震荡之后的加速下行 铁铁铁铁铁 2025/11/21 作者：李文涛 从业资格证号：F3050524 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 联系方式：18616861246 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 研究助理：尹艺瑾 从业资格证号：F03125275 联系方式：13752670838 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 观点小结 | 锰硅 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周盘面震荡后加速下行。硅锰周度产量小幅下降，需求小幅回升。工厂现货报价较少，6517北方市场价格 5500-5550元/吨，南方市场价格5500-5550元/吨。河北某大型钢厂招标定价5820元/吨。成本端，锰矿市场行 | | 核心观点 | 中性 | 情暂稳运行，港口询盘表现一般，存部分低价询盘，主流锰矿未出现明显累库，市场暂未有低价出货涌现，但 | | | | 整体成交情况不佳，个别品种成交重心略有下移。市场关注后续焦炭现货价格博弈，合金利润情况较差。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 截至11月20日，锰硅1-5月差-66元/吨，持续低位震荡。 | | 现货 | 中性 | 工厂现货报价 ...

铁合金早报 供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：75%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/ ...

供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：75%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/ ...

供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：75%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/ ...

4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：内蒙古（日） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：青海 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：宁夏 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/0 ...

Report Date - The report is dated November 13, 2025 [1] Price Information Silicon Ferroalloy - Spot prices for different regions and grades vary, e.g., Ningxia 72 is 5150 with a daily change of -30 and weekly change of 0; Inner Mongolia 72 is 5200 with a daily change of -50 and weekly change of -20 [2] - Different contract prices on the futures market also show various changes, e.g., the main contract price is 5490 with a daily change of 2 and weekly change of -70 [2] - Export prices in Tianjin for 72 are 1045 and for 75 are 1100, both with no daily or weekly changes [2] Silicon Manganese Ferroalloy - Spot prices for different regions and grades also have differences, e.g., Inner Mongolia 6517 is 5600 with a daily change of -20 and weekly change of -20; Ningxia 6517 is 5560 with no daily or weekly changes [2] - Futures contract prices and their changes are presented, e.g., the main contract price is 5762 with a daily change of -2 and weekly change of -14 [2] Historical Price Trends - Multiple historical price trend charts are provided for silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese ferroalloy, including market prices in different regions, export and import prices, and price differences between different contracts and regions from 2021 - 2025 [3][4][6] Supply - Related Information Silicon Ferroalloy - Production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China, including monthly and weekly production, and capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are shown [4] - Export - related data such as export prices in Tianjin and export quantity in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [4] Silicon Manganese Ferroalloy - Production data like weekly production in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided [6] - Procurement data of Hebei Iron and Steel Group, including procurement prices and quantities of 6517 from 2021 - 2025 are given [6] Demand - Related Information Silicon Ferroalloy - Demand - related data such as the estimated production of crude steel in China, the production of metal magnesium, and the demand for silicon ferroalloy in China from 2021 - 2025 are shown [4] Silicon Manganese Ferroalloy - Demand - related data including the demand for silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [4][7] Inventory - Related Information Silicon Ferroalloy - Inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, including inventory in different regions, and inventory - related data such as warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days in different regions from 2021 - 2025 are provided [5] Silicon Manganese Ferroalloy - Inventory - related data such as warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days in China from 2021 - 2025 are shown [7] Cost and Profit - Related Information Silicon Ferroalloy - Cost - related data such as electricity prices in different regions, prices of raw materials like blue charcoal and silica, and production costs and profits in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 are presented [5] Silicon Manganese Ferroalloy - Profit - related data in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and the northern and southern regions from 2021 - 2025 are provided [7]

Report Information - Date: November 10, 2025 [1] - Type: Ferroalloy Morning Report Core Content Summary Price - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: - Spot prices of silicon ferroalloy in various regions have declined to different degrees. For example, the price of 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block in Ningxia is 5150 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 30 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 5220 yuan/ton, also with a weekly decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. - The export price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Tianjin is 1045 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the export price of 75 silicon ferroalloy is 1100 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 5 US dollars/ton [2]. - The prices of silicon ferroalloy futures contracts have also declined. For example, the main contract price of silicon ferroalloy is 5526 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 60 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 26 yuan/ton [2]. - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: - The ex - factory prices of silicon manganese alloy in various regions have decreased. For example, the ex - factory price of 6517 silicon manganese alloy in Inner Mongolia is 5620 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 40 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, it is 5560 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of the main contract of silicon manganese alloy is 5760 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 38 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 12 yuan/ton [2]. Supply - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: - The production capacity utilization rates of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi and other regions have shown different trends in different periods from 2021 to 2025 [4]. - The weekly output of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China (with a production capacity accounting for 95%) has also fluctuated in different years [4]. - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: - The weekly output of silicon manganese alloy in China has shown certain changes from 2021 to 2025 [6]. - The operating rates of silicon manganese alloy enterprises in China have also fluctuated [6]. Demand - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: - The demand for silicon ferroalloy is related to the production of products such as crude steel, stainless steel, and metal magnesium. For example, the production of crude steel in China has shown different trends in different months from 2021 to 2025, which will affect the demand for silicon ferroalloy [4]. - The procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group have also changed in different months from 2021 to 2025 [4]. - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: - The demand for silicon manganese alloy in China (according to the Steel Union's caliber) has shown an upward trend from 2021 to 2025, and the export volume has also changed [7]. Inventory - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: - The inventories of 60 sample enterprises of silicon ferroalloy in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and other regions have fluctuated in different weeks from 2021 to 2025 [5]. - The total number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of silicon ferroalloy on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (CZCE) has also changed [5]. - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: - The total number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventories of silicon manganese alloy on the CZCE have shown different trends from 2021 to 2025 [7]. - The inventories of 63 sample enterprises of silicon manganese alloy in China have also changed in different weeks [7]. Cost and Profit - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: - The production costs of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia have fluctuated from 2021 to 2025, which is related to factors such as electricity prices and raw material prices [5]. - The profits of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia, including the profit of converting to the main contract on the futures market and the spot profit, have also changed [5]. - The export profit of 75 silicon ferroalloy has also shown different trends [5]. - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: - The profits of silicon manganese alloy in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region (according to the Steel Union's caliber) have fluctuated from 2021 to 2025 [7]. - The profit of converting Guangxi silicon manganese alloy to the main contract on the futures market has also changed [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the overall industry investment rating 2. Core Views Manganese Silicon - The overall view is neutral. This week, the market oscillated and consolidated. The weekly output of ferromanganese silicon decreased slightly, and demand declined marginally. The fluctuations in both the futures and spot markets were small recently. With high production costs, it's difficult for steel mills to purchase at low prices. The price in the northern market is 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, and 5580 - 5620 yuan/ton in the southern market. A large steel mill in Hebei tendered at 5820 yuan/ton. The manganese ore market is firm, and the alloy profit is poor [3]. Ferrosilicon - The overall view is neutral. This week, the market oscillated upwards. The ferrosilicon market was stable, mainly fulfilling orders. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas is 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade ferrosilicon is reported at 5700 yuan/ton. Hebei Steel priced it at 5660 yuan/ton. Production increased slightly, steel mill demand declined marginally, and metal magnesium production increased slightly. The current profitability in the main production areas is poor, and overall costs have risen [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Manganese Silicon Manganese Ore Inventory - The total port inventory of manganese ore is 431.4 tons, with a slight de - stocking compared to the previous period. Tianjin Port's inventory increased slightly to 383.9 tons, still significantly lower than the same period last year. Qinzhou Port's inventory decreased slightly to 47 tons, at a historically low level in recent years [15]. - In Tianjin Port, the inventory of South African ore is 263.9 tons with a slight de - stocking, Gabonese ore is 29 tons with a marginal de - stocking and far lower than last year, and Australian ore is 44.6 tons with a slight de - stocking, slightly higher than last year [19]. Manganese Ore Port Price - The price of Gabonese lumps in Tianjin Port is 40 yuan/ton - degree, Australian lumps are 38.8 yuan/ton - degree, and South African semi - carbonate is 34.2 yuan/ton - degree. The supply - demand game in the manganese ore market has intensified, quotes remain firm, and transactions are adjusted within a narrow range [22]. Manganese Silicon Production - As of November 7, the weekly output of ferromanganese silicon decreased to 20.19 tons. The daily average output in Inner Mongolia decreased to 13850 tons/day, remained stable at 6785 tons/day in Ningxia, decreased significantly to 1410 tons/day in Yunnan, decreased slightly to 2300 tons/day in Guizhou, and decreased slightly to 1535 tons/day in Guangxi [32]. Manganese Silicon Demand - As of November 7, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises is 12.11 tons. The weekly production of the five major steel products decreased to 856.74 tons. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in Mysteel sample data decreased slightly, slightly lower than the historical average [41]. Manganese Silicon Price - The price in the Inner Mongolia market is around 5620 yuan/ton, and 5680 yuan/ton in Tianjin. Hebei Steel's tender price is 5820 yuan/ton [54]. Chemical Coke Price - As of November 6, the chemical coke price remained stable. The ex - factory prices of 25 - 40mm coke in Yinchuan, Ordos, and Alxa are 1240, 1160, and 1190 yuan/ton respectively. The third round of coke price increase has been implemented, and the market is watching for the fourth round [57]. Manganese Silicon Production Profit - The immediate profit of ferromanganese silicon is low, and the north - south differentiation has intensified [61]. Manganese Silicon Month - to - Month Spread - As of November 6, the 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of ferromanganese silicon is - 50 yuan/ton, oscillating at a low level [66]. Manganese Silicon Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The market oscillated and consolidated, and the basis did not change significantly. As of November 6, the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of ferromanganese silicon is 8.03 tons. Attention should be paid to the subsequent recovery [70]. Ferrosilicon Ferrosilicon Weekly Production - As of November 7, the weekly supply increased slightly to 11.41 tons. The daily average output in Inner Mongolia is 5260 tons, 2315 tons in Qinghai, 4250 tons in Ningxia, and 2630 tons in Shaanxi [78][79]. Ferrosilicon Demand - Steel Mills - The demand for ferrosilicon from steel mills decreased slightly. The total consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills is 1.98 tons, lower than the same period last year [83]. Ferrosilicon Demand - Metal Magnesium - As of November 6, the export price of metal magnesium at Tianjin Port is 2345 US dollars/ton, and the market price is 16250 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase. The weekly production of metal magnesium is 18410 tons, continuing to increase slightly. Due to rising coal prices, the cost of magnesium plants has increased. Most factories in Fugu have suspended quotes, waiting and watching the market. Factories have a strong willingness to raise prices, and the supply - demand game is obvious. The short - term market is expected to remain strong and stable [91]. Ferrosilicon Export - As of November 7, the overseas FOB price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon is 1100 US dollars/ton, and 1045 US dollars/ton for 72 - grade ferrosilicon, showing a slight decline. In September, the import volume of ferrosilicon increased slightly month - on - month, and the export volume increased significantly, higher than the same period last year [96]. Ferrosilicon Raw Materials - As of November 7, the quotes of small - sized blue charcoal in the mainstream regions increased slightly month - on - month. The current prices are 820 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 810 yuan/ton in Ningxia, and 800 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price of oxidized iron scale is 750 yuan/ton [107]. Ferrosilicon Production Profit - As of November 7, the point - to - point profit of ferrosilicon is in the red. The loss is relatively large in Shaanxi, and the loss in Qinghai has increased significantly. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai are - 336, - 509, - 543, and - 547 yuan/ton respectively [119]. Ferrosilicon Month - to - Month Spread - As of November 6, the 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of ferrosilicon is - 64 yuan/ton, strengthening slightly compared to the previous period [122]. Ferrosilicon Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The market oscillated upwards, and the basis of ferrosilicon weakened slightly. As of November 6, the basis is - 366 yuan/ton. As of November 6, the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of ferrosilicon is 4.72 tons. Attention should be paid to the recovery of warehouse receipts [126]. Balance Sheet Manganese Silicon - The total supply from June 2025 to May 2026 ranges from 83.6 to 98.8 tons, with production being the main component and imports remaining stable at 0.2 tons. The total demand ranges from 82.4 to 93.9 tons, mainly for steel consumption. There are periods of surplus and deficit, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption show different trends [128]. Ferrosilicon - The total supply from June 2025 to May 2026 ranges from 45.0 to 51.0 tons, with production and imports contributing. The total demand ranges from 45.9 to 52.1 tons, including domestic consumption and exports. The consumption is mainly for crude steel and metal magnesium. There are also periods of surplus and deficit, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption vary [129].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on November 7, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block was 5150 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 70 yuan; the main contract price was 5586 yuan, with a daily increase of 26 yuan and a weekly increase of 36 yuan [2]. - For silicon manganese alloy, on the same day, the ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese alloy was 5620 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 60 yuan; the main contract price was 5798 yuan, with a daily increase of 22 yuan and a weekly decrease of 44 yuan [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in China over the years from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly production, weekly production (with a capacity ratio of 95%), and monthly capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - The weekly production data of silicon manganese alloy in China from 2021 - 2025 are also provided [6]. Demand - The report shows the demand data of silicon manganese alloy in China (in ten thousand tons, according to the Steel Union's caliber) from 2021 - 2025, as well as the monthly production forecast data of crude steel in China [4][7]. - It also includes the monthly procurement volume and price data of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the monthly procurement volume and price data of 6517 silicon manganese alloy by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4][6]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, the weekly inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are presented, along with daily data on warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [5]. - For silicon manganese alloy, the daily data on warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided, as well as the weekly inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China [7]. Cost - Profit - The cost - profit data of silicon ferroalloy include electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, the market price of small - sized blue charcoal in Shaanxi, the production profit of blue charcoal in China, and the production cost and profit of silicon ferroalloy in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia [5]. - The cost - profit data of silicon manganese alloy include the profit data in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region (according to the Steel Union's caliber), and the profit data of silicon manganese alloy in Ningxia and Guangxi converted to the main contract [7].

Report Title - Iron Alloy Morning Report [1] Report Date - November 4, 2025 [2] Price Information Silicon Ferrosilicon - Spot prices vary by region and grade, e.g., Ningxia 72 is 5150 yuan, with a daily change of -30 yuan and a weekly change of -20 yuan; Tianjin 72 export price is 1055 US dollars, with no daily or weekly change [2] - Futures prices also show different trends for different contracts, such as the main contract at 5526 yuan, up 26 yuan daily and down 38 yuan weekly [2] - Basis, spreads between different contracts, and the spread between silicon ferrosilicon and silicon manganese are provided [2] Silicon Manganese - Spot prices vary by region, e.g., Inner Mongolia 6517 is 5650 yuan, down 10 yuan daily and 30 yuan weekly; the main futures contract is 5794 yuan, up 22 yuan daily and down 8 yuan weekly [2] - Similar to silicon ferrosilicon, basis, spreads between different contracts are presented [2] Historical Price Trends - Multiple charts show the historical price trends of silicon ferrosilicon and silicon manganese in different regions, including market prices, export and import prices, and basis, from 2021 to 2025 [3][4][6] Supply - Related Information Silicon Ferrosilicon - Production data includes monthly and weekly production volumes of 136 sample enterprises in China, and capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4] - Export prices at Tianjin Port for different grades are shown over the years [4] Silicon Manganese - Production data includes weekly production volumes in China and purchasing volumes and prices from HeSteel Group [6] - The opening rate of silicon manganese enterprises in China is also provided [6] Demand - Related Information - Demand - related data includes estimated and actual production volumes of crude steel in China, production volumes of stainless - steel crude steel, production and price data of metal magnesium, and the opening rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in China [4] - The demand volume of silicon manganese in China is presented [4][7] Inventory - Related Information Silicon Ferrosilicon - Inventory data includes weekly inventories of 60 sample enterprises in China and different regions, as well as daily warehouse receipt quantities, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [5] - Average available inventory days in different regions of China are provided [5] Silicon Manganese - Inventory data includes daily warehouse receipt quantities, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, as well as weekly inventories of 63 sample enterprises in China [7] - Average available inventory days in China are presented [7] Cost and Profit - Related Information Silicon Ferrosilicon - Cost - related data includes electricity prices in different regions, market prices of raw materials such as blue charcoal and silica dioxide [5] - Profit data includes production costs, profits from converting to the main futures contract, and spot profits in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia [5] Silicon Manganese - Cost - related data includes prices of raw materials such as chemical coke and manganese ore [6] - Profit data includes profits in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and different regions in China, as well as profits from converting to the main futures contract [7]