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瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250820
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 09:12
Report Summary - **Report Date**: August 20, 2025 [1] - **Report Type**: Industrial Silicon Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. Today, the price of industrial silicon continued to decline. During the wet season, the power cost is low, there are many production enterprises, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to fall to around 8,000 yuan. It is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long positions if the price later falls below 8,000 yuan [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 235 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 279,868 lots, a decrease of 6,737 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 92,125 lots, an increase of 5,455 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 50,625 lots, a decrease of 85 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon was - 30 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 860 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 324,700 tons, an increase of 19,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 75.05%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - On August 20, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized a photovoltaic industry symposium to standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry. The meeting on August 19 did not discuss the implementation details of "anti - involution" in each link, and the anti - involution rules for battery, component, silicon wafer, and polysilicon links are expected to be discussed in the next two days. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. In the industrial silicon sector, in the supply side, as the wet season deepens in the southwest region, the electricity price advantage becomes more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan is increasing, and the output in the southwest region is expected to increase next week. In Xinjiang, some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, while some small and medium - sized silicon factories have low enthusiasm for resuming production due to thin profits, and the overall output remains relatively stable [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The three major downstream industries' total demand for industrial silicon remains flat. Today, the price of industrial silicon continued to decline. During the wet season, the power cost is low, there are many production enterprises, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to fall to around 8,000 yuan. If the price later falls below 8,000 yuan, it is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long positions [2]