1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, before and after the Spring Festival, the non - ferrous metal market showed a differentiated pattern. Macro factors dominated the price direction of non - ferrous metals, while the differences in the fundamentals of each variety led to the differentiation of inventory and consumption performance. The post - festival resumption of work rhythm would be the key variable [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Copper - **Pricing and Supply - side Situation**: The pricing of copper is more inclined to the framework of "macro - led direction, supply rigidity provides bottom support". The short - term upward movement of copper prices is often driven by macro factors, and the mid - term support comes from the "rigidity" of the supply side. In January 2026, the copper mine supply was tight, and the spot TC continued to decline, reaching a record low of - 49.84 US dollars per dry ton at the end of the month [12]. - **Refining and Supply**: Near the Spring Festival, the refined copper smelting showed the characteristics of tight raw materials, stable production, and limited impact of maintenance. Although the spot TC of copper concentrate continued to decline, the supply of recycled copper and waste anode plates was loose, supporting the high - level production of smelters. The estimated impact of smelter maintenance on refined copper production in January was about 20,000 tons. It is expected that the Yangshan copper premium will fluctuate within a narrow range, and the net import volume of refined copper will remain relatively stable [16]. - **Downstream Processing**: During the approach of the Spring Festival, the copper processing industry showed a co - existence of seasonal stocking demand and the inhibitory effect of high prices. The starting rate of refined copper rods recovered from 47.82% at the beginning of the month to 69.54% at the end of the month. The finished product inventory increased by 3.91% month - on - month, indicating that the actual digestion ability of the terminal market was still insufficient. The starting rate of copper cables increased slightly at the end of the year, with State Grid orders as the core support. The enameled wire sector was relatively strong, with the starting rate maintained at 79% - 83% [17]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of February 5, 2026, the copper social inventory had reached 335,800 tons, and the pre - festival inventory was at a relatively high level. If the subsequent arrival increases, the downstream resumption of work is slow, or the spot maintains a discount pattern, the peak of inventory accumulation may further rise; otherwise, the window for the decline of high inventory after the festival may appear earlier [18][19]. Lead - **Supply - side Situation**: Before the Spring Festival, the lead concentrate market was in a pattern of tight supply and rising costs. The processing fees were at a low level, and the production cost of smelting enterprises increased. In February, the supply and demand of the lead concentrate industry would enter a weak stage. After the festival, the supply - tight pattern of the lead concentrate market would intensify, and the processing fees would likely continue to run at a low level [20][22]. - **Consumption - side Situation**: The lead market showed the characteristic of "even weaker in the off - season". The consumer market of electric bicycle batteries was weak, and the inventory of dealers was high. The export orders of automobile batteries decreased. The weekly starting rate of lead - battery enterprises dropped to about 69% and continued to decline. After the festival, the resumption of work rhythm would be the key variable, and the actual restocking demand of the downstream would be gradually released after the Lantern Festival [22][23]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of February 5, 2026, the lead ingot social inventory had reached 40,400 tons, and the inventory accumulation started earlier than in previous years. If the subsequent lead concentrate arrival increases, the resumption of work of lead - battery enterprises after the festival is slow, or the spot discount pattern continues, the peak of inventory accumulation may further rise; otherwise, the window for the decline of high inventory after the festival may appear earlier [28][29]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Situation**: After New Year's Day, the price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract rose by 16%, but the price transmission was blocked, and the downstream consumption was severely suppressed. The spot discount of aluminum ingots widened rapidly, and the aluminum rod entered a negative processing fee. The production of aluminum rods and aluminum sheets and foils decreased significantly [30][32]. - **Inventory Situation**: From December 18, 2025, to early February, the inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots had reached 239,000 tons. It is expected that the peak of inventory accumulation this year may reach 1.4 million tons, and if the aluminum price remains high, the inventory accumulation may reach 1.5 million tons [40]. Zinc - **Price and Market Performance**: After New Year's Day, the zinc ingot price rose by 15%. Although it was in the consumption off - season, the downstream processing enterprises were less sensitive to the absolute price of zinc, and the rigid demand for procurement still existed. The starting rate of downstream consumption remained strong and resilient until the end of January, and entered the off - season in February, which was in line with the seasonal performance in previous years [43]. - **Inventory Situation**: In 2026, the inventory accumulation of zinc started in February, about 15 days before the Chinese New Year, which was not much different from previous years. It is expected that the peak of inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival this year will be less than 250,000 tons, close to 200,000 tons [43][46]. - **Supply - side and Valuation**: The current smelting loss of zinc is at a historical high level. Although the by - product income is high, the comprehensive smelting profit is still partially in a loss state. The zinc price valuation is not high, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze if the inventory is quickly depleted after the festival [54]. Operation Suggestions - For copper, pay attention to the post - festival resumption of work progress and inventory depletion rhythm, and lay out long positions on dips [5]. - For aluminum, be vigilant against high - inventory pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [5]. - For lead, pay attention to the release of restocking demand after the Lantern Festival, and mainly conduct range operations for the time being [5]. - For zinc, the smelting loss supports the price, it is recommended to go long on dips, and pay attention to the risk of a short squeeze [5].

美铜在前高位置震荡，市场进入指引真空期 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2026年1月26日沪铜主力合约收于101880元/吨；LME铜 价收于13128.5美元/吨。基差方面，SMM升水铜贴水从2026年1月23日 的-110元/吨加深至2026年1月26日的-135元/吨；LME(0-3)贴水从-82.84美 元/吨收窄至-66.06美元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：LME铜持仓在2026年1月23日增加9606手至325527手，持仓量 扩大；市场交投活跃度边际回暖，但现货成交受贴水压制维持清淡。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 孙皓 从业编号：F03118712 投资咨询：Z0019405 sunhao@thqh.com.cn 供给端 ：供给端压力增加，SHFE于2026年1月26日批准江铜国兴新增18万 吨冶炼产能注册，提升国内供应；BHP罢工事件导致道路封锁，但2026年1 月资讯显示暂未影响铜矿生产。LME、SHFE和COMEX库存均上升，反映供给 充 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Headwinds - The market is increasingly concerned about "stagflation" in the U.S. economy, with the services PMI nearing the threshold and the price index soaring to 69.9%, a three-year high [2] - Investors are selling industrial metals like copper in favor of safe-haven assets such as gold and government bonds due to fears of stagnant growth and high inflation [2] Group 2: Tariff Policy Impact - The tariff policy from the Trump administration has targeted the copper supply chain, imposing a 50% tax on semi-finished products like copper cables while exempting refined copper [3] - This has led U.S. wire importers to cancel orders and forced Chinese copper processing companies to relocate to Southeast Asia to avoid high tariffs [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Uncertainty - The sudden announcement of changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership has raised concerns about potential delays in interest rate cuts, prompting copper bulls to exit the market [4] - This uncertainty has contributed to increased market volatility and further depressed copper prices [4] Group 4: Inventory Dynamics - LME copper inventories surged by 14,275 tons (10.23%) on August 5, reaching a five-month high, primarily due to U.S. traders selling off during the tariff exemption window [7] - In contrast, the Chinese market is experiencing a shortage of copper, with significant price discrepancies between regions, indicating an underlying inventory crisis [7] Group 5: Industry Chain Challenges - Copper concentrate processing fees have dropped to -42.09 USD/ton, resulting in losses for smelters [8] - The cost of production for Chilean copper has risen to 2.10 USD/pound, while smelters are struggling to maintain profitability [8] Group 6: Market Reactions - On August 6, stocks of copper companies like Tongling Nonferrous and Jiangxi Copper saw significant price increases, driven by speculation around policy expectations [9] - However, futures markets remain focused on real inventory levels and weak consumption, leading to narrow trading ranges for copper contracts [9] Group 7: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, the demand for copper driven by electrification remains strong, with Tesla's Shanghai factory increasing copper cable orders by 35% year-on-year [10] - Strategic stockpiling activities by various entities, including the Chinese state reserves and U.S. military contractors, are also noteworthy [10] Group 8: Conclusion - The short-term fluctuations in copper prices are influenced by a complex interplay of macroeconomic factors, tariff policies, supply chain dynamics, and market expectations [12] - The future trajectory of copper prices will depend on the resolution of these interrelated factors [12]

Report Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core View The copper market may continue its low-level oscillation in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The contradiction between stable domestic smelting capacity release and tight overseas LME inventory on the supply side, combined with the deepening off - season and high copper prices suppressing procurement on the demand side, makes it difficult for orders in the construction and electronics sectors to support prices. Macroeconomic factors such as the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the weak domestic economic recovery also suppress the valuation of commodities [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Market Data Changes**: On July 8, the SHFE copper main contract closed at 79,510 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous trading day. The basis weakened significantly, with the premium of flat - copper dropping from 80 yuan/ton on July 2 to 55 yuan/ton, and the premium/discount of wet - copper widening from - 5 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) premium fell to 79.8 dollars/ton. The SHFE copper's inter - month BACK spread narrowed from 250 yuan/ton to 190 yuan/ton. The LME copper's open interest decreased by 3,072 lots to 281,488 lots on July 7, and the SHFE inventory increased to 102,500 tons in a single week [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes**: On the supply side, domestic supply remained stable with high utilization of smelting capacity, while overseas LME inventory decreased continuously. On the demand side, the off - season effect deepened, with weak demand in the power and electronics sectors. The copper cable operating rate was 72.41% with a 7.52% increase in finished product inventory, and the copper strip processing fee collapsed. The operating rates of various industries were expected to decline further in July. On the inventory side, the inventory differentiation intensified, with the continuous decline of LME inventory possibly reflecting European restocking demand, while the SHFE inventory exceeded 100,000 tons due to weak domestic consumption [2]. - **Market Conclusion**: The copper market may continue its low - level oscillation in the next 1 - 2 weeks due to the supply - demand contradiction and macro - level factors [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Data**: On July 8, 2025, the SMM:1 copper price was 79,910 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from July 7. The premium of premium copper was 115 yuan/ton, down 8.00%. The premium of flat - copper was 55 yuan/ton, down 21.43%. The premium/discount of wet - copper was - 40 yuan/ton, down 300.00%. The LME (0 - 3) was 51 dollars/ton, down 35.70%. The SHFE price was 79,510 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The LME price was 9,665 dollars/ton, down 1.22% [5]. - **Inventory Data**: The LME inventory was 19,109 tons, down 11.87% from July 7. The SHFE inventory was 102,500 tons, up 5.24%. The COMEX inventory was 221,788 short tons, up 0.15% [5]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Enterprise Projects**: On July 2, China Copper Industry established a mining research institute. Northern Copper's calendered copper foil production capacity is 5000 tons/year [6]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: In June, the operating rate of SMM copper cable enterprises decreased by 9.27% month - on - month to 72.41%, and is expected to drop to 71.98% in July. The copper strip processing fee declined significantly, and the operating rate in June was 67.44%, expected to drop to 63.44% in July [6]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on China PMI, US PMI, US employment, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [7][9][13][16][18][22][23][26][27].