证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 国产机器人放量在即，看好柴发边际变化 工 信部召开光伏产业座谈会，规范光伏产业竞争秩序 我们认为，此次会议站位高远、立场鲜明，会中明确提出"遏制 低价无序竞争"，有望引导行业良性健康发展。当前，硅料、硅 片、玻璃等核心环节的价格有所上涨，叠加行业供给侧边际改 善，多重积极因素共振下，光伏板块有望迎来修复行情。 甘 肃、山西、黑龙江三省出台"136 号文"细则，内蒙古 全 面入市完成首次结算，新能源电价改革持续推进 [Table_Title2] 电力设备与新能源行业周观察 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要 1.人形机器人 小鹏人形机器人研发突破并为 26 年量产做准备 随着国内外企业布局加速&AI 技术突破，人形机器有望迎来量产 落地时点。在降本需求的驱动下，人形机器人核心零部件的国 产替代需求强烈，市场空间广阔，率先取得突破的国内企业有 望深度受益。重点看好国产机器人/机器狗有望加速放量带动的 产业链需求。 2.新能源汽车 太蓝新能源全固态电池产能落地湖北 我们认为，电池技术的升级迭代始终 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the successful fundraising efforts of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings, which has secured nearly 200 million yuan in a C2 round of financing, following a previous C1 round of nearly 500 million yuan, marking it as one of the few bright spots in the photovoltaic industry over the past two years [1][3] - The company is focusing on the perovskite technology, which is considered the next generation of photovoltaic technology, and aims to achieve mass production and profitability by leveraging its technological advantages [1][3][10] Company Development - GCL-Poly Energy has been through three cycles of the photovoltaic industry and has faced significant challenges, primarily related to funding rather than technology [3][11] - The company plans to run its mass production line by 2025, achieve a shipment of 100 megawatts (with revenue exceeding 100 million yuan) by 2026, and reach breakeven for a 500 megawatt line by 2027 [3][18] - The company has transitioned from organic photovoltaic technology to perovskite technology, which was considered too advanced at the time, leading to challenges in equipment customization and high sunk costs [7][10] Market Position and Strategy - GCL-Poly Energy has established a strong domestic supply chain for its equipment, allowing for rapid iterations in research and development, which is among the fastest globally [9][10] - The company has achieved an 18% conversion efficiency for its 2 square meter components, which has garnered significant attention in the industry and coincided with a wave of investment in the perovskite sector [15][16] - The company aims to create a "universal platform technology" that covers various applications, including centralized power stations and building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) [19] Challenges and Future Outlook - The company faces two main challenges: ensuring product yield and stability during large-scale production, and overcoming the pricing competition from silicon products, which are currently cheaper [21] - GCL-Poly Energy's team has expanded to approximately 230 members, focusing on strengthening research, manufacturing, and market sales capabilities [21] - The company is determined to maintain product superiority and avoid technology licensing, aiming to create a competitive barrier through higher efficiency than its peers [21][22]

Group 1 - The stock price of Hangzhou Kelin closed at 38.96 yuan on August 6, 2025, down 1.32% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on that day was 30,044 hands, with a transaction amount of 118 million yuan [1] - Hangzhou Kelin's main business includes the research and production of digital intelligent sensing products for power grids, energy storage systems, and perovskite photovoltaic components [1] Group 2 - On August 4, the company received multiple institutional research visits, revealing that its business layout primarily focuses on new power systems, involving smart grid transformation and renewable energy development [1] - On August 6, data showed a net outflow of 22.09 million yuan in main funds for Hangzhou Kelin, with a cumulative net outflow of 35.39 million yuan over the past five days [1]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the world's first perovskite photovoltaic demonstration park in Wuxi showcases the potential of perovskite technology in transforming industrial buildings from energy consumers to energy producers [1][2]. Group 1: Perovskite Photovoltaic Technology - The first GW-level perovskite photovoltaic module production line was launched in Wuxi, capable of producing approximately 1.8 million perovskite modules annually [2]. - The demonstration park features over 3,000 perovskite modules, with a total installed capacity of 256 kW, generating an annual electricity output of 168,000 kWh and reducing CO2 emissions by 108 tons [2][3]. - Perovskite components are integrated into building facades, allowing for energy generation while maintaining aesthetic appeal, with the potential to cover nearly 20% of the energy consumption of the office building [3][4]. Group 2: Economic and Environmental Benefits - The use of perovskite photovoltaic components as building materials can reduce costs and enhance the integration of renewable energy into architectural designs [4][5]. - The Wuxi Music Hall's perovskite roof, covering 7,566 square meters, has an installed capacity of 1,240 kW, generating 1.2 million kWh annually, with a projected revenue exceeding 24 million yuan over 25 years [4]. - BIPV products not only contribute to energy generation but also serve as emergency power sources during grid outages, aligning with the dual carbon goals [5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The perovskite technology is gaining traction as a viable alternative to traditional silicon-based solar cells, with potential efficiency improvements and integration with existing technologies [6][7]. - Major photovoltaic companies are beginning to invest in perovskite technology, with projections indicating a combined production capacity of 4 GW by 2025 and 108 GW by 2030 [7]. - The consensus among industry stakeholders is that perovskite technology is poised for commercial explosion, driven by advancements in efficiency and stability [7].

Core Insights - The establishment of the world's first perovskite photovoltaic industrial park by Jidian Energy in Wuxi marks a significant advancement in green energy technology [1][2] - The industrial park integrates perovskite photovoltaic technology with diverse building scenarios, creating a comprehensive energy system that emphasizes green power generation and efficient energy use [1] - Jidian Energy has achieved multiple technological breakthroughs, including a power output of over 490 watts for its 2.81 square meter perovskite modules, showcasing superior efficiency compared to traditional silicon modules [2] Group 1 - The Jidian Energy perovskite photovoltaic industrial park features a closed-loop energy system encompassing power generation, storage, and consumption [1] - The park includes a "green power wall" with a total installed capacity of 256 kilowatts, which serves both as a safety barrier and a power generation source [1] - The research center's office building utilizes perovskite components to cover its monthly electricity consumption of approximately 178,000 kilowatt-hours [1] Group 2 - Jidian Energy, recognized as a national-level "specialized and innovative" small giant enterprise, has made significant advancements in perovskite technology since its establishment in 2020 [2] - The company has broken the world record for perovskite module efficiency nine times and has a production energy consumption that is only one-fourth of that of silicon modules [2] - Jidian Energy's products have received multiple certifications, ensuring environmental sustainability throughout their lifecycle from production to recycling [2]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the world's first perovskite photovoltaic demonstration park in Wuxi showcases the potential of perovskite technology in transforming industrial buildings from energy consumers to energy producers, highlighting a path of cost reduction and efficiency improvement in the photovoltaic sector [1][2]. Group 1: Perovskite Photovoltaic Park - The perovskite photovoltaic industrial park consists of over 3,000 perovskite photovoltaic modules forming a "green power wall" with a total installed capacity of 256 kW, generating an annual electricity output of 168,000 kWh and reducing CO2 emissions by 108 tons per year [2][3]. - The park features a GW-level production line capable of producing approximately 1.8 million perovskite photovoltaic modules annually, integrating these products into various architectural applications [2][4]. Group 2: Economic and Environmental Benefits - The perovskite components used in the office building can cover nearly 20% of the building's total electricity consumption, with a monthly electricity generation of about 32,000 kWh [3][4]. - The solar carport constructed with perovskite modules has a total installed capacity of 112.86 kW, generating an annual output of 127,000 kWh and reducing CO2 emissions by 81.9 tons [3][4]. Group 3: Market Potential and Technological Advancements - Perovskite technology is gaining traction as it can achieve a theoretical efficiency limit of 33% for single-junction cells, and when combined with other technologies, it can reach even higher efficiencies [5][6]. - The industry is witnessing a shift as major photovoltaic companies begin to invest in perovskite technology, with projected production capacity reaching 4 GW by 2025 and potentially 108 GW by 2030 [7][8].

Core Insights - The article discusses the development of a solar energy project in Gansu, China, which utilizes a 260-meter high tower surrounded by over 12,000 heliostats to generate continuous electricity through a molten salt tower solar thermal power plant [1] - The project aims to leverage abundant solar energy for large-scale hydrogen production, with a focus on achieving industrial-scale hydrogen production through advanced electrolysis technology [1][2] - The establishment of the Hydrogen Energy and Low Carbon Center at Lanzhou University is a strategic move to explore various energy utilization pathways and build a hydrogen energy development community in the western region of China [1][2] Group 1 - The solar thermal power plant can generate electricity 24/7, enabling efficient and large-scale hydrogen production through water electrolysis [1] - Lanzhou University has developed an alkaline water electrolysis system capable of producing 1,000 cubic meters of hydrogen per hour, with an electrolysis efficiency exceeding 80% [1] - The "liquid sunlight" technology, which converts hydrogen and carbon dioxide into methanol, is highlighted as a viable solution for industrial carbon reduction and efficient hydrogen storage and transportation [2] Group 2 - The successful implementation of the world's first large-scale methanol synthesis demonstration project in Gansu and the upcoming 100,000-ton "liquid sunlight" fuel synthesis project in Inner Mongolia mark significant advancements in this technology [2] - Lanzhou University is positioned to leverage its interdisciplinary strengths in chemistry, physics, and energy to innovate in photovoltaic power generation, hydrogen production materials, and new energy storage technologies [2][3] - Future efforts will focus on flexible power generation, safe hydrogen-electric integration, and low-carbon energy utilization, with plans to establish a comprehensive research and testing platform for solar energy technologies [3]

Investment Rating - The mechanical industry is rated as "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the marginal decline in domestic demand for engineering machinery, while also emphasizing the advancements in humanoid robotics and related technologies [3][4][5] - The report suggests that 2025 will be a breakthrough year for humanoid robots, with mass production expected to drive the downstream supply chain [5] - The agricultural machinery market shows signs of improvement, with tractor exports increasing significantly [8] - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing short-term pressure on domestic sales, but export volumes are maintaining a growth trend [12] Summary by Relevant Sections Humanoid Robots - A joint research team has developed the world's first humanoid robot with high-resolution tactile perception and complete motion capabilities [3] - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk confirmed the integration of AI voice assistant Grok into the Optimus V3 humanoid robot [3] - Significant investments in humanoid robotics are being made, with companies like Galaxy General completing a financing round of 1.1 billion RMB [3][4] Machine Tools & Cutters - Japan's machine tool orders in May 2025 amounted to 128.716 billion JPY, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [6] - The report suggests that the machine tools and cutters sector is influenced by economic expectations, with potential improvements expected as policies are implemented [6] Agricultural Machinery - The agricultural machinery market sentiment index was reported at 43.5% in May 2025, indicating a slight year-on-year improvement [7] - Tractor exports from China increased by 12.3% in quantity and 31.1% in value during the first five months of 2025 [8] Engineering Machinery - In May 2025, excavator sales (including exports) reached 18,202 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [12] - Domestic sales of excavators decreased by 1.5%, while export sales increased by 5.4% [12] - The report anticipates a recovery in demand for engineering machinery as infrastructure investment is expected to remain high [12] Forklifts - Forklift sales in May 2025 reached 123,472 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.8% [13] - The average working hours for forklifts increased by 22.5% month-on-month, indicating improved demand [13] Rail Transit Equipment - The report notes significant increases in the procurement of high-speed train maintenance projects by the National Railway Group [14] - The rail transit equipment sector is expected to benefit from increased railway investment and passenger flow recovery [14] Semiconductor Equipment - The report discusses the acceleration of domestic substitution for key semiconductor equipment due to increased tariffs [15][16] - The establishment of the third phase of the big fund, with a registered capital of 344 billion RMB, is expected to significantly boost the domestic semiconductor industry [16] New Energy Equipment - As of May 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of power generation in China reached 3.61 billion kW, a year-on-year increase of 18.8% [17] - The report highlights the rapid growth of photovoltaic power generation capacity, with a 57% year-on-year increase in new installations [17] Low-altitude Economy and EVTOL - Policies supporting the development of the low-altitude economy and EVTOL (Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing) aircraft have been introduced in various regions [18][19] - The report emphasizes the potential for the low-altitude economy to drive new industries and consumer spending [19]

Core Viewpoint - Perovskite solar cells are gaining attention as a promising next-generation photovoltaic technology, with China leading in conversion efficiency but facing increasing competition from Western countries [1][3]. Industry Overview - China's perovskite technology has repeatedly set world records for conversion efficiency, indicating its global leadership [3]. - However, the path to industrialization is challenging, with early movers in Europe, the US, and Japan intensifying competition [3][4]. - The European Union has invested over €100 million since 2013 to support perovskite research, highlighting the competitive landscape [4]. Competitive Landscape - Major players like Oxford PV in Europe hold significant patents in perovskite-silicon tandem technology, posing a potential threat to China's market position [3]. - In the US, First Solar is advancing in perovskite technology, having acquired a European company and initiated large-scale production lines [4]. - Japan's major companies, including Asahi Kasei and Panasonic, are also investing heavily in perovskite technology, with significant funding announced for 2024 [4]. Domestic Development - The Chinese government is providing substantial support for perovskite technology development, focusing on both research and industrialization [6]. - Current perovskite products are still in the early stages of industrialization, requiring extensive testing in various applications and climates to ensure maturity [6][12]. - The cost-effectiveness of perovskite technology is currently lower than that of silicon, but improvements are expected as technology matures [6]. Production Capabilities - China is largely self-sufficient in equipment and raw materials for perovskite production, though some core equipment and materials still lag behind international standards [9]. - The first GW-scale production line for perovskite modules has been launched, achieving over 17% efficiency and demonstrating significant power generation gains compared to silicon modules [10]. Future Outlook - The industry anticipates a multi-technology landscape in the photovoltaic sector, with both domestic and international leaders coexisting [11]. - Continuous technological iteration is essential to avoid stagnation and maintain competitiveness in the global market [11]. - The commercial application of perovskite technology is expected to accelerate, with several large-scale projects anticipated in the near future [13]. Challenges and Solutions - Key challenges include ensuring long-term stability and efficiency while reducing costs [12][14]. - Collaborative efforts with testing institutions and major energy companies are underway to validate the performance and reliability of perovskite products [14].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Viewpoints - The humanoid robot industry is accelerating its commercialization, with tactile sensor technology being a key factor for safe interaction and intelligent control. Companies with technological and cost advantages are expected to benefit significantly as humanoid robots enter mass production [1][14][17] - The solid-state battery industry is progressing towards industrialization, driven by advancements in battery technology and the expansion of the supply chain. Solid-state batteries are seen as the next-generation battery technology due to their high energy density and safety [2][18][20] - The UK government has announced the indicative timeline for the seventh round of Contracts for Difference (CfD) auctions, with offshore wind auctions expected to start in August. This round is anticipated to create the highest auction capacity in history, supporting the growth of renewable energy, particularly offshore wind [3][26][27] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - Tactile sensing technology is crucial for ensuring safe interactions between humanoid robots and their environments. The market is currently dominated by foreign companies, but domestic firms are making progress in technology development and market expansion [1][13] - Major companies are entering the humanoid robot space, with significant advancements expected in the T-chain, particularly from Tesla's Optimus robots, which are projected to see mass production by the end of 2025 [14][17] - Domestic suppliers are also making strides, with companies like Huawei and various local manufacturers actively developing humanoid robot products [14][17] New Energy Vehicles - The solid-state battery industry is experiencing rapid industrialization, with significant milestones achieved in production capacity and technology maturity. The demand for solid-state batteries is expected to grow as new products are launched and performance is validated [2][18][20] - The new energy vehicle sector is in a growth phase, with continuous introduction of high-quality models and improvements in performance and cost, enhancing overall value [19][20] - The lithium battery industry is expected to benefit from the recovery of consumer electronics and the expansion of energy storage, with a focus on new technologies such as solid-state batteries and silicon-based anodes [20][22][23] Renewable Energy - The UK government is set to accelerate the development of offshore wind energy, with the seventh round of CfD auctions expected to yield significant project capacity. This aligns with the UK's goal of achieving a nearly fully clean power system by 2030 [3][26][27] - The solar energy sector is anticipated to see growth driven by inventory and capacity adjustments, with a focus on new technologies like perovskite solar cells and advancements in silicon production [28][30][31] - The wind energy sector is also poised for growth, with stable pricing and increasing demand for both onshore and offshore wind projects, particularly as domestic manufacturers expand their international presence [40][49][50]