total of 6,117 brand stores and 1,468 Li Ning YOUNG stores as of the end of 2024, with ongoing efforts to explore innovative channel models [6] Professional Sports Engagement - Li Ning has strengthened its position in professional sports by becoming the official partner of the Chinese Olympic Committee and supporting various national teams [7][8] - The company’s long-term partnerships with elite sports teams have contributed to its professional credibility and market presence [7][8]