工业硅产业日报 2025-09-11 意操作节奏，操作上建议,若后期跌破8200元，可以考虑中长线逢低布局多单。 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 8740 | 75 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 287771 | 9706 | | 期货市场 | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -39667 | 33479 广期所仓单(日,手) | 50045 | 90 | | | 9-10月工业硅价差 | -170 | -330 | | | | 现货市场 | 通氧553#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9200 | 100 421#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9500 | 100 | | | Si主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 460 | 25 DMC现货价(日,元/吨) | 11 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries remains flat. The organic silicon market is weak, with a significant decline in profits and a drop in the operating rate, having a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon. The polysilicon industry is expected to see a significant increase in production in August, increasing the demand for industrial silicon. However, the limited price increase in downstream sectors and the expected long - term contraction in photovoltaic industry demand may restrict the continuous growth of polysilicon's demand for industrial silicon. The overall inventory of aluminum alloy continues to rise significantly, but the price has increased, and the demand for industrial silicon remains stable. The decline of industrial silicon today is less than that of polysilicon, and there is a possibility of a supplementary decline later. If the price later falls below 8,200 yuan, it is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long - position layout at low prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,525 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract is 275,558 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,281 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 79,670 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 5,009 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 50,822 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 116 lots; the price difference between industrial silicon in September and October is - 30 yuan, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,550 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the basis of the Si main contract is 775 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the spot price of DMC is 11,100 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,810 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, all with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 333,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, with no week - on - week change; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, with no week - on - week change; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,908.89 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 861.29 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 72.71%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.34 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.536 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 133,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From January to July, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 5.8633 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%, among which the power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.4703 trillion kWh. In terms of electricity consumption by industry, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 84.7 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.8%; the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 3.7403 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%; the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 1.1251 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 913.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and take promoting a reasonable recovery of prices as an important consideration for monetary policy [2]. 3.7 Supply - side Situation - In the southwest region, as the wet season deepens, the electricity price advantage becomes more obvious, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places is increasing, and it is expected that the output of industrial silicon in the southwest region will increase week - on - week. Some previously shut - down silicon plants in Sichuan have recently restarted production, and the production capacity is gradually being released. In Xinjiang, some large - scale plants maintain a stable production rhythm, but small and medium - sized silicon plants are still not very enthusiastic about resuming production due to cost and market price factors, and the overall output remains stable. However, if the market price fluctuates significantly in the future, large - scale plants may also adjust their production plans [2]. 3.8 Demand - side Situation - The downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the organic silicon, polysilicon and aluminum alloy fields. The organic silicon market is weak, with a significant decline in profits and a drop in the operating rate, having a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon. The polysilicon industry is expected to see a significant increase in production in August, increasing the demand for industrial silicon. Polysilicon enterprises have raised prices strongly due to the "anti - involution" policy, and the enthusiasm for starting work has increased. However, the limited price increase in downstream sectors and the expected long - term contraction in photovoltaic industry demand may restrict the continuous growth of polysilicon's demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy field, the overall inventory continues to rise significantly, but the price has increased, and the overall demand for industrial silicon remains stable. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market continued its downward trend today, and it is expected to have limited further decline tomorrow. If it continues to fall, there may be an intraday rebound. It is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long positions if the price falls below 8,200 yuan [2]. - The overall demand from the three major downstream industries for industrial silicon remains flat. The supply in the southwest region is expected to increase, while the production in Xinjiang remains stable [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,515 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan. The position of the main contract was 281,839 lots, down 7,286 lots. The net position of the top 20 was - 84,679 lots, down 7,835 lots. The warehouse receipts of GZEE were 50,938 lots [2]. - The price difference between September and October industrial silicon was - 35 yuan, down 15 yuan [2]. b. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, both unchanged [2]. - The basis of the Si main contract was 835 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan. The DMC spot price was 11,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, and the average price of petroleum coke was 1,810 yuan/ton, both unchanged [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, all unchanged [2]. d. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 333,200 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons. The weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons, and the monthly export volume was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons. The overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 dollars/kg [2]. - The average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,400 yuan/ton, and the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 dollars/kg, both unchanged [2]. - The monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 24,908.89 tons, a decrease of 861.29 tons. The weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 72.71%, a decrease of 2.34 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.536 million tons, a decrease of 133,000 tons, and the monthly export volume was 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. f. Industry News - The China Fluorine and Silicon Organic Silicon Materials Industry Association in Lanzhou held an "anti - involution" meeting today [2]. - On the industrial silicon supply side, in the southwest region, as the wet season deepens, the electricity price advantage becomes more obvious, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan is increasing, and the output in the southwest region is expected to increase next week. In Xinjiang, large - scale plants maintain stable production, while small and medium - sized plants have low enthusiasm for resuming production [2].

Report Summary - **Report Date**: August 20, 2025 [1] - **Report Type**: Industrial Silicon Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. Today, the price of industrial silicon continued to decline. During the wet season, the power cost is low, there are many production enterprises, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to fall to around 8,000 yuan. It is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long positions if the price later falls below 8,000 yuan [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 235 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 279,868 lots, a decrease of 6,737 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 92,125 lots, an increase of 5,455 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 50,625 lots, a decrease of 85 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon was - 30 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 860 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 324,700 tons, an increase of 19,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 75.05%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - On August 20, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized a photovoltaic industry symposium to standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry. The meeting on August 19 did not discuss the implementation details of "anti - involution" in each link, and the anti - involution rules for battery, component, silicon wafer, and polysilicon links are expected to be discussed in the next two days. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. In the industrial silicon sector, in the supply side, as the wet season deepens in the southwest region, the electricity price advantage becomes more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan is increasing, and the output in the southwest region is expected to increase next week. In Xinjiang, some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, while some small and medium - sized silicon factories have low enthusiasm for resuming production due to thin profits, and the overall output remains relatively stable [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The three major downstream industries' total demand for industrial silicon remains flat. Today, the price of industrial silicon continued to decline. During the wet season, the power cost is low, there are many production enterprises, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to fall to around 8,000 yuan. If the price later falls below 8,000 yuan, it is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long positions [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of polysilicon is expected to increase due to the potential复产 of some bases of three leading domestic enterprises and the release of new production capacity in the second half of the year. If the resumption of production speeds up or new capacity is released ahead of schedule next week, the market supply of polysilicon will increase [2]. - The short - term demand for polysilicon is weak. In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was only 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 85%. Although the global photovoltaic installation in 2025 is expected to be about 580GW and the domestic demand is about 130000 tons, the short - term weak demand restricts the price increase of polysilicon [2]. - The downstream photovoltaic enterprise's start - up rate is difficult to improve. With the increase in supply and the weakening of demand, the polysilicon market is expected to continue to adjust next week. The price is supported by cost and policy, but the upside space is limited by downstream acceptance, and it is likely to show a volatile trend [2]. - The demand for industrial silicon is steadily declining, but the supply is also decreasing, and the overall situation remains volatile [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 52280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 460 yuan compared with the previous period; the main contract position is 135517 lots, a decrease of 3206 lots [2]. - The 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2290 yuan, an increase of 155 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 43675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 47000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the basis of polysilicon is - 5740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2310 yuan [2]. - The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 36 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 34.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52919.65 tons, a decrease of 12197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons [2]. - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305200 tons, an increase of 5500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1113 tons, an increase of 320 tons [2]. - The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.3 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 67386000 kilowatts, a decrease of 3183000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W [2]. - The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 889758600 units, a decrease of 144241200 units; the monthly import volume is 110959000 units, a decrease of 10025900 units; the monthly average import price is 0.31 US dollars/unit, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars [2]. - The comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 27.86, unchanged [2]. Industry News - The relevant unit has decided to abolish the "Notice on Printing and Distributing the Work Guidelines for the Consultation Mechanism for the Identification of Compliant Production Capacity of Industrial Silicon in the Autonomous Region" after the expiration of the publicity period without receiving any objections [2]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and take promoting a reasonable rise in prices as an important consideration for monetary policy [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three downstream industries remains flat. The bottom cost support for industrial silicon is evident, but the inventory pressure at the top persists. If the price later drops below 8,000 yuan, it is advisable to consider mid - to long - term bargain - hunting for long positions [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,605 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the main contract position is 276,272 lots, down 2,763 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 85,566 lots, down 812 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,599 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon is - 15 yuan, down 10 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Si main contract basis is 795 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,300 yuan/ton, down 420 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kilogram; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 75.05%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - The notice on the work guidelines for the consultation mechanism for the identification of compliant production capacity of industrial silicon in the autonomous region is repealed. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. In the industrial silicon supply side, the power price advantage in the southwest region is more prominent during the wet season, accelerating the resumption of production in silicon plants. In Xinjiang, large factories maintain stable production, while small and medium - sized factories have low enthusiasm for resuming production [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to show a slowing trend. Short - term investment should be on hold, and a high - short strategy is recommended for the medium - to - long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract is 8,760 yuan/ton, down 525 yuan; the main contract position is 212,932 lots, down 29,745 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 66,694 lots, up 7,394 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 49,846 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon is - 5 yuan, up 40 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 10,150 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the Si main contract basis is 1,040 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan; the DMC spot price is 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly industrial silicon output is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly industrial silicon import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly industrial silicon export volume is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 65.11%, down 6.27 percentage points; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. 3.2 Industry News - Starting from the trading time on August 1, 2025, the trading limits for some contracts of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures will be adjusted. Non - futures company members or customers are limited to a maximum of 500 lots of daily opening positions on the industrial silicon futures SI2509 contract, and 2,000 lots on the SI2510, SI2511, SI2512, and SI2601 contracts [2]. - Trump announced that tariffs will start on August 1, with a 50% tariff on imported copper. In the industrial silicon sector, the supply situation this week is complex. In the northwest Ili region, large - scale production enterprises maintain their current production rhythm. In the southwest region, enterprises in Baoshan are actively resuming production, but the resumption scale in Nujiang and Dehong has not met expectations. Sichuan manufacturers rely on self - owned power plants, and the overall operating rate has not increased significantly [2]. 3.3 Viewpoint Summary - The supply side may see a potential increase in overall output due to the resumption of production in some southwestern regions. On the demand side, in the organic silicon field, the spot price has risen due to a monomer plant fire, supporting industrial silicon; in the polysilicon field, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, and downstream demand has declined significantly; in the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, and demand is difficult to boost [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall production of industrial silicon has a potential increasing trend due to the resumption of production in some southwestern regions, but the total demand from the three major downstream industries continues to slow down. Today, the spot price of industrial silicon dropped significantly, and the futures price declined in the early session but was significantly pulled up by polysilicon. It is expected to remain under pressure in the future, and it is recommended to short on rallies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9,350 yuan/ton, up 435 yuan; the position of the main contract was 276,734 lots, down 2,334 lots; the net position of the top 20 was -74,088 lots, up 5,853 lots; the warehouse receipts of GEX were 49,710 lots, down 66 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon was -45 yuan, up 15 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 10,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 450 yuan/ton, down 585 yuan; the DMC spot price was 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of silicone DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC was 65.11%, down 6.27 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. Industry News - The Sichuan Ferroalloy (Industrial Silicon) Industry Association issued a joint initiative against involution in industrial silicon, advocating selling products at no less than the full - cost price, resisting low - price bidding and vicious competition. The supply situation of industrial silicon this week is complex. In the Ili region of the northwest, large - scale production enterprises maintain the existing production rhythm. In the southwest region, the resumption of production in Baoshan is active, but the resumption scale in Nujiang and Dehong fails to meet expectations. In Sichuan, manufacturers rely on self - owned power plants to ensure supply, and the overall operating rate does not increase significantly [2]. Demand Analysis - In the organic silicon field, the spot price has increased due to a monomer plant fire, and the production profit has risen, while the operating rate has declined, which supports industrial silicon. In the polysilicon field, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, downstream photovoltaic is against involution, demand has declined significantly, and the demand for industrial silicon has decreased. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory continues to increase, prices rise, and it is in a passive destocking stage, so it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall production of industrial silicon has a potential increasing trend due to the resumption of production in some southwestern regions, despite no significant immediate changes in production data. - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) continues to show a slowdown trend. - The industrial silicon futures were at the daily limit down today, while the spot price has not yet loosened. It is expected that the spot price will decline slightly in the short - term. The fundamental situation of industrial silicon is poor currently. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and adopt a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 810 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 279,068 lots, a decrease of 44,246 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 74,088 lots, an increase of 5,853 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 49,710 lots, a decrease of 66 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon was - 45 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The average price of oxygen - blowing 553 silicon was 9,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 10,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 1,035 yuan/ton, an increase of 660 yuan; the DMC spot price was 12,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 产业情况 - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. 下游情况 - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 65.11%, a decrease of 6.27 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. 行业消息 - Trump said that Powell might be ready to cut interest rates and would lower the interest rate. Trump also announced that tariffs would start on August 1st without any extension, and a 50% tariff would be imposed on imported copper. The supply situation of industrial silicon this week was complex. In the northwest Yili region, the fertilizer subsidy policy was stably implemented, and large - scale production enterprises maintained their existing production rhythm. In the southwest region, enterprises in Baoshan were actively resuming production, but the resumption scale in Nujiang and Dehong did not meet expectations. Sichuan manufacturers mainly relied on self - owned power plants to ensure supply, and the overall operating rate did not increase significantly [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to slow. The spot price of industrial silicon continued to rise today. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a high - short strategy in the medium - to long - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9,690 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the main contract position was 336,274 lots, up 1,498 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 68,472 lots, down 18,540 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 50,106 lots, up 53 lots; the spread between August and September industrial silicon was - 20 yuan, up 5 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 10,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 10,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 410 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke was 1,720 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, all unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, up 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 71.38%, up 1.97 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - At the Photovoltaic Industry Supply Chain Development (Datong) Seminar, it was proposed to revise the comprehensive energy consumption standards for polysilicon products to promote the elimination of backward production capacity. In the industrial silicon supply side, the fertilizer subsidy policy in the Ili region of the Northwest remains stable, large enterprises have no news of production cuts or shutdowns, the production cost in the Southwest has decreased, the resumption of production in Baoshan is positive, but that in Nujiang and Dehong is below expectations, and the overall operating rate in Sichuan has not increased significantly [2] 3.7 Demand - side Analysis - In the organic silicon field, the spot price has risen, production profits have declined, costs have increased significantly, and the operating rate has increased, supporting industrial silicon. In the polysilicon field, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is in a state of reduced load operation, downstream demand has declined significantly, and it is expected that production will be difficult to increase, reducing the demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory has increased, prices have declined, and demand for industrial silicon is difficult to boost [2]