Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings by Industry - Agriculture, Forestry, and Livestock (Corn): Bullish on dips [2] - Pig: Range trading [5] - Egg: Short on rallies [5] 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the short - term, spot prices are stabilizing during the new - old crop transition, with support and resistance levels. In the medium - term, trading is driven by new - season factors. In the long - term, pricing is based on import substitution and planting costs [2]. - **Pig**: Short - term supply exceeds demand, pressuring prices. Medium - term supply is expected to increase. Long - term, high sow inventory and high efficiency will lead to continuous production [5]. - **Egg**: In the medium - short term, post - mid - month, price momentum weakens. In the long term, supply pressure may re - emerge depending on hen culling [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn - **Market Review**: Overnight, the corn futures had a narrow - range oscillation. The 2511 contract rose 0.23% to close at 2156 yuan/ton [2]. - **Important Information**: Deep - processing enterprise purchase prices fluctuated; port prices were stable to firm; futures warehouse receipts decreased; the wheat - corn price spread was positive [2]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term, spot prices are stabilizing, and the price is affected by import auctions and price spreads. Medium - term, it's driven by new - season factors. Long - term, it follows the import substitution and planting cost logic [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the medium - long term. Look for short - term low - buying opportunities near support levels [2]. Pig - **Market Review**: The pig futures continued to decline. The LH2511 contract dropped 1.48% to close at 12665 yuan/ton [5]. - **Important Information**: The national average pig price decreased; sow inventory was high; the price spread between fattening and standard pigs narrowed; the weekly average slaughter weight increased; futures warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term, supply exceeds demand. Medium - term, supply is expected to increase. Long - term, high sow inventory will lead to continuous production [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Near - month contracts are based on supply - demand logic. Consider taking profits on short positions. Far - month contracts focus on the expected change in sow inventory [5]. Egg - **Market Review**: The egg futures continued to decline. The JD2511 contract dropped 1% to close at 3065 yuan/500kg [5]. - **Important Information**: Egg prices were stable; inventory increased; the price of culled hens rose; the estimated laying - hen inventory decreased in September [5]. - **Market Logic**: Medium - short term, price momentum weakens after mid - month. Long - term, supply pressure may re - emerge depending on hen culling [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a short - on - rallies strategy. Look for selling - hedging opportunities for high - price contracts for farmers [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 钢矿周报（7.7-7.11） CONTENTS 目 录 基本面分析 1 The first chapter of the small title 2 1、原料市场状况分析 一周数据变化 综述及观点总结 2 The third chapter of the small title | 项目 | 上期数据 | 本期数据 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PB粉价格（元/湿吨） | 723 | 748 | 25 | | 巴混粉价格（元/湿吨） | 757 | 782 | 25 | | PB粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | -6.78 | -5.59 | 1.19 | | 巴混粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | 12.42 ...

Core Viewpoint - The hot-rolled futures market experienced a significant increase, with the main contract reaching a peak of 3196.00 yuan, closing at 3191.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.24% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - According to Ruida Futures, the hot-rolled market is expected to experience short-term rebounds, but caution regarding rhythm and risk control is advised [2] - The macroeconomic environment shows a recovery in manufacturing, with the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI at 50.4, up 2.1 points from May, indicating a return above the critical point [2] - Supply and demand dynamics indicate an increase in weekly hot-rolled production, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.59%, while total inventory saw a slight increase of 0.99 million tons [2] Group 2: Industry Outlook - According to Fozheng Zhongqi Futures, the rebound in hot-rolled prices may face limitations due to various factors, including administrative measures to reduce low-price competition and promote quality improvement in the steel industry [3] - The steel industry has shown decent profitability in the first five months of the year, with black metal and rolling industry profits exceeding those of the same period last year [3] - Current low steel inventory levels reduce the necessity for administrative production cuts, but there are concerns about potential export restrictions on semi-finished products, which could lead to increased domestic production cuts if demand weakens in the third quarter [3]