Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The steel market is in a downward cycle, and the focus of the steel and ore futures market in Q4 is expected to be on domestic and international macro and policy changes. The price is likely to show a trend of first declining and then rising [4]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Review - Steel prices generally follow a 7 - year cycle. From 2008 - 2015, it was a downward trend, 2016 - 2021 an upward trend, and 2021 - 2025 a downward trend. In H1 2025, steel prices continued to fall, hitting a new low in June. In July, driven by anti - involution, prices rose strongly with a maximum increase of 16%, but fell unilaterally in August, and entered a range - bound state in September [7]. - Stainless steel had an upward trend from 2019 - 2022 and a downward trend since 2022. Iron ore generally follows a similar 7 - year cycle as steel, but with differences. Since 2021, it has been in a downward trend, with a sharp drop in 2021 and wide - range fluctuations between 555 - 955 from 2022 onwards. Overall, the iron ore trend is stronger than that of steel products [11]. Part 2: Current Analysis Supply - demand Logic - **Macro - economic and Policy Impact**: Economic growth is highly consistent with steel prices. China's GDP growth rate in Q1 was 5.4%, and the annual economic target is 5%. The economic growth rate in Q3 was significantly weaker than that in H1. Without obvious stimulus policies, it is difficult for steel prices to have a strong unilateral upward trend [14][17]. - **Industry Structure Change**: The proportion of construction steel in total steel consumption decreased from 31% in 2021 to 16% in 2024, while the proportion of steel used in infrastructure and machinery increased, with infrastructure becoming the largest consumer of steel [20]. - **Real Estate Market**: Since 2021, real estate investment indicators have turned negative, and steel prices have been in a downward cycle. From January to August 2025, the year - on - year decline in housing sales was 4.7%, the real estate development investment growth rate was - 12.9%, and the performance of new construction, completion, and construction areas was weak. The land transaction area has been low this year, indicating weak developer enthusiasm for land acquisition [23][27]. - **Government Bond Issuance**: In 2025, the issuance of local government bonds from January to August reached 7.68 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%. The replacement rhythm was significantly advanced, and the issuance of new bonds was relatively slow [30]. - **Manufacturing Industry**: The PMI in August was 49.4%, still in the contraction range. Global trade protectionism has affected the external demand of the steel - related manufacturing industry. It is expected that the steel demand in this industry will decline slightly in Q4 [33]. - **Steel Exports**: In Q3, the export growth rate first increased and then decreased. Although the price advantage of Chinese steel exports still exists, global trade protectionism will gradually suppress exports. The export growth rate in Q4 2025 may decline year - on - year [36]. - **Crude Steel Production**: From January to August 2025, China's crude steel production was 671.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. It is expected that the crude steel production in Q4 will continue to decline, with an estimated output of about 200 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 1.5% [39][40]. - **Iron Ore Imports**: From January to August 2025, China imported 801.62 million tons of iron ore, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. It is expected that the import volume in Q4 will increase compared with Q3, but the annual import volume is still expected to decline slightly year - on - year [59]. - **Iron Ore Production**: In Q3 2025, the production of iron ore concentrate in China showed a recovery trend. It is expected that the production will continue to increase in Q4 due to the release of new production capacity and policy support [60]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: In Q3 2025, the iron ore inventory was relatively stable, and there was a certain accumulation in September. It is expected that the port inventory will show a slight accumulation trend in Q4, and the steel mill inventory will first increase and then decrease [63].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 钢矿周报（8.4-8.8） CONTENTS 目 录 基本面分析 1 The first chapter of the small title 综述及观点总结 2 The third chapter of the small title 2 1、原料市场状况分析 一周数据变化 | 项目 | 上期数据 | 本期数据 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PB粉价格（元/湿吨） | 768 | 770 | 2 | | 巴混粉价格（元/湿吨） | 790 | 809 | 19 | | PB粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | -1.69 | -11.36 | -9.67 | | 巴混粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | -4.18 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 钢矿周报（7.7-7.11） CONTENTS 目 录 基本面分析 1 The first chapter of the small title 2 1、原料市场状况分析 一周数据变化 综述及观点总结 2 The third chapter of the small title | 项目 | 上期数据 | 本期数据 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PB粉价格（元/湿吨） | 723 | 748 | 25 | | 巴混粉价格（元/湿吨） | 757 | 782 | 25 | | PB粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | -6.78 | -5.59 | 1.19 | | 巴混粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | 12.42 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The allocation value of stock indices continues to increase, with a clear upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to buy IF and IM far - month contracts on dips [1]. - The intention to protect liquidity in the bond market is clear, and the expectation of the bond market has slightly improved, but it is difficult to form a trend - based market [1]. - For precious metals, the short - term gold price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise. It is advisable to buy on dips or hold short out - of - the - money put options. Silver has a high probability of upward valuation repair [4]. - For base metals, copper, aluminum, and nickel prices are expected to be range - bound, while alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile [4]. - For energy and chemical products, crude oil prices have limited upside potential and will maintain high volatility; methanol and polyolefin prices are expected to decline [10]. - For building materials, the prices of soda ash and glass are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions [8]. - For steel and coal, the prices of steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to be volatile, with a weakening trend [5][8]. - For agricultural products, cotton prices are expected to be range - bound, and rubber prices are expected to be weakly volatile [10]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Indices - Last week, the A - share market was strong, with communication and non - ferrous metals leading the gains, and home appliances and automobiles leading the losses. The trading volume on Friday decreased slightly to 1.18 trillion yuan. - In June, the A - share market started well, with technology stocks driving market sentiment and slightly boosting trading volume. - Overseas macro uncertainties have reduced global economic growth expectations, but Chinese assets have attracted the attention of foreign institutions. - The upward trend of stock indices is clear, but short - term breakthroughs require an increase in trading volume. It is recommended to buy IF and IM far - month contracts on dips [1]. Bonds - The central bank's intention to protect the market is clear, and the early announcement of repurchase operations has boosted market confidence. - Last Friday, bond futures closed higher. After the China - US call, China - US economic and trade consultations will be held in London. - The macro situation is uncertain, and the bond market is difficult to form a trend - based market. Short - term market conditions are mainly affected by liquidity [1]. Precious Metals - Gold: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise. It is advisable to buy on dips or hold short out - of - the money put options. - Silver: The gold - silver ratio is high, and the valuation of silver is low. If the gold price remains strong, the probability of upward valuation repair of silver increases. It is advisable to hold short out - of - the money put options [4]. Base Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a range. Macro uncertainties remain high, and the supply of copper ore is still tight. - The demand is affected by macro uncertainties and the domestic consumption off - season. - LME inventories are decreasing, while COMEX and SHFE inventories are increasing. Copper prices are expected to remain range - bound [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: The supply is uncertain, but the short - term impact is weakening. The resumption of production is expected to increase supply pressure, and prices may continue to run close to the cost line. - Aluminum: The supply is constrained, with support at the bottom, but the demand policy is uncertain, and the directional driving force is limited [4]. Nickel - The supply of nickel ore is gradually recovering, and the supply of refined nickel is in excess. The demand from the stainless steel and new energy sectors is weak. - The price of nickel is expected to remain range - bound, and it is advisable to hold short call options [4]. Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, and geopolitical disturbances continue. The number of US oil rigs has decreased significantly. - The demand for gasoline and diesel in the US is lower than expected. Oil prices have limited upside potential and will maintain high volatility [10]. Methanol - Overseas methanol plant operating rates have increased, and the price of thermal coal is stable. - Affected by positive factors such as the recovery of olefin plant demand and China - US talks, methanol futures prices have rebounded, but further upside is limited [10]. Polyolefins - The production of polyolefins has increased slightly, and more production capacity is expected to resume this week. - Downstream industries are entering the off - season, and the operating rate is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long the L - PP spread [10]. Building Materials Soda Ash - The production of soda ash is expected to increase in June, while demand is weak. The supply is relatively loose, and inventory is high. - It is recommended to hold short positions in the SA509 contract and go short on rebounds near the cash cost line [2][8]. Glass - The glass market has entered the off - season, with weak demand and high inventory. - It is recommended to hold short positions in the FG509 contract and consider long - short spread strategies [8]. Steel and Coal Steel Products - The spot prices of steel products are weak, and demand has entered the off - season. - The results of the China - US trade negotiations will affect market sentiment. It is recommended to hold short call options for rebar and short positions for hot - rolled coils [5][8]. Iron Ore - The static supply - demand structure of imported iron ore is healthy, but the supply is expected to increase seasonally, and demand may decline. - It is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination or short the I2601 contract with a stop - loss [5][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - The supply of coking coal is in excess, and the price rebound is not sustainable. - The demand for coke is weak, and the price is under pressure [8]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The weather in the Xinjiang cotton - producing area is normal, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. - It is advisable to hold positions patiently and wait for a breakthrough in the price range [10]. Rubber - The supply of rubber is increasing, while demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [10].