Core Viewpoint - The Congolese government has extended the cobalt export ban until October 15, 2025, and implemented an export quota system for 2026-2027, limiting exports to 44% of annual production, indicating a strong intention to control global cobalt prices [1][4][6] Group 1: Export Policy Changes - The Congolese government announced the extension of the cobalt export ban and the introduction of an export quota system, which aligns with market expectations [2] - The export quota will not apply to companies with less than 100 tons of cobalt exports in 2024, those without active mining operations for five years, and companies with depleted cobalt reserves [2][3] Group 2: Cobalt Export Quota Details - The export quota for October 16 to December 31, 2025, is set at 18,125 tons, with specific monthly allocations [3] - For 2026, the total export quota is 96,600 tons, which includes a baseline quota of 87,000 tons and a strategic quota of 9,600 tons, managed by ARECOMS [3] - The 2027 export quota will remain the same as 2026, but ARECOMS reserves the right to adjust it based on market conditions [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - The new export quota policy is expected to lead to a significant decline in global cobalt supply, with shortages projected at 12.2, 8.8, and 9.7 million tons for 2025-2027 [4][5] - Global cobalt demand is anticipated to grow, with expected demand of 25.7 million tons in 2025 and 27.5 million tons in 2026, indicating a persistent supply shortage [5] Group 4: Government's Strategic Intent - The consistency of the Congolese government's cobalt policies reflects its commitment to controlling global cobalt prices and managing supply effectively [6] - The government is expected to adjust supply flexibly to stabilize cobalt prices, marking a new phase in the global cobalt industry [6]

近日，齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点记者从清远海关行政处罚公示获悉，广东佳纳能源科技有限公司在经营保税货物的加工业务中，未经海关许可，将部分进口保税 料件存放于非海关备案场所。 上述行为未按海关规定办理手续，罚款10万元。 中华人民共和国清远海关 行政处罚决定书 清关缉违字〔2025〕12号 当事人:广东佳纳能源科技有限公司,法定代表人:刘鑫 炉,统一社会信用代码:914418007545493583 地 址:英德市青塘镇 经我关调查,当事人有以下违法行为:2024年8月8日 至2024年10月15日间,当事人在经营保税货物的加工业务 中,未经海关许可,将部分进口保税料件存放于韶关市翁 源县官渡镇行政中心区的临时租赁仓库,该仓库非海关备 案场所,涉及保税料件钴湿法冶炼中间品396包,重量 259.74吨,案发后,当事人把涉案货物运回公司存放。据 此,认定当事人经营保税货物的储存,未按海关规定办理 手续,涉案货物价值人民币982.247013万元。 广东佳纳能源科技有限公司，坐落于广东省清远英德市青塘镇，成立于2003年10月，是芜湖佳纳能源科技有限公司控股子公司。芜湖佳纳能源科技有限公司 为广东道氏技术股份有限公司（30 ...

Summary of Cobalt Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cobalt industry is significantly impacted by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which holds 55% of global cobalt reserves and accounts for 76% of global production [3][12] - The DRC's export ban on cobalt has led to substantial price increases, with MB cobalt prices rising by 58%, intermediate cobalt products by 91%, and domestic metal cobalt by 47% since the ban was implemented [2][12] Key Points and Arguments - The DRC's export ban, initiated on February 24, 2025, aims to address oversupply issues in the global cobalt market [2] - The ban's impact is evident, with a significant drop in imports to China from the DRC, with cobalt wet-process intermediate imports decreasing by 42% year-on-year and 61% month-on-month in June [10] - Indonesia's cobalt production, which constitutes only 10% of global supply, is insufficient to fill the gap left by the DRC's export restrictions, despite a 40% increase in nickel wet-process intermediate production [6] - Domestic demand for cobalt in China has seen a 3% decline in ternary precursor production, with the battery sector representing the largest share of demand at 47% [7] Future Policy Directions - The DRC government is likely to extend or adjust the export ban to stabilize market conditions, with a decision expected by September 21, 2025 [9][12] - The DRC's strategy includes controlling supply to maintain higher price levels and enhance its international influence [12] Market Predictions - The global cobalt market is projected to shift from oversupply to a shortage by 2025 if the DRC maintains its export restrictions [13] - Current market predictions for cobalt quotas are around 70%, indicating a potential tightening of supply [15] Price Trends - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to the DRC's clear intent to increase prices, with market indicators already reflecting upward trends [17] - Domestic cobalt prices have shown stability, but the tightening supply is anticipated to lead to price increases in the near future [16] Investment Recommendations - Companies in Indonesia with wet-process nickel-cobalt refining capabilities, such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources, are recommended as they are less affected by DRC policies [18] - Companies with cobalt mining or refining capabilities in the DRC, such as Luoyang Mining, Tengyuan Cobalt, and Hanrui Cobalt, are also recommended due to their potential for profit growth post-policy adjustments [19] Additional Insights - The DRC's export ban has led to a significant reduction in cobalt inventories in China, indicating a shift towards a tighter supply environment [10][11] - The DRC's control over cobalt supply positions it as a critical player in the global market, with its policies directly influencing prices and availability [12]