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瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250930
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 09:00
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply glut of industrial silicon has not improved yet. Although there is a production reduction expectation in the southwest region, the supply in the northwest region is stable. The downstream demand from organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy industries is generally flat, and the industry inventory remains high. Industrial silicon is expected to have no significant changes overall. It is recommended to buy at low prices and observe the production reduction intensity during the dry season after the holiday [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,640 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the position of the main contract is 206,977 lots, down 34,235 lots; the net position of the top 20 is -51,575 lots, up 9,359 lots; the warehouse receipts of GEX are 50,983 lots, up 781 lots; the closing price of the December contract is -400 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the difference between the November and December contracts is -400 yuan, down 5 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygenated 553 silicon is 9,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 810 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of DMC is 11,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,860 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex-factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon is 6.54 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 70.59%, down 0.53 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.635 million tons, up 99,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons, up 4,154.82 tons [2] Industry News - At the 2025 Brazil São Paulo Solar Exhibition, TrinaTracker, a Chinese photovoltaic enterprise, announced that it will supply a 130MW Blazer 1P intelligent tracking system for the Colinas project in Pernambuco, Brazil, marking a continuous breakthrough of Chinese photovoltaic enterprises in the Latin American market with the strategy of "global production + local service" [2] Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, the spot price of industrial silicon has been fluctuating upward this week. There is a production reduction expectation in the southwest region, while the supply in the northwest region is stable. On the demand side, the downstream industries of industrial silicon, including organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy, have a flat overall demand for industrial silicon. The industry inventory remains high, and the digestion of inventory still faces certain pressure [2] Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]
瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250820
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 09:12
Report Summary - **Report Date**: August 20, 2025 [1] - **Report Type**: Industrial Silicon Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. Today, the price of industrial silicon continued to decline. During the wet season, the power cost is low, there are many production enterprises, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to fall to around 8,000 yuan. It is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long positions if the price later falls below 8,000 yuan [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 235 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 279,868 lots, a decrease of 6,737 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 92,125 lots, an increase of 5,455 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 50,625 lots, a decrease of 85 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon was - 30 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 860 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 324,700 tons, an increase of 19,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 75.05%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - On August 20, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized a photovoltaic industry symposium to standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry. The meeting on August 19 did not discuss the implementation details of "anti - involution" in each link, and the anti - involution rules for battery, component, silicon wafer, and polysilicon links are expected to be discussed in the next two days. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. In the industrial silicon sector, in the supply side, as the wet season deepens in the southwest region, the electricity price advantage becomes more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan is increasing, and the output in the southwest region is expected to increase next week. In Xinjiang, some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, while some small and medium - sized silicon factories have low enthusiasm for resuming production due to thin profits, and the overall output remains relatively stable [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The three major downstream industries' total demand for industrial silicon remains flat. Today, the price of industrial silicon continued to decline. During the wet season, the power cost is low, there are many production enterprises, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to fall to around 8,000 yuan. If the price later falls below 8,000 yuan, it is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long positions [2]