1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Volatile [1] - Silver: Volatile [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term bull market for gold remains intact, and the gold price is in the process of bottom - building. The second quarter is expected to see the gold price oscillate and build a bottom, with opportunities for configuration on pullbacks. [2][4] - Geopolitical disturbances, such as the Middle - East war, have increased the risk of global economic stagflation. The US economy faces challenges in terms of inflation, employment, and fiscal pressure. [2][23] - The Fed is in a difficult position. The threshold for raising interest rates is high, and its policy adjustment may lag behind the inflation rise. [2][44] - The global central banks' gold - buying speed has slowed down, which will increase the volatility of gold. [3][57] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Gold's Violent Fluctuations - **First - quarter gold price trend review**: London gold started at $4300 per ounce at the beginning of the year, reaching a high of $5598 per ounce on January 29 and a low of $4098 per ounce on March 23, with an amplitude of about 35%. The one - month at - the - money option volatility reached a maximum of 37.7%. [12] - **Reasons for price fluctuations**: In January, geopolitical risks and the silver short - squeeze pushed up the price. Then, the Fed's hawkish stance and the nomination of Kevin Warsh led to a price correction. In February, geopolitical risks drove a rebound. In March, due to the war's impact on energy prices and central banks' selling of gold reserves, the price fell. [12][15][21] 3.2 Middle - East War Intensifies Global Economic Stagflation Risk - **First - quarter US economic performance and future risks**: In Q1 2026, the US economy was in the expansion zone, but there were signs of stagflation. Energy price hikes and tariff policies will increase inflation pressure, and the employment market is not stable. [23][27] - **Rapid rise in inflation pressure**: Energy prices soared in March, and the US CPI is expected to rise significantly in Q2. Tariff policies also contribute to inflation. [30][31] - **Unstable employment market**: Since the second half of 2025, the US employment market has been weak. In February 2026, non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000. The employment market shows a decline in vitality. [33][35] 3.3 The Fed is in a Dilemma and May Lag Behind the Situation - **Delayed Fed rate - cut expectations and high rate - hike threshold**: In 2026, the Fed's rate - cut expectations have decreased, and there are signs of a possible rate hike. However, due to the supply - side shock, the rate - hike threshold is high. [44][45] - **Increased military spending and greater US fiscal pressure**: The Trump administration's fiscal policy is expansionary. The military strike against Iran has increased military spending, and the fiscal deficit may increase. [53][54] - **Slowed global central banks' gold - buying and increased gold volatility**: In 2025, the global central banks' gold - buying volume decreased by 21% year - on - year. In 2026, some central banks sold gold reserves, increasing gold's volatility. [57][58] 3.4 Summary and Outlook: Gold Oscillates to Build a Bottom and Wait for Configuration Opportunities - **Gold outlook**: The long - term gold bull market is not over. In Q2, the gold price is expected to oscillate and build a bottom. The support price for London gold is $4000 per ounce, and the high is seen at $5300 per ounce. The Shanghai gold futures main contract will operate in the range of 900 - 1200 yuan per gram. [4][67] - **Silver outlook**: The silver price has returned to normal after reaching a peak. The gold - silver ratio has room to rise. The London silver price is expected to operate in the range of $60 - 100 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver main contract will operate in the range of 15,000 - 23,000 yuan per gram. [70][73]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - **Likely Factors**: Anticipated reduction in Indonesian nickel ore quotas and sulfur supply risks (blockade of the Strait of Hormuz) support the supply side; Shanghai Free Trade Zone inventory remains flat, and overseas inventory has decreased [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The macro - environment faces pressure, with concerns about economic stagflation due to the energy crisis and high oil prices; nickel prices are volatile due to macro - factors, leading to panic selling and a weakening market [3]. - **Trading Advice**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and closely monitor macro - dynamics and Indonesian supply - side news [3]. Summary by Directory Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: The latest values of Shanghai nickel main contract, consecutive contracts, and LME nickel 3M have increased, with weekly growth rates of 2.17%, 2.03%, 2.07%, 2.07%, and 1.97% respectively; trading volume decreased by 11.12%, while open interest increased by 0.1%, and warehouse receipts increased by 1.59%; the basis of the main contract decreased by 48.65% [4]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The latest values of stainless steel main contract and consecutive contracts have increased, with weekly growth rates of 3%, 2.31%, 2.47%, and 2.52% respectively; trading volume increased by 4.84%, open interest increased by 1.66%, and warehouse receipts increased by 11.83%; the basis of the main contract decreased by 37.19% [4]. - **Nickel Spot**: The prices of金川 nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, and nickel beans have increased, with daily growth rates of 0.74%, 1.30%, 1.12%, and 1.31% respectively [4]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social nickel inventory increased by 959 tons to 88449 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 216 tons to 282240 tons, stainless steel social inventory increased by 2.7 tons to 982 tons, and nickel pig iron inventory decreased by 879 tons to 29346 tons [5]. Charts - **Nickel Price Trends**: Charts show the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures main contract and LME nickel (3 - month) electronic disk, as well as the closing price of stainless steel futures main contract, and the average spot price of nickel [6][8][10]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Charts display China's refined nickel monthly production, total monthly supply of primary nickel (including imports), Philippine laterite nickel ore prices, China's port nickel ore inventory, domestic social nickel inventory, LME nickel inventory, China's and Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production [12][13][15][16][17]. - **Downstream Products**: Charts show the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, its premium, the profit margin of nickel beans for producing nickel sulfate, the profit of producing electrowon nickel from externally - sourced nickel sulfate, China's monthly production of nickel sulfate, and the monthly production capacity of ternary precursors [19][21][22][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Charts show the profit margin of China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil, monthly stainless steel production, and stainless steel inventory [25][27][28].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of rising oil prices on the global economy, emphasizing that traditional economic analyses may overestimate this impact due to the complexities of oil supply and demand dynamics [4][5]. Group 1: Impact of Rising Oil Prices on the Global Economy - Rising oil prices lead to increased net import expenditures, which can reduce actual income and lower domestic consumption and investment demand [5]. - The analysis suggests that oil price increases represent a redistribution of global income from oil-importing countries to oil-exporting countries, which can have mixed effects on global economic growth [5][10]. - Historical data from 2003-2007 shows that while oil prices rose significantly, global oil demand did not decrease, indicating that the economic impact was limited during that period [12]. Group 2: Key Indicators for Economic Analysis - Global oil consumption is a leading indicator of economic activity; a decrease in oil consumption alongside rising prices suggests significant negative impacts on economic activity [11]. - The article notes that the price elasticity of oil demand has decreased compared to the 1970s, meaning that rising prices do not necessarily lead to a reduction in consumption [12]. Group 3: Supply Shocks vs. Price Increases - The negative impact of a significant decline in oil supply is much greater than that of price increases due to risk premiums; supply shocks can directly disrupt production and consumption [13]. - Historical examples, such as the 1973 oil embargo, illustrate the severe economic consequences of sudden supply shortages [13]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Current market reactions to rising oil prices are primarily driven by increased risk premiums rather than fundamental economic impacts [14]. - The article argues that the stock market's response to oil price increases reflects heightened uncertainty rather than a direct correlation to economic fundamentals [14]. Group 5: Tail Risks and Economic Structure - The article highlights the importance of considering tail risks, such as potential geopolitical events that could lead to significant supply disruptions, which would have a more profound economic impact than mere price increases [16]. - A comparison of current economic conditions with those of the 1970s suggests that the global economy is better positioned to handle supply shocks due to a more favorable producer-to-consumer ratio [17][21].

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant downturn on March 23, with all three major indices dropping over 3%, and the North Stock 50 index falling more than 5% [2] - The coal sector showed strong performance, with companies like Yunmei Energy and Liaoning Energy hitting the daily limit up [2] - Conversely, the tourism sector saw substantial declines, with multiple stocks such as Sanxia Tourism and Guilin Tourism hitting the daily limit down [2] - Overall, nearly 5200 stocks in the two markets declined, indicating a broad market sell-off [2] Sector Analysis Coal Sector - CITIC Securities reported that ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to sustained increases in international oil and gas prices [3] - Despite short-term demand challenges for thermal coal, chemical coal demand is expected to continue, supporting a rebound in coal prices [3] - The outlook for coking coal prices remains positive due to improved short-term demand, and the sector is expected to perform well [3] Oil and Gas Sector - Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 oil price forecast due to extended disruptions in transportation through the Strait of Hormuz and heightened concerns about global supply concentration [4] - The firm anticipates that persistent inflationary pressures will support commodity-related currencies and increase market concerns regarding central bank policies [4] Institutional Perspectives - Analysts from Industrial Securities noted that recent market adjustments stem from two main concerns: the risk of economic "stagflation" and the potential escalation of conflicts, both of which may not represent the final outcome of the current situation [8] - They suggest that an escalation in conflict could paradoxically create opportunities for market recovery, as the most pessimistic sentiments often precede market rebounds [8] - Galaxy Securities analysts believe that the duration and evolution of geopolitical conflicts remain uncertain, which will continue to disrupt global risk assets in the short term [9] - They expect the A-share market to have limited downside, likely experiencing oscillations and structural rotations to absorb external pressures [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials have indicated a potential shift in monetary policy, with discussions around interest rate cuts and the impact of geopolitical tensions on inflation and the economy [2][4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year, despite concerns about the labor market [2][3]. - Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated he would support rate cuts later this year if signs of labor market weakness emerge, while also being cautious about inflation pressures from geopolitical events [4][5]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that traders now see a greater than 30% chance of a rate hike by the end of the year, contrasting with the expectation of rate cuts [2][5]. Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has led to rising oil prices, which may contribute to renewed inflationary pressures in the U.S., potentially delaying rate cuts or prompting rate hikes [2][4][6]. - Waller highlighted that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to increased inflation, affecting core inflation metrics [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - President Trump has publicly supported the investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which may complicate the confirmation process for Kevin Warsh as Powell's potential successor [7][8]. - The investigation focuses on cost overruns related to the renovation of the Fed's headquarters, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed from political influence [8][9]. - Powell's term as Fed Chair ends in May, but he will continue to serve until a successor is confirmed [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, iron ore is affected by supply - side and geopolitical disturbances, making it difficult to price based on fundamentals, and it is expected to fluctuate. Medium - to long - term, the high - inventory pressure is hard to ease, and the overall situation remains loose. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be large, and the medium - term performance is expected to be weakly fluctuating. In the short term, the downside space is limited, and it may enter a high - level consolidation phase [2][5] Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures prices**: The main iron ore futures contract showed a slightly stronger intraday oscillation, closing at 815.5 yuan/ton, up 8.0 yuan/ton or 0.99% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 247,000 lots, the open interest was 450,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.077 billion yuan. The short - term support is around 795, and the short - term resistance is around 825, showing a slightly stronger oscillation within the support - resistance range [1] - **Spot prices**: The mainstream port spot varieties, Qingdao Port PB powder, rose 3 to 794, and Super Special powder rose 3 to 673. The swap main contract was at 108.35 (+0.9) US dollars/ton. The swap was highly volatile, and the spot prices rose slightly [1] - **Basis and spread**: The converted futures price of Qingdao Port PB powder was 826.9 yuan/ton, with a basis of 11.4 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 34.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 22 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, with both Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries showing month - on - month rebounds. The arrivals this period decreased month - on - month, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuated [2] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel mills increased month - on - month. After the Two Sessions, the environmental protection restrictions in Hebei were lifted, and the blast furnaces under maintenance resumed production. The hot metal production recovered month - on - month, and some steel mills extended the resumption of production. There is still room for hot metal recovery. Attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand [2] - **Inventory**: The iron ore port inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, the berthing inventory declined, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory accumulated [2] - **Overall situation**: Under the background of continuous supply - side and geopolitical disturbances, it is difficult to price iron ore based on fundamentals. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate. In the medium - to long - term, the high - inventory pressure is hard to ease, and the overall situation remains loose. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be large, and the medium - term performance is expected to be weakly fluctuating [2] Macro - level Analysis - **Domestic**: After the important meetings, the domestic macro - economy has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. This week, the domestic export, inflation, and financial data were mainly released, and the overall data performance was relatively good. The macro - fundamentals maintained resilience, increasing the probability of a "good start" in the first quarter. The reality of external demand resilience has been initially confirmed, and the resilience of domestic demand is still reflected in the financial and capital levels. High - frequency commodity consumption is still at a seasonal low after the Spring Festival resumption of work. In the future, attention should be paid to the progress of domestic demand investment repair, the impact of imported inflation on the domestic price structure, and the sustainability of export resilience [4] - **Overseas**: The market is gradually pricing in the possibility that the high - oil - price environment may continue, and the market's concern about the US economic stagflation in the first quarter has further intensified. In the future, the overseas macro - logic may gradually shift from the "soft landing" expectation driven by the loosening of liquidity to the arrival time and amplitude of "inflation" and the possibility and time of the shift from "inflation" to "stagflation" [4] Viewpoint Summary - The iron ore fundamentals show that the supply is still loose, the hot metal production on the demand side has decreased, the resumption of production has been delayed, and the port inventory has declined to some extent. The overall fundamentals are still weak. Under the double disturbances of the supply side and geopolitics, it is difficult to trade based on the fundamental logic. The iron ore futures and spot show a positive basis, and the BACK structure continues. In the short term, the downside space is limited, and it may enter a high - level consolidation phase. Attention should be paid to further tests near the upper resistance [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve emphasizes inflation concerns over economic stagnation, indicating a hawkish stance in its recent monetary policy meeting, with a focus on rising inflation risks rather than economic downturn risks [2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting highlighted the unclear impact of Middle Eastern tensions on the economy, making it difficult to provide precise economic forecasts [2]. - The economic projections in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) were revised upward, reflecting increased inflation expectations [2]. - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate decision, with a median forecast of one rate cut this year, although many officials lowered their expectations for the number of cuts and discussed the possibility of rate hikes, indicating a generally hawkish outlook [2]. Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - Short-term inflation expectations are driven by tariffs and geopolitical risks, which are suppressing rate cut expectations; however, these factors are expected to have a temporary impact, with potential for rate cut expectations to rise in the second half of the year [3]. - The influence of tariffs is becoming clearer, with the expectation that any increases will be limited and viewed as one-time impacts on inflation, alleviating concerns from the Federal Reserve [3]. - The labor market remains weak, necessitating further rate cuts, but short-term inflation pressures are hindering this process; if tariffs and geopolitical risks stabilize, inflation expectations may ease, creating conditions for rate cuts [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Projections - U.S. Treasury yields are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, awaiting renewed rate cut expectations, while U.S. equities may experience volatility but could find support from easing expectations [4]. - The anticipated rate cuts would lower the risk-free rate, supporting equity valuations, and could bolster corporate earnings, potentially reversing economic downturns and initiating recovery [4]. - Short-term volatility in U.S. equities is likely due to geopolitical risks and liquidity concerns, with upward turning points dependent on future developments [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's decision to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the March 2026 FOMC meeting was in line with market expectations, with a hawkish tone pushing the dollar stronger [1][2][11]. - The ongoing geopolitical situation and oil price shocks have increased inflationary pressures and policy uncertainties, and the Fed needs to balance inflation, labor market, and oil price factors [2][4]. - The market should closely monitor the continuation of the strong dollar and oil prices, the impact of the geopolitical situation on energy supply, and the transmission path of inflation and domestic economic policies [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1会前关注点：油价冲击如何影响利率路径 - In the January meeting, the Fed paused rate cuts after three consecutive cuts since September 2025, with a neutral - slightly dovish tone [2]. - After the January meeting, the US labor market data deteriorated, with 92,000 fewer non - farm jobs in February and an unemployment rate of 4.4%. CPI data slowed, but the impact of rising oil prices due to the Middle East situation is expected to be reflected in March CPI data. Core PCE in January was 3.1% year - on - year [2]. - Some institutions have postponed the expected first rate cut this year from June to September due to slow inflation decline [2]. - After the US - Israel military action against Iran at the end of February, about 20 million barrels per day of crude oil supply was disrupted. The market showed a pattern of strong dollar and oil, with precious metals and stocks under pressure [4]. - Two key points in this meeting are whether the Fed will raise the bar for rate cuts due to oil prices and imply the possibility of rate hikes, and whether the new economic forecast will incorporate the impact of oil price shocks, with the dot plot possibly moving towards a more hawkish stance [4]. 3.2会议内容：能源价格抬升下的鹰派暂停，SEP偏向认为供应冲击为一次性事件 - Compared with the January statement, the March statement removed the description of the unemployment rate "showing signs of stabilization", added the statement that the impact of the Middle East situation on the US economy is uncertain, and Fed Governor Milan voted against, suggesting a 25 - basis - point rate cut [6][7]. - The dot plot shows that the Fed officials only adjusted the long - term interest rate forecast. They still expect one 25 - basis - point rate cut this year and one in 2027, with less divergence among officials compared to the December dot plot [7]. - The Fed officials raised GDP growth expectations for the next three years, unemployment rate expectations for next year, and PCE and core PCE inflation expectations for this and next year [8]. - Powell emphasized in the press conference that employment growth has slowed and inflation is still above the 2% target. Energy prices have disrupted the previous monetary policy path, and the possibility of rate hikes has been mentioned, but most officials do not consider it the basic assumption. He also addressed issues related to his position and Fed independence [9][10]. - The Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged was in line with market expectations. The hawkish stance pushed the dollar stronger, and energy prices were strong while US stock indices fell, 2 - year Treasury yields rose, and Bitcoin, gold, and silver prices dropped [11]. 3.3市场展望：跟踪地缘风险以及美元原油双强的演化，中期参与再通胀行情的扩散 - For major assets, risk assets such as equities should be held in light positions or with a structural defensive strategy. Traders can participate in the decline of crude oil volatility and the spread of the re - inflation market in the medium term [13]. - The strong dollar may continue, but its upside is limited. Short - term operations include monitoring the volatility of oil and gold, cashing in long - short strategies for energy commodities, and gradually participating in short - volatility strategies. After the volatility of gold and oil declines, pay attention to the outflow of funds from precious metals and participate in the re - inflation market. Also, track geopolitical events and domestic economic policies [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, iron ore is affected by multiple factors including supply and geopolitical disturbances, making it difficult to price based on fundamentals, and it is expected to fluctuate. In the medium - to - long - term, the high inventory pressure of iron ore is difficult to ease, and the overall situation remains loose. If the macro - disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be greater, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - term [2] - Overall, the iron ore fundamentals are weak with a loose supply, a decline in molten iron production on the demand side, a delayed resumption of production, and an accumulation of port inventory. In the short - term, the downside space is limited, and it may enter a high - level consolidation phase [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures Price: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated during the day, closing at 807.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.43% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 193,000 lots, the position was 447,000 lots, and the settled funds were 7.939 billion yuan. The short - term support is around 790, and the short - term resistance is around 820. In the near future, it may continue to face pressure near the upper resistance and enter a consolidation phase [1] - Spot Price: The mainstream spot varieties at the port, Qingdao Port PB powder, dropped 1 to 793 yuan/ton, and Super Special Powder dropped 1 to 669 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was 107.05 (- 0.3) US dollars/ton. The swap was highly volatile, and the spot price declined slightly [1] - Basis and Spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures surface was 825.8 yuan/ton, with a basis of 18.3 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly contracted. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 31.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 19.5 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, with both Australia, Brazil and non - mainstream countries showing an increase. The arrivals this period decreased month - on - month, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuated [2] - Demand: There was a mismatch in the rhythm of blast furnace inspections and resumptions. The molten iron production decreased significantly month - on - month this period, while the steel mill profitability rate increased. After the Two Sessions, the molten iron production is likely to recover month - on - month, and the daily output of sintered ore increased. Attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand [2] - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory increased slightly month - on - month, the berthing inventory decreased slightly, and the mill inventory decreased slightly [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: After the important meeting, the domestic macro - economy entered the verification period of fundamental reality. This week, domestic export, inflation, and financial data were released, showing relatively good performance. The macro - fundamentals maintained resilience, increasing the probability of a "good start" in the first quarter. The resilience of external demand has been initially confirmed, while the resilience of domestic demand is still reflected in the financial and capital levels, and high - frequency commodity consumption is still at a seasonal low after the Spring Festival resumption of work. In the future, attention should be paid to the progress of domestic demand investment repair, the impact of imported inflation on the domestic price structure, and the sustainability of export resilience [4] - Overseas: The market is gradually pricing in the possibility of a continued high - oil - price environment, and concerns about the economic stagflation in the US in the first quarter have further intensified. In the future, the overseas macro - logic may gradually shift from the "soft landing" expectation driven by the easing of liquidity to the arrival time and magnitude of "inflation" and the possibility and time of the shift from "inflation" to "stagflation" [4]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve emphasizes concerns over inflation ("胀") more than economic stagnation ("滞") in its recent meeting, indicating a hawkish stance[4] - The Fed's economic projections for GDP growth in 2026, 2027, and 2028 are revised to 2.4%, 2.3%, and 2.1% respectively, up from previous estimates[10] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2027 is slightly adjusted from 4.2% to 4.3%[10] Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook - The Fed has raised its inflation forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 to 2.7%, 2.2%, and 2.0% respectively, influenced by oil and tariff shocks[10] - Short-term inflation expectations are primarily driven by tariffs and geopolitical risks, which are expected to have a temporary effect, potentially allowing for interest rate cuts later in the year[11] - The Fed maintains a median forecast of one rate cut for the year, but many officials have lowered their expectations for the number of cuts[4] Group 3: Market Implications - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to experience high volatility in the short term, with a potential decline as rate cut expectations resurface later in the year[19] - The stock market may face continued volatility due to geopolitical risks and liquidity issues, but could benefit from lower interest rates in the future, supporting corporate earnings[21] - The upcoming change in the Fed chair may influence monetary policy, with potential implications for rate cuts in the second half of the year[20] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - There is significant uncertainty regarding the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which could impact economic forecasts[22] - The potential for new tariffs following legal challenges to existing ones poses additional risks to inflation and economic stability[22]