日预计继续下跌空间，但是下跌幅度不会过大，从技术面来看， 若明日继续下跌，预计有望盘中反弹，注 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 意操作节奏。操作上建议,若后期跌破8200元，可以考虑中长线逢低布局多单。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 工业硅产业日报 2025-08-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 8515 | -160 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 281839 | -7286 -111 | | | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -84679 | -7835 广期所仓单(日,手) | 50 ...

Report Summary - **Report Date**: August 20, 2025 [1] - **Report Type**: Industrial Silicon Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. Today, the price of industrial silicon continued to decline. During the wet season, the power cost is low, there are many production enterprises, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to fall to around 8,000 yuan. It is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long positions if the price later falls below 8,000 yuan [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 235 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 279,868 lots, a decrease of 6,737 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 92,125 lots, an increase of 5,455 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 50,625 lots, a decrease of 85 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon was - 30 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 860 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 324,700 tons, an increase of 19,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 75.05%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - On August 20, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized a photovoltaic industry symposium to standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry. The meeting on August 19 did not discuss the implementation details of "anti - involution" in each link, and the anti - involution rules for battery, component, silicon wafer, and polysilicon links are expected to be discussed in the next two days. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. In the industrial silicon sector, in the supply side, as the wet season deepens in the southwest region, the electricity price advantage becomes more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan is increasing, and the output in the southwest region is expected to increase next week. In Xinjiang, some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, while some small and medium - sized silicon factories have low enthusiasm for resuming production due to thin profits, and the overall output remains relatively stable [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The three major downstream industries' total demand for industrial silicon remains flat. Today, the price of industrial silicon continued to decline. During the wet season, the power cost is low, there are many production enterprises, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to fall to around 8,000 yuan. If the price later falls below 8,000 yuan, it is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long positions [2]

多晶硅产业日报 2025-08-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 52280 | -460 多晶硅11-12价差 | -2290 | 155 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 135517 | -3206 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 43675 | -260 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 47000 | 0 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | -5740 | -2310 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 36 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 4.94 | 0 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 34.8 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 主力合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | 8605 | -200 出口数量工业硅(月,吨) | 52919.65 | -12197 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three downstream industries remains flat. The bottom cost support for industrial silicon is evident, but the inventory pressure at the top persists. If the price later drops below 8,000 yuan, it is advisable to consider mid - to long - term bargain - hunting for long positions [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,605 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the main contract position is 276,272 lots, down 2,763 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 85,566 lots, down 812 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,599 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon is - 15 yuan, down 10 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Si main contract basis is 795 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,300 yuan/ton, down 420 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kilogram; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 75.05%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - The notice on the work guidelines for the consultation mechanism for the identification of compliant production capacity of industrial silicon in the autonomous region is repealed. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. In the industrial silicon supply side, the power price advantage in the southwest region is more prominent during the wet season, accelerating the resumption of production in silicon plants. In Xinjiang, large factories maintain stable production, while small and medium - sized factories have low enthusiasm for resuming production [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to show a slowing trend. Short - term investment should be on hold, and a high - short strategy is recommended for the medium - to - long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract is 8,760 yuan/ton, down 525 yuan; the main contract position is 212,932 lots, down 29,745 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 66,694 lots, up 7,394 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 49,846 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon is - 5 yuan, up 40 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 10,150 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the Si main contract basis is 1,040 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan; the DMC spot price is 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly industrial silicon output is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly industrial silicon import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly industrial silicon export volume is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 65.11%, down 6.27 percentage points; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. 3.2 Industry News - Starting from the trading time on August 1, 2025, the trading limits for some contracts of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures will be adjusted. Non - futures company members or customers are limited to a maximum of 500 lots of daily opening positions on the industrial silicon futures SI2509 contract, and 2,000 lots on the SI2510, SI2511, SI2512, and SI2601 contracts [2]. - Trump announced that tariffs will start on August 1, with a 50% tariff on imported copper. In the industrial silicon sector, the supply situation this week is complex. In the northwest Ili region, large - scale production enterprises maintain their current production rhythm. In the southwest region, enterprises in Baoshan are actively resuming production, but the resumption scale in Nujiang and Dehong has not met expectations. Sichuan manufacturers rely on self - owned power plants, and the overall operating rate has not increased significantly [2]. 3.3 Viewpoint Summary - The supply side may see a potential increase in overall output due to the resumption of production in some southwestern regions. On the demand side, in the organic silicon field, the spot price has risen due to a monomer plant fire, supporting industrial silicon; in the polysilicon field, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, and downstream demand has declined significantly; in the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, and demand is difficult to boost [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall production of industrial silicon has a potential increasing trend due to the resumption of production in some southwestern regions, but the total demand from the three major downstream industries continues to slow down. Today, the spot price of industrial silicon dropped significantly, and the futures price declined in the early session but was significantly pulled up by polysilicon. It is expected to remain under pressure in the future, and it is recommended to short on rallies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9,350 yuan/ton, up 435 yuan; the position of the main contract was 276,734 lots, down 2,334 lots; the net position of the top 20 was -74,088 lots, up 5,853 lots; the warehouse receipts of GEX were 49,710 lots, down 66 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon was -45 yuan, up 15 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 10,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 450 yuan/ton, down 585 yuan; the DMC spot price was 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of silicone DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC was 65.11%, down 6.27 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. Industry News - The Sichuan Ferroalloy (Industrial Silicon) Industry Association issued a joint initiative against involution in industrial silicon, advocating selling products at no less than the full - cost price, resisting low - price bidding and vicious competition. The supply situation of industrial silicon this week is complex. In the Ili region of the northwest, large - scale production enterprises maintain the existing production rhythm. In the southwest region, the resumption of production in Baoshan is active, but the resumption scale in Nujiang and Dehong fails to meet expectations. In Sichuan, manufacturers rely on self - owned power plants to ensure supply, and the overall operating rate does not increase significantly [2]. Demand Analysis - In the organic silicon field, the spot price has increased due to a monomer plant fire, and the production profit has risen, while the operating rate has declined, which supports industrial silicon. In the polysilicon field, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, downstream photovoltaic is against involution, demand has declined significantly, and the demand for industrial silicon has decreased. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory continues to increase, prices rise, and it is in a passive destocking stage, so it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall production of industrial silicon has a potential increasing trend due to the resumption of production in some southwestern regions, despite no significant immediate changes in production data. - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) continues to show a slowdown trend. - The industrial silicon futures were at the daily limit down today, while the spot price has not yet loosened. It is expected that the spot price will decline slightly in the short - term. The fundamental situation of industrial silicon is poor currently. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and adopt a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 810 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 279,068 lots, a decrease of 44,246 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 74,088 lots, an increase of 5,853 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 49,710 lots, a decrease of 66 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon was - 45 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The average price of oxygen - blowing 553 silicon was 9,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 10,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 1,035 yuan/ton, an increase of 660 yuan; the DMC spot price was 12,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 产业情况 - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. 下游情况 - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 65.11%, a decrease of 6.27 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. 行业消息 - Trump said that Powell might be ready to cut interest rates and would lower the interest rate. Trump also announced that tariffs would start on August 1st without any extension, and a 50% tariff would be imposed on imported copper. The supply situation of industrial silicon this week was complex. In the northwest Yili region, the fertilizer subsidy policy was stably implemented, and large - scale production enterprises maintained their existing production rhythm. In the southwest region, enterprises in Baoshan were actively resuming production, but the resumption scale in Nujiang and Dehong did not meet expectations. Sichuan manufacturers mainly relied on self - owned power plants to ensure supply, and the overall operating rate did not increase significantly [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to slow. The spot price of industrial silicon continued to rise today. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a high - short strategy in the medium - to long - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9,690 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the main contract position was 336,274 lots, up 1,498 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 68,472 lots, down 18,540 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 50,106 lots, up 53 lots; the spread between August and September industrial silicon was - 20 yuan, up 5 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 10,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 10,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 410 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke was 1,720 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, all unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, up 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 71.38%, up 1.97 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - At the Photovoltaic Industry Supply Chain Development (Datong) Seminar, it was proposed to revise the comprehensive energy consumption standards for polysilicon products to promote the elimination of backward production capacity. In the industrial silicon supply side, the fertilizer subsidy policy in the Ili region of the Northwest remains stable, large enterprises have no news of production cuts or shutdowns, the production cost in the Southwest has decreased, the resumption of production in Baoshan is positive, but that in Nujiang and Dehong is below expectations, and the overall operating rate in Sichuan has not increased significantly [2] 3.7 Demand - side Analysis - In the organic silicon field, the spot price has risen, production profits have declined, costs have increased significantly, and the operating rate has increased, supporting industrial silicon. In the polysilicon field, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is in a state of reduced load operation, downstream demand has declined significantly, and it is expected that production will be difficult to increase, reducing the demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory has increased, prices have declined, and demand for industrial silicon is difficult to boost [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Industrial silicon's three major downstream industries' total demand for industrial silicon continues to show a slowdown trend. The industrial silicon price has been rising, with spot prices driving up futures prices, but trading volume is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see for now as the short - term integer mark will be an important resistance level [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8685 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the position of the main contract is 379848 lots, down 16805 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 70457 lots, down 2674 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50215 lots, down 43 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon is - 10, down 15 [2] 现货市场 - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Si main contract basis is 515 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 产业情况 - Industrial silicon monthly output is 305200 tons, up 5500 tons; industrial silicon social inventory is 552000 tons, up 10000 tons; industrial silicon monthly import volume is 2211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; industrial silicon monthly export volume is 52919.65 tons, down 12197.89 tons [2] 下游情况 - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kilogram, up 0.72 US dollars; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24179.3 tons; the weekly organic silicon DMC operating rate is 69.41%, up 1.17 percentage points; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 201878500 tons, up 164500 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 11700 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] 行业消息 - There are rumors that large industrial silicon manufacturers have cancelled their复产 plans and electricity price subsidies have been cancelled, but they are unconfirmed and need further tracking. Trump said that tariffs will be imposed on imported copper starting from August 1, with a 50% tariff increase. The fertilizer subsidy policy in the Ili region of the Northwest remains stable, and large - scale production enterprises have not reported any production cuts or shutdowns. The production cost in the Southwest has decreased, with enterprises in Baoshan actively resuming production, but the resumption scale in Nujiang and Dehong has not met expectations. Sichuan manufacturers are mainly focused on ensuring supply and relying on self - owned power plants for production, and the overall operating rate has not increased significantly [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily as the short - term integer mark will be an important resistance level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,785 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 396,653 lots (down 6,237 lots), the net position of the top 20 is - 67,783 lots, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,258 lots, and the price difference between industrial silicon in August - September is 5 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,150 yuan/ton, the average price of 421 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton), the Si main contract basis is 365 yuan/ton, and the DMC spot price is 10,800 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, the weekly social inventory is 552,000 tons (up 10,000 tons), the monthly import volume is 71.51 tons, and the monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, the daily average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,100 yuan/ton, the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, the daily market price of overseas photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 7,624.27 tons, the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.41% (up 1.17%), the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.645 million tons (down 337,930 tons), and the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - There is a rumor that Xinjiang will cancel all electricity price subsidies, which will increase the cost of industrial silicon by 300 - 700 yuan/ton. Large manufacturers have temporarily cancelled their restart plans [3]. - The domestic industrial silicon spot market is stable, with the mainstream price of 421 in the domestic market ranging from 8,450 to 9,900 yuan/ton [3].