机构：天风证券 研究员：孙海洋 奥运叙事下新轮产品周期启动 李宁重获COC 权益，是在估值中枢较低、基本盘趋稳、行业进入专业运动竞争新阶段进行的一次关键 战略卡位。对标历史周期，COC 合作与龙头运动品牌成长高度同步，公司上一轮奥运周期末3 年CAGR 达36.7%，安踏在两轮奥运周期内实现双位数增长，并催化子品牌安踏冠军，证明奥运营销可沉淀品牌 心智以及渠道效率双重资产。 公司产品近年来已由国潮周期切至以跑步/健身等专业品类为主。自2022年以后，"国潮"红利减弱，公 司进入低速增长和去库存调整周期，2025H1跑步品类流水增速接近20%，占比升至34%，成为第一大品 类。跑鞋持续以科技创新和大单品策略突破，篮球品类依靠明星球员签约、赛事绑定与渠道精细管理， 维持品牌价值；运动休闲叠加米兰时装周+荣耀金标+龙店一体化叙事，在本轮奥运周期下有望重塑品 牌价值，迎结构性增长机遇。 渠道结构优化，赋能生意成长 公司渠道已从规模扩张进入结构优化的新常态。24 年以来公司通过主动压缩直营、加速门店店型升 级、依托经销与电商平衡风险，在终端销售承压的环境下推动店效稳步提升。从终端零售流水看，短期 销售略有承压，2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's retail sales for Q4 2025 showed a slight year-on-year decline, but the rate of decline has narrowed compared to previous quarters. The company is managing inventory and risks effectively in a challenging retail environment, with confidence in revenue and profit margin guidance for 2025 [1][2]. Sales Performance - Overall retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) experienced a low single-digit year-on-year decline, with expectations for better performance in October due to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, but a weakening outlook for November and December due to consumer environment and warm winter [1]. - Offline sales in Q4 2025 saw a mid single-digit year-on-year decline, with direct sales channels declining in low single digits and wholesale channels declining in mid single digits [2]. Channel Analysis - Direct sales outperformed wholesale, largely due to outlet promotions contributing nearly half of the direct sales business, allowing for better optimization of autumn and winter apparel [2]. - Online sales remained flat year-on-year, with expectations of double-digit growth on Douyin, single-digit growth on JD, while Tmall and official website faced downward pressure [2]. Store Expansion and Channel Structure - As of Q4 2025, Li Ning had 6,091 stores (excluding Li Ning YOUNG), with a net closure of 41 stores in the quarter and 26 for the year. The company continues to expand its children's clothing stores, with 1,518 stores and a net increase of 38 in the quarter [2]. - The company is actively opening new store formats, including dragon stores and outdoor stores, with plans to open over ten pop-up stores in the next 1-2 months [2]. Discount and Inventory Management - Overall discounts in Q4 2025 deepened in low single digits year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with offline discounts slightly deeper than 65% due to warm winter temperatures prompting increased clearance of winter apparel [2]. - Despite deeper discounts, the company has managed to maintain a healthy inventory turnover ratio, with the inventory turnover period returning to a healthy range of 4-5 months [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company expects improved profitability due to refined management, although marketing expenditures may increase in 2026 due to the Olympic year, potentially suppressing short-term profits. Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.7 billion, 2.77 billion, and 3.17 billion yuan respectively [3]. - The target price is maintained at 22.76 HKD, with a PE ratio of 19.0x for 2026, reflecting confidence in the company's strategic investments for long-term growth [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Ning [3][9] Core Insights - Li Ning's Q3 2025 revenue showed a marginal decline, with e-commerce and children's apparel performing relatively better. The overall revenue decreased in the mid-single digits year-on-year, while online sales grew in the high single digits, and offline sales declined in the high single digits [9] - The company anticipates maintaining its performance guidance for 2025, aiming for flat revenue and a high single-digit net profit margin despite facing some pressures. Upcoming marketing initiatives related to the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics and technology releases are expected to enhance brand competitiveness [9] Financial Summary - Revenue projections (in billion RMB): - 2023: 27.6 - 2024: 28.7 - 2025E: 28.8 - 2026E: 30.1 - 2027E: 31.2 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023: 7% - 2024: 4% - 2025: 0% - 2026: 4% - 2027: 4% [8] - Net profit projections (in billion RMB): - 2023: 3.19 - 2024: 3.01 - 2025E: 2.48 - 2026E: 2.64 - 2027E: 2.78 - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit: - 2023: -22% - 2024: -5% - 2025: -18% - 2026: 6% - 2027: 5% [8] Operational Insights - The discount rate has deepened slightly due to increased inventory turnover, with expectations to return to a 4-5 month inventory turnover by year-end. The overall inventory turnover ratio is currently at 5-6 months [9] - The number of sales points (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) increased to 6,132, with a net addition of 33 points in the current year. The company plans to close 10-20 direct stores while increasing wholesale points by 50 [9]

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning needs to regain lost time as its recent financial performance shows only a slight revenue increase while profits are declining, especially compared to competitors like Anta and Adidas [1][3] Financial Performance - Li Ning's revenue for the first half of the year reached 14.817 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, but gross margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 50% and operating profit margin fell by 0.2% [1] - In comparison, Anta's revenue was 33.735 billion yuan and Adidas China reported approximately 15.263 billion yuan, indicating Li Ning's significant lag behind its competitors [1] Market Strategy - Li Ning is diversifying its strategy by entering the outdoor market through its family investment in the Swedish outdoor brand Haglöfs, which is expanding its presence in China [3][6] - The outdoor category is showing strong growth in China, with Anta's other brands experiencing retail sales growth of 60%-65% [3][4] Competitive Landscape - Li Ning's core categories of running and basketball are facing challenges, with a 21% decline in basketball revenue for 2024 [3][4] - The outdoor market is becoming increasingly competitive, with various brands like The North Face and Columbia also gaining traction in China [12][14] Brand Positioning - Haglöfs is being positioned as a high-end outdoor brand, similar to how Anta has positioned its brand Arc'teryx, aiming to attract a new generation of consumers seeking high-quality outdoor products [10][12] - Li Ning is not directly managing Haglöfs, which limits the potential for resource sharing and synergy that competitors like Anta enjoy [16] Future Opportunities - Li Ning has the opportunity to enhance its brand image and international presence by becoming a partner for the Chinese Olympic Committee, covering major international events from 2026 to 2028 [16][17] - The company is also focusing on improving operational efficiency and expanding into lower-tier cities to enhance profitability [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HKD 19.2 for 2025, based on a 20x PE ratio [1][4][7]. Core Insights - Li Ning's overall platform revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, with offline channels experiencing low single-digit decline while e-commerce channels saw mid-single-digit growth [2][4]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the running and fitness categories, both achieving high single-digit growth, while the basketball category faced a decline of over 20% due to market conditions [2][3]. - The company continues to optimize its channel structure, with a net decrease of 18 stores year-to-date, and plans to expand new store layouts as per strategy [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: 2025E at RMB 28,698 million, 2026E at RMB 30,498 million, and 2027E at RMB 31,943 million, reflecting growth rates of 0.1%, 6.3%, and 4.7% respectively [5][12]. - The forecasted EPS for 2025 is RMB 0.88, with a decline in net profit expected to RMB 2,269 million, a decrease of 24.7% compared to the previous year [5][12]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 49.2% for 2025, with a slight increase to 49.5% by 2027 [5][13].