1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, steel and ore prices moved sideways with a narrowing fluctuation range. The fundamentals of steel and ore are weak, the steel mill restocking cycle is nearing its end, and port inventories are continuously accumulating. The downstream demand for rebar has entered a vacuum period, with construction sites mostly shut down, resulting in a decline in apparent demand and an increase in social inventories. In contrast, the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils is in the pre-festival peak season but is also approaching its end. From the mid-week price performance, steel and ore significantly underperformed compared to other varieties. On Friday, precious metal prices tumbled, creating a bearish atmosphere in the overall commodity market, which is expected to intensify the price pressure on steel and ore. The report maintains a view of weak oscillations [69][70]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - **One-week data changes**: PB powder price decreased from 802 yuan/ton to 790 yuan/ton, a drop of 12 yuan/ton; Barings powder price decreased from 827 yuan/ton to 815 yuan/ton, a drop of 12 yuan/ton; PB powder spot landing profit decreased from 18.82 yuan/ton to 17.41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.41 yuan/ton; Barings powder spot landing profit decreased from 12.12 yuan/ton to 8.74 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.38 yuan/ton; Australia's shipping volume to China increased from 1326.2 tons to 1434.4 tons, an increase of 108.2 tons; Brazil's shipping volume decreased from 553.7 tons to 544.8 tons, a decrease of 8.9 tons; Imported iron ore port inventory increased from 17496.53 tons to 17758.26 tons, an increase of 261.73 tons; Imported iron ore arrival volume decreased from 2897.7 tons to 2625.5 tons, a decrease of 272.2 tons; Imported iron ore port clearance volume increased from 320.52 tons to 347.71 tons, an increase of 27.19 tons; Iron ore port daily trading volume increased from 79.2 tons to 90.7 tons, an increase of 11.5 tons; Daily average molten iron output decreased from 228.1 tons to 227.98 tons, a decrease of 0.12 tons; Steel enterprise profitability rate decreased from 40.69% to 39.39%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points [6]. 3.2 Market Current Situation Analysis - **One-week data changes**: Shanghai rebar price decreased from 3270 yuan/ton to 3250 yuan/ton, a drop of 20 yuan/ton; Shanghai hot-rolled coil price decreased from 3290 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, a drop of 20 yuan/ton; Blast furnace operating rate increased from 78.68% to 79%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points; Electric furnace operating rate decreased from 72.68% to 70.66%, a decrease of 2.02 percentage points; Rebar blast furnace profit decreased from 61 yuan/ton to 51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Hot-rolled coil blast furnace profit decreased from 1 yuan/ton to -13 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton; Rebar electric furnace profit decreased from -70 yuan/ton to -87 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton; Rebar weekly output increased from 199.55 tons to 199.83 tons, an increase of 0.28 tons; Hot-rolled coil weekly output increased from 305.41 tons to 309.21 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons [38]. - **One-week data changes**: Rebar weekly social inventory increased from 303.12 tons to 326.4 tons, an increase of 23.28 tons; Rebar weekly enterprise inventory increased from 148.98 tons to 149.13 tons, an increase of 0.15 tons; Hot-rolled coil weekly social inventory decreased from 281.14 tons to 278.33 tons, a decrease of 2.81 tons; Hot-rolled coil weekly enterprise inventory increased from 76.64 tons to 77.25 tons, an increase of 0.61 tons; Rebar weekly apparent consumption decreased from 185.52 tons to 176.4 tons, a decrease of 9.12 tons; Hot-rolled coil weekly apparent consumption increased from 309.96 tons to 311.41 tons, an increase of 1.45 tons; Building materials trading volume decreased from 77924 tons to 56046 tons, a decrease of 21878 tons [40]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Data Analysis - **Blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates**: Blast furnace operating rate increased, while electric furnace operating rate decreased [38]. - **Steel production**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil production both increased [38]. - **Steel profits**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil blast furnace and electric furnace profits all decreased [38]. - **Steel inventories**: Rebar social inventory increased, while hot-rolled coil social inventory decreased; both rebar and hot-rolled coil enterprise inventories increased [40]. - **Steel consumption**: Rebar apparent consumption decreased, while hot-rolled coil apparent consumption increased [40]. - **Building materials trading volume**: Decreased [40]. - **Steel exports**: Not detailed in the data, only presented in a chart [63]. - **Real estate data**: Real estate development enterprise residential investment completion cumulative year-on-year and commercial housing sales area cumulative year-on-year data are presented in a chart, along with data on new construction, construction, and completion area cumulative year-on-year [64][65]. - **Manufacturing PMI**: Presented in a chart [67][68].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The steel market is in a downward cycle, and the focus of the steel and ore futures market in Q4 is expected to be on domestic and international macro and policy changes. The price is likely to show a trend of first declining and then rising [4]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Review - Steel prices generally follow a 7 - year cycle. From 2008 - 2015, it was a downward trend, 2016 - 2021 an upward trend, and 2021 - 2025 a downward trend. In H1 2025, steel prices continued to fall, hitting a new low in June. In July, driven by anti - involution, prices rose strongly with a maximum increase of 16%, but fell unilaterally in August, and entered a range - bound state in September [7]. - Stainless steel had an upward trend from 2019 - 2022 and a downward trend since 2022. Iron ore generally follows a similar 7 - year cycle as steel, but with differences. Since 2021, it has been in a downward trend, with a sharp drop in 2021 and wide - range fluctuations between 555 - 955 from 2022 onwards. Overall, the iron ore trend is stronger than that of steel products [11]. Part 2: Current Analysis Supply - demand Logic - **Macro - economic and Policy Impact**: Economic growth is highly consistent with steel prices. China's GDP growth rate in Q1 was 5.4%, and the annual economic target is 5%. The economic growth rate in Q3 was significantly weaker than that in H1. Without obvious stimulus policies, it is difficult for steel prices to have a strong unilateral upward trend [14][17]. - **Industry Structure Change**: The proportion of construction steel in total steel consumption decreased from 31% in 2021 to 16% in 2024, while the proportion of steel used in infrastructure and machinery increased, with infrastructure becoming the largest consumer of steel [20]. - **Real Estate Market**: Since 2021, real estate investment indicators have turned negative, and steel prices have been in a downward cycle. From January to August 2025, the year - on - year decline in housing sales was 4.7%, the real estate development investment growth rate was - 12.9%, and the performance of new construction, completion, and construction areas was weak. The land transaction area has been low this year, indicating weak developer enthusiasm for land acquisition [23][27]. - **Government Bond Issuance**: In 2025, the issuance of local government bonds from January to August reached 7.68 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%. The replacement rhythm was significantly advanced, and the issuance of new bonds was relatively slow [30]. - **Manufacturing Industry**: The PMI in August was 49.4%, still in the contraction range. Global trade protectionism has affected the external demand of the steel - related manufacturing industry. It is expected that the steel demand in this industry will decline slightly in Q4 [33]. - **Steel Exports**: In Q3, the export growth rate first increased and then decreased. Although the price advantage of Chinese steel exports still exists, global trade protectionism will gradually suppress exports. The export growth rate in Q4 2025 may decline year - on - year [36]. - **Crude Steel Production**: From January to August 2025, China's crude steel production was 671.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. It is expected that the crude steel production in Q4 will continue to decline, with an estimated output of about 200 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 1.5% [39][40]. - **Iron Ore Imports**: From January to August 2025, China imported 801.62 million tons of iron ore, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. It is expected that the import volume in Q4 will increase compared with Q3, but the annual import volume is still expected to decline slightly year - on - year [59]. - **Iron Ore Production**: In Q3 2025, the production of iron ore concentrate in China showed a recovery trend. It is expected that the production will continue to increase in Q4 due to the release of new production capacity and policy support [60]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: In Q3 2025, the iron ore inventory was relatively stable, and there was a certain accumulation in September. It is expected that the port inventory will show a slight accumulation trend in Q4, and the steel mill inventory will first increase and then decrease [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, steel and ore prices fluctuated at high levels with an unclear trend. The previous hype about capacity reduction has subsided, but it will support the market until the specific plan from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is released. The market also hyped the theme of military parade production restrictions during the week, which supported the price to some extent [67]. - Fundamentally, iron ore shows a situation of both supply and demand strengthening. Although the shipping volumes from Australia and Brazil decreased week - on - week, the overall arrival volume of iron ore increased, and the port inventory increased slightly. The port clearance volume also increased, and the molten iron output remained at a high level [67]. - Steel enterprises' profits declined, but the operating rate remained high. The overall inventory increased, and the weekly change in apparent demand was large with limited upward space [67]. - In the future, policies are still the key to the market. Before the policies are clear, it is expected that there will be no trending market, and it is advisable to maintain a high - level oscillation mindset [67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis 3.1.1 One - Week Data Changes - PB powder price increased from 768 yuan/wet ton to 770 yuan/wet ton, a rise of 2 yuan/wet ton; Ba Hun powder price increased from 790 yuan/wet ton to 809 yuan/wet ton, a rise of 19 yuan/wet ton [6]. - PB powder spot landing profit decreased from - 1.69 yuan/wet ton to - 11.36 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 9.67 yuan/wet ton; Ba Hun powder spot landing profit increased from - 4.18 yuan/wet ton to 6.31 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 10.49 yuan/wet ton [6]. - The shipping volume from Australia to China decreased from 1489.4 tons to 1488.4 tons, a decrease of 1 ton; the shipping volume from Brazil to China decreased from 884.3 tons to 742.7 tons, a decrease of 141.6 tons [6]. - The port inventory of imported iron ore increased from 14222.01 tons to 14267.27 tons, an increase of 45.26 tons; the arrival volume of imported iron ore increased from 2319.7 tons to 2622.4 tons, an increase of 302.7 tons [6]. - The port clearance volume of imported iron ore increased from 317.91 tons to 336.45 tons, an increase of 18.54 tons; the port trading volume of iron ore increased from 60.7 tons to 69.7 tons, an increase of 9 tons [6]. - The daily average molten iron output decreased from 240.71 tons to 240.32 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons; the profitability rate of steel enterprises increased from 65.37% to 68.4%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points [6]. 3.2 Market Status Analysis 3.2.1 One - Week Data Changes (Steel Products) - The Shanghai rebar price decreased from 3360 yuan/ton to 3340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the Shanghai hot - rolled coil price decreased from 3410 yuan/ton to 3450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [32]. - The blast furnace operating rate increased from 83.46% to 83.75%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points; the electric furnace operating rate increased from 74.21% to 74.9%, an increase of 0.69 percentage points [32]. - The rebar blast furnace profit decreased from 200 yuan/ton to 158 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton; the hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit decreased from 195 yuan/ton to 158 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan/ton [32]. - The rebar electric furnace profit decreased from - 7 yuan/ton to - 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton [32]. - The weekly rebar output increased from 211.06 tons to 221.18 tons, an increase of 10.12 tons; the weekly hot - rolled coil output decreased from 322.79 tons to 314.89 tons, a decrease of 7.9 tons [32]. 3.2.2 One - Week Data Changes (Inventory and Consumption) - The weekly social inventory of rebar increased from 384.14 tons to 388.48 tons, an increase of 4.34 tons; the weekly social inventory of hot - rolled coil increased from 268.65 tons to 278.75 tons, an increase of 10.1 tons [34]. - The weekly enterprise inventory of rebar increased from 162.15 tons to 168.2 tons, an increase of 6.05 tons; the weekly enterprise inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased from 79.3 tons to 77.88 tons, a decrease of 1.42 tons [34]. - The weekly apparent consumption of rebar increased from 203.41 tons to 210.79 tons, an increase of 7.38 tons; the weekly apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil decreased from 320 tons to 306.21 tons, a decrease of 13.79 tons [34]. - The building materials trading volume increased from 86678 tons to 93642 tons, an increase of 6964 tons [34]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - The report also presents various historical data trends of steel products, including the price trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil, the operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces, the actual output of rebar and hot - rolled coil, steel profits, social and enterprise inventories, trading volumes, apparent consumption, export volumes, and relevant real - estate and manufacturing PMI data, but no specific summary of changes is provided in the text [35][37][41]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, steel and ore prices rose significantly due to macro news. There were market rumors during the week that the shantytown renovation would be restarted, causing the entire black - series to rise. Coupled with the previous "capacity - reduction expectation", the market was bullish. The current dominant factor is sentiment. Although traditional seasonality and actual demand do not support price increases, considering the basis, steel enterprise profitability, and the balance of long and short forces, the overall market rebound trend is not over. Given that sentiment is the dominant factor and policies are unclear, short - term and intraday trading is recommended, waiting for clear information [71]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Raw Material Market Condition Analysis a. One - week Data Changes - PB powder price increased from 723 yuan/wet ton to 748 yuan/wet ton, a rise of 25 yuan/wet ton; Bar - mixed powder price increased from 757 yuan/wet ton to 782 yuan/wet ton, a rise of 25 yuan/wet ton. - PB powder spot landing profit increased from - 6.78 yuan/wet ton to - 5.59 yuan/wet ton, a rise of 1.19 yuan/wet ton; Bar - mixed powder spot landing profit decreased from 12.42 yuan/wet ton to 7.74 yuan/wet ton, a drop of 4.68 yuan/wet ton. - Australia's shipping volume to China decreased from 1697.3 tons to 1415.1 tons, a drop of 282.2 tons; Brazil's shipping volume to China decreased from 878.1 tons to 653.8 tons, a drop of 224.3 tons. - Imported iron ore port inventory decreased from 14485.9 tons to 14346.89 tons, a drop of 139.01 tons; Imported iron ore arrival volume increased from 2413.5 tons to 2535.5 tons, a rise of 122 tons. - Imported iron ore port clearance volume increased from 334.19 tons to 337.8 tons, a rise of 3.61 tons; Iron ore port trading volume decreased from 93.4 tons to 79.3 tons, a drop of 14.1 tons. - Daily average molten iron output decreased from 240.85 tons to 239.81 tons, a drop of 1.04 tons; Steel enterprise profitability rate increased from 59.31% to 59.74%, a rise of 0.43 percentage points [6]. b. Other Aspects - The report also analyzed iron ore port spot prices [7], iron ore futures - spot basis [11], iron ore import profit [14], iron ore shipping volume [16], iron ore port inventory and steel mill inventory [20], iron ore arrival and clearance volume [25], steel enterprise production situation [28], and iron ore port daily average trading volume and steel mill daily average molten iron [30]. 2. Market Status Analysis a. One - week Data Changes - Shanghai rebar price increased from 3170 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan/ton; Shanghai hot - rolled coil price increased from 3250 yuan/ton to 3300 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan/ton. - Blast furnace operating rate decreased from 83.46% to 83.15%, a drop of 0.31 percentage points; Electric furnace operating rate decreased from 66.87% to 63.59%, a drop of 3.28 percentage points. - Rebar blast furnace profit increased from 187 yuan/ton to 196 yuan/ton, a rise of 9 yuan/ton; Hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit increased from 126 yuan/ton to 142 yuan/ton, a rise of 16 yuan/ton. - Rebar electric furnace profit increased from - 95 yuan/ton to - 91 yuan/ton, a rise of 4 yuan/ton. - Rebar weekly output decreased from 221.08 tons to 216.66 tons, a drop of 4.42 tons; Hot - rolled coil weekly output decreased from 328.14 tons to 323.14 tons, a drop of 5 tons [36]. b. Inventory and Consumption Data - Rebar weekly social inventory decreased from 364.74 tons to 359.49 tons, a drop of 5.25 tons; Hot - rolled coil weekly social inventory increased from 266.61 tons to 267.75 tons, a rise of 1.14 tons. - Rebar weekly enterprise inventory increased from 180.47 tons to 180.88 tons, a rise of 0.41 tons; Hot - rolled coil weekly enterprise inventory decreased from 78.32 tons to 77.81 tons, a drop of 0.51 tons. - Rebar weekly apparent consumption decreased from 224.87 tons to 221.5 tons, a drop of 3.37 tons; Hot - rolled coil weekly apparent consumption decreased from 324.37 tons to 322.51 tons, a drop of 1.86 tons. - Building material trading volume increased from 96101 tons to 100789 tons, a rise of 4688 tons [38]. c. Price and Basis Analysis - The report also presented the price trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, as well as their basis trends [39][40][42]. 3. Supply - Demand Data Analysis - Analyzed blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates [44]. - Studied the actual weekly output of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Chinese steel enterprises [49][51]. - Analyzed steel profit, including the average profit of electric - furnace building steel in China [53][56]. - Studied the factory and social inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Chinese steel enterprises [57][58][60][61]. - Analyzed the trading volume of building steel by mainstream traders in China [62]. - Studied the weekly apparent consumption changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil [64]. - Analyzed China's steel export volume, real - estate development investment, sales area, new construction area, construction area, completion area, and manufacturing PMI [66][67][68][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The allocation value of stock indices continues to increase, with a clear upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to buy IF and IM far - month contracts on dips [1]. - The intention to protect liquidity in the bond market is clear, and the expectation of the bond market has slightly improved, but it is difficult to form a trend - based market [1]. - For precious metals, the short - term gold price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise. It is advisable to buy on dips or hold short out - of - the - money put options. Silver has a high probability of upward valuation repair [4]. - For base metals, copper, aluminum, and nickel prices are expected to be range - bound, while alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile [4]. - For energy and chemical products, crude oil prices have limited upside potential and will maintain high volatility; methanol and polyolefin prices are expected to decline [10]. - For building materials, the prices of soda ash and glass are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions [8]. - For steel and coal, the prices of steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to be volatile, with a weakening trend [5][8]. - For agricultural products, cotton prices are expected to be range - bound, and rubber prices are expected to be weakly volatile [10]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Indices - Last week, the A - share market was strong, with communication and non - ferrous metals leading the gains, and home appliances and automobiles leading the losses. The trading volume on Friday decreased slightly to 1.18 trillion yuan. - In June, the A - share market started well, with technology stocks driving market sentiment and slightly boosting trading volume. - Overseas macro uncertainties have reduced global economic growth expectations, but Chinese assets have attracted the attention of foreign institutions. - The upward trend of stock indices is clear, but short - term breakthroughs require an increase in trading volume. It is recommended to buy IF and IM far - month contracts on dips [1]. Bonds - The central bank's intention to protect the market is clear, and the early announcement of repurchase operations has boosted market confidence. - Last Friday, bond futures closed higher. After the China - US call, China - US economic and trade consultations will be held in London. - The macro situation is uncertain, and the bond market is difficult to form a trend - based market. Short - term market conditions are mainly affected by liquidity [1]. Precious Metals - Gold: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise. It is advisable to buy on dips or hold short out - of - the money put options. - Silver: The gold - silver ratio is high, and the valuation of silver is low. If the gold price remains strong, the probability of upward valuation repair of silver increases. It is advisable to hold short out - of - the money put options [4]. Base Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a range. Macro uncertainties remain high, and the supply of copper ore is still tight. - The demand is affected by macro uncertainties and the domestic consumption off - season. - LME inventories are decreasing, while COMEX and SHFE inventories are increasing. Copper prices are expected to remain range - bound [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: The supply is uncertain, but the short - term impact is weakening. The resumption of production is expected to increase supply pressure, and prices may continue to run close to the cost line. - Aluminum: The supply is constrained, with support at the bottom, but the demand policy is uncertain, and the directional driving force is limited [4]. Nickel - The supply of nickel ore is gradually recovering, and the supply of refined nickel is in excess. The demand from the stainless steel and new energy sectors is weak. - The price of nickel is expected to remain range - bound, and it is advisable to hold short call options [4]. Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, and geopolitical disturbances continue. The number of US oil rigs has decreased significantly. - The demand for gasoline and diesel in the US is lower than expected. Oil prices have limited upside potential and will maintain high volatility [10]. Methanol - Overseas methanol plant operating rates have increased, and the price of thermal coal is stable. - Affected by positive factors such as the recovery of olefin plant demand and China - US talks, methanol futures prices have rebounded, but further upside is limited [10]. Polyolefins - The production of polyolefins has increased slightly, and more production capacity is expected to resume this week. - Downstream industries are entering the off - season, and the operating rate is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long the L - PP spread [10]. Building Materials Soda Ash - The production of soda ash is expected to increase in June, while demand is weak. The supply is relatively loose, and inventory is high. - It is recommended to hold short positions in the SA509 contract and go short on rebounds near the cash cost line [2][8]. Glass - The glass market has entered the off - season, with weak demand and high inventory. - It is recommended to hold short positions in the FG509 contract and consider long - short spread strategies [8]. Steel and Coal Steel Products - The spot prices of steel products are weak, and demand has entered the off - season. - The results of the China - US trade negotiations will affect market sentiment. It is recommended to hold short call options for rebar and short positions for hot - rolled coils [5][8]. Iron Ore - The static supply - demand structure of imported iron ore is healthy, but the supply is expected to increase seasonally, and demand may decline. - It is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination or short the I2601 contract with a stop - loss [5][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - The supply of coking coal is in excess, and the price rebound is not sustainable. - The demand for coke is weak, and the price is under pressure [8]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The weather in the Xinjiang cotton - producing area is normal, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. - It is advisable to hold positions patiently and wait for a breakthrough in the price range [10]. Rubber - The supply of rubber is increasing, while demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [10].