Core Viewpoint - Li Ning needs to regain lost time as its recent financial performance shows only a slight revenue increase while profits are declining, especially compared to competitors like Anta and Adidas [1][3] Financial Performance - Li Ning's revenue for the first half of the year reached 14.817 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, but gross margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 50% and operating profit margin fell by 0.2% [1] - In comparison, Anta's revenue was 33.735 billion yuan and Adidas China reported approximately 15.263 billion yuan, indicating Li Ning's significant lag behind its competitors [1] Market Strategy - Li Ning is diversifying its strategy by entering the outdoor market through its family investment in the Swedish outdoor brand Haglöfs, which is expanding its presence in China [3][6] - The outdoor category is showing strong growth in China, with Anta's other brands experiencing retail sales growth of 60%-65% [3][4] Competitive Landscape - Li Ning's core categories of running and basketball are facing challenges, with a 21% decline in basketball revenue for 2024 [3][4] - The outdoor market is becoming increasingly competitive, with various brands like The North Face and Columbia also gaining traction in China [12][14] Brand Positioning - Haglöfs is being positioned as a high-end outdoor brand, similar to how Anta has positioned its brand Arc'teryx, aiming to attract a new generation of consumers seeking high-quality outdoor products [10][12] - Li Ning is not directly managing Haglöfs, which limits the potential for resource sharing and synergy that competitors like Anta enjoy [16] Future Opportunities - Li Ning has the opportunity to enhance its brand image and international presence by becoming a partner for the Chinese Olympic Committee, covering major international events from 2026 to 2028 [16][17] - The company is also focusing on improving operational efficiency and expanding into lower-tier cities to enhance profitability [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HKD 19.2 for 2025, based on a 20x PE ratio [1][4][7]. Core Insights - Li Ning's overall platform revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, with offline channels experiencing low single-digit decline while e-commerce channels saw mid-single-digit growth [2][4]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the running and fitness categories, both achieving high single-digit growth, while the basketball category faced a decline of over 20% due to market conditions [2][3]. - The company continues to optimize its channel structure, with a net decrease of 18 stores year-to-date, and plans to expand new store layouts as per strategy [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: 2025E at RMB 28,698 million, 2026E at RMB 30,498 million, and 2027E at RMB 31,943 million, reflecting growth rates of 0.1%, 6.3%, and 4.7% respectively [5][12]. - The forecasted EPS for 2025 is RMB 0.88, with a decline in net profit expected to RMB 2,269 million, a decrease of 24.7% compared to the previous year [5][12]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 49.2% for 2025, with a slight increase to 49.5% by 2027 [5][13].

在2024年有挑战的市场背景下，李宁公司交出了一份稳健的成绩单。 在稳健务实的发展基调之下，李宁联席CEO钱炜在业绩说明会上强调，"稳健经营不等于保守经营，而 是该攻的攻、该控的控、该调的调。"。 "单品牌"聚焦、"多品类"深化 里斯在《品牌的起源》书中，提到"品类是是隐藏在品牌背后的关键力量，消费者'以品类来思考，以品 牌来表达'"，"品牌与品类是整体策略，如海洋中的冰山，品牌是冰山上的部分，品类是水下的部分， 也决定了冰山的大小"。 从消费场景来看，消费者会产生购买篮球鞋的需求，再去考虑篮球鞋的品牌。当李宁篮球鞋成为国内外 篮球领域的佼佼者，消费者在考虑篮球鞋时，就会想到去李宁门店逛逛，找一双适合自己的篮球鞋。 这样的思考链路，是李宁坚持深耕单品牌、多品类的底层逻辑。 单品牌聚焦，专注发展李宁品牌，李宁品牌旗下拥有跑步、篮球、综训、羽毛球、乒乓球、运动生活六 大核心品类，以品类建立消费者链接，对于李宁品牌来说是务实也最有效率的策略。通过品类，李宁将 产品广泛覆盖到中国运动人群，服务不同的运动需求。 从经营结果来看，2024年，李宁跑步、篮球、综训三大专业运动品类流水占比达到64%；此外，李宁在 2024年 ...