报道称，如果经济增长按计划加速，越南名义GDP有望在2026年或2027年达到5000亿美元水平，超越泰国，人均GDP也将突破5000美元，逐步接 近东南亚第一大经济体——印度尼西亚的水平。 不少外媒也关注到去年一年越南高速的经济增长。美国《外交学者》杂志日前回顾了2025年东南亚地区的一些重大经济事件，并在文章中报道 说，整个地区整体保持了强劲的增长态势，其中越南的表现尤为突出，证明了以出口为导向的发展模式依然行之有效，尤其是在与中国接壤的地 理优势加持下。文章也特别提到，在区域主要经济体中，泰国却成为一个例外：在出口导向型增长模式的压力下，泰国经济正逐渐陷入困境。泰 国经济的增长率很低，且似乎没有明显的解决办法，这主要与全球经济形势、与柬埔寨持续的武装冲突，以及政局变化、政府无法出台太多有效 政策有关。 【环球时报驻越南特派记者 白晓川 环球时报记者 丁雅栀 环球时报特约记者 任重】 编者的话： "随着经济加速增长，越南今年的国内生产总值 （GDP）有望超过泰国。"泰国《国家报》5日以此为题报道称，由于公共投资的推动，越南2026年的名义GDP或将超过泰国。而与此同时，泰国 则正面临经济增长放缓、债务问题 ...

然而，必须清醒认识到，政策驱动的预期改变与现实的过剩压力形成鲜明对峙。当前全球显性库存仍处 于历史高位，庞大的现货存量是抑制价格过快上涨的"压舱石"。下游需求呈现"新强旧弱"的分化：新能 源领域特别是高镍三元电池的需求保持增长韧性，成为核心亮点；而不锈钢等传统消费则因季节性淡季 和终端疲软而承压。这种结构性矛盾意味着，价格上涨的传导和实际消费的消化需要时间，反弹过程将 伴随剧烈震荡。 产业链重塑与未来展望 印尼最新的矿业政策调整，正从源头重塑全球镍产业链。上游资源端的议价能力因供应预期收紧而系统 性强化，而中下游则被迫进入利润再分配与加速洗牌阶段。具体来看，镍矿端受印尼政策支撑与菲律宾 雨季影响，价格维持强势；冶炼端则面临产能扩张与成本挤压的双重压力，高库存持续压制利润空间； 下游需求呈现明显分化，不锈钢行业承受减产与利润倒挂压力，而新能源电池领域对镍的需求虽保持增 长但节奏平缓。短期来看，产业链将在"政策导致的供应紧张预期"与"现实的高库存及结构性需求矛 盾"之间激烈博弈，镍价走势料将震荡偏强但空间受限。中长期而言，这一变局将迫使全行业向技术升 级、产品高端化与绿色低碳方向加速转型。 短期镍价走势展望 综上 ...

12月17日，资本圈年度盛会——2025证券时报分析师年会暨最佳分析师颁奖典礼在苏州盛大开幕。 在本届年会主论坛上，与会嘉宾紧扣"提升金融服务质效，支持实体经济发展"的核心方向展开智慧碰 撞，现场金句频出，精彩纷呈。随后的专场论坛则奉上了不容错过的投研盛宴，新鲜出炉的2025中国证 券研究最强阵容首次集体亮相，深度聚焦热门赛道，直击投资热点。 最佳分析师阵容揭晓 在年会上，备受市场瞩目的2025年度最佳分析师获奖名单重磅揭晓。在现场热烈的掌声和欢呼声中，新 一届中国证券研究领域最强阵容诞生。 作为本次活动中极具含金量的团队奖项，最佳研究团队SSR（Superior Super Research）的归属一直让人 翘首以待。最终，长江证券、广发证券、兴业证券、申万宏源证券（000562）、国泰海通证券、国盛证 券（002670）、东吴证券、华创证券、浙商证券（601878）、中信建投（601066）证券等强势登榜，以 硬核实力彰显行业头部的影响力。 在广受重视的宏观经济研究领域，广发证券郭磊研究小组斩获第一名，华创证券张瑜研究小组、浙商证 券李超研究小组、东吴证券芦哲研究小组、长江证券于博研究小组分获第二至第五名 ...

宏观经济深度研究 格物致知，成势在人 ——投资于物和投资于人的时代逻辑 在 " 十五五 " 规划深入推进与中国式现代化步入纵深发展的进程中，投资于物与 投资于人正走向相互协同、相互嵌合的发展结构，成为理解当代发展范式的重 要切口。面对加速演进的全球宏观格局，回归对 " 物 " 的深入观察，是穿透表层 波动、把握经济结构性转向的关键路径。格物致知，正是通过对世界运行逻辑 的系统和动态拆解，识别全球化格局重构、产业链重塑、价值链跃迁、自然资 源约束强化与科技生产力跃升等具有方向性、结构性与长期性的变化，从而推 动资本配置与产业布局向顺应时代演进的方向迁移。而成势在人，则是对需求 结构深层转型的理性回应。随着物质条件改善与外部不确定性上升并存，人们 的需求日益呈现出内敛化、求质化、多元化、个性化与开放化趋势，价值寻求 也从对外求证走向自我肯定，从规模扩张转向价值认同，更注重对安全感、品 质感与自我认同感的系统构建。物与人平衡的过程，既是投资逻辑从追求效率 转向系统协同的重要表现，也是中国式现代化的具象展开。供给与需求的协 同、数量与质量的权衡、天道与人性的融合、个体与整体的协调，以及物质与 精神的共振，这与中国式现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The city of Rizhao is undergoing a profound transformation driven by technological innovation and the extension of industrial chains, moving from traditional industries to new, high-tech sectors. Group 1: Technological Empowerment - The Shandong Port Rizhao Port has launched the world's first fully automated container terminal, achieving complete automation in loading, horizontal transportation, and yard operations, enhancing single-machine efficiency by 50% and reducing overall costs by 70% [3][4]. - The port has developed a digital twin platform for grain unloading, with an annual grain import capacity exceeding 10 million tons, contributing to national food security [3][4]. Group 2: Industrial Chain Restructuring - Rizhao's strategic location near major steel companies and automotive manufacturers allows for efficient raw material acquisition and reduced logistics costs, fostering a competitive environment for local suppliers [7][8]. - Companies like Shandong Ruihang Technology Co., Ltd. and Shandong Temur Automotive Parts Co., Ltd. benefit from the "front port and back factory" model, enhancing their production capabilities and reducing logistics expenses [7][8]. Group 3: Green Upgrading - Rizhao Huatai Paper Industry Co., Ltd. is transitioning from traditional high-pollution practices to producing high-value specialty paper products, with a focus on environmentally friendly alternatives like paper tape [11]. - The paper industry in Rizhao has seen a 6.3% increase in value added, with the integrated pulp and paper industry cluster recognized as one of Shandong's top ten industries [11]. Group 4: Economic Growth - In the first three quarters of the year, Rizhao's industrial added value increased by 8.0%, with the steel industry growing by 5.9%, indicating robust economic resilience [9].

Core Insights - The report highlights the complexity of the external economic landscape in 2026, focusing on three main issues: persistent geopolitical conflicts, political conservatism in major economies leading to trade frictions, and the complexities of monetary policy [3][4]. Geopolitical Conflicts - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine situation, present structural pressures that may lead to increased volatility in the global economy [3]. - Key geopolitical risk points include the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and the Korean Peninsula, which contribute to a non-linear economic outlook [3]. Political Conservatism and Trade Frictions - The rise of conservative governments in major economies like the U.S. and Japan is shifting policies towards economic security and nationalism, resulting in ongoing trade policy uncertainties [3][4]. - The restructuring of global supply chains is deepening, moving towards a "China + N" model, which may impact trade dynamics significantly [3]. Monetary Policy Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with two additional cuts anticipated in 2025 and 1-2 cuts in 2026, which may lower financing costs but also face constraints from structural inflation driven by geopolitical and trade issues [3][4]. Global Economic Growth Outlook - The global economic growth rate is projected to remain around 3%, with emerging markets being the primary growth drivers due to "de-risking" and "friend-shoring" investments [4]. - Developed economies are expected to experience moderate growth, with the U.S. economy supported by interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus, while Japan and the EU maintain stable growth [4]. Impact on China - Specific external variables, particularly U.S. policies, are expected to impact China's trade and technology sectors, with tariffs likely to remain at a normalized level of around 30% [4][5]. - China's exports may face disruptions from both U.S. and non-U.S. markets, with potential impacts on overall export scale estimated at 3.0% under moderate scenarios and up to 10.6% in extreme cases [5]. Opportunities and Challenges for China - External pressures may accelerate China's progress towards technological self-sufficiency and high-end manufacturing [5]. - However, challenges include normalized tariffs, increased trade barriers, and the risk of de-Chinaization in global supply chains, alongside the pressures of technological restrictions [5].

Core Viewpoint - China's recent announcement on October 9 regarding export controls on specific rare earth materials has significant implications for the global high-tech industry, indicating a tightening grip on the supply chain and potential disruptions for countries reliant on these materials [1][5][18] Summary by Sections Export Control Measures - Organizations or individuals wishing to export specific rare earth items from China must obtain a dual-use export license from the Ministry of Commerce, indicating a stringent regulatory environment [1] - The announcement specifies that exports related to the research and production of logic chips at 14nm or below, and storage chips with over 256 layers, will require case-by-case approval, effectively tightening access to critical technology [3][10] Global Dependency on Chinese Rare Earths - China controls approximately 91% of global rare earth processing capacity, highlighting the country's dominance in this sector and the vulnerability of dependent nations [5] - The EU imports 98% of its rare earths from China, with Germany's imports related to rare earth metals nearing €70 billion annually, indicating a precarious reliance on Chinese supplies [6] U.S. Concerns and Strategic Responses - The U.S. relies on imports for over 80% of its rare earth needs, with 70% sourced from China, and defense applications account for 35% of U.S. rare earth consumption, raising national security concerns [8] - The Pentagon has prioritized investments in advanced materials and microelectronics, reflecting a strategic shift to address vulnerabilities in the supply chain [14] Industry Reactions and Supply Chain Implications - Companies are urgently seeking alternative materials, but the transition is complex and costly, with potential disruptions to supply chains and increased costs [12] - The tightening of export controls is expected to lead to price increases, order delays, and a loss of confidence in the supply chain, with long-term implications for global manufacturing [16] Geopolitical and Economic Repercussions - The announcement serves as a lever for China to assert its national security and industrial sovereignty while influencing global discourse on rare earths [14] - The potential for a "de-China" strategy exists, but it is a long and expensive process that will reshape geopolitical and economic landscapes over time [18][19]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant increase in China's investment in green technology and energy, totaling nearly $250 billion over the past three years, which has raised concerns in the U.S. and Europe about strategic resource control [1][2][10] Investment and Economic Impact - China's investment in green technology has been substantial, with approximately $250 billion (around 1.7 trillion RMB) allocated to various projects in Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America [1] - A new photovoltaic and battery production support plan targeting Belt and Road countries was quietly announced in early 2025, detailing production capacity, financing models, and local employment commitments [2] - The investments are not just financial; they also involve local infrastructure development and job creation, which are crucial for the communities involved [5][7] Geopolitical Reactions - The U.S. has expressed concerns about China's expanding influence in the battery and photovoltaic supply chains, indicating that this could pose a substantial challenge to Western control over strategic resources in the next decade [2][10] - European responses have shifted from verbal warnings to concrete policy proposals aimed at increasing scrutiny on key environmental technologies, effectively creating barriers to Chinese investments [7][11] Strategic Comparisons - The article draws parallels between China's current investment strategy and the historical Marshall Plan, noting that while both aim for economic integration, China's approach is more focused on market and technology-driven initiatives rather than political subjugation [8] - The emphasis on creating a mutually beneficial production-consumption system is a key differentiator in China's strategy compared to past geopolitical maneuvers [8] Industry Dynamics - The competition in the green technology sector is intensifying, with both the U.S. and Europe adjusting their policies to counter China's influence, which may lead to increased project costs and supply chain fragmentation [11] - The importance of technology in this global competition is underscored, as advancements in battery materials and photovoltaic efficiency are critical for maintaining competitive advantage [10][11] Future Outlook - The article suggests that the $250 billion investment may be a pivotal moment, with the future trajectory depending on how effectively the industry can integrate technology, market dynamics, and capital [13] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the need for stable political environments in investment regions are highlighted as significant factors that could influence the success of these initiatives [10][13]

Group 1 - The core message of the article revolves around the escalating tensions between the U.S. and China regarding rare earth magnets, with President Trump threatening a 200% tariff on Chinese imports if they do not supply these critical materials [1][5] - The U.S. heavily relies on China for rare earth magnets, with over 70% of its imports coming from China in 2024, highlighting the challenges the U.S. faces in achieving self-sufficiency in this sector [3][5] - China's dominance in the rare earth supply chain, controlling over 60% of global production and 85% of processing, poses a significant concern for the U.S. as it seeks to reduce dependency [1][3] Group 2 - The ongoing trade negotiations are complicated by the U.S. domestic situation, where farmers are struggling with unsold soybeans while retailers face shortages, illustrating the broader economic impact of tariffs [5][13] - The U.S. has invested over $400 million in efforts to develop its own rare earth supply chains, but progress has been slow, with no stable production from domestic sources like the Mountain Pass mine [3][5] - The article emphasizes that the U.S.-China economic relationship is fundamentally interdependent, with both countries needing each other's markets and supply chains, despite the current tensions [11][13]

Group 1: Market Overview - The financial market is experiencing tension with a divergence in major indices, as the Dow Jones fluctuates, the Nasdaq shows volatility, and the S&P 500 exhibits mixed movements, indicating underlying contradictions in market sentiment [1][3] - A recent survey by Bank of America reveals that 91% of fund managers believe U.S. stock valuations are too high, while 49% are optimistic about emerging market stocks, suggesting a significant divide in investor sentiment [3] - The precious metals market has seen significant volatility, with gold prices dropping to $3,348.34 per ounce, a decline of 1.27%, amidst rumors of a potential 39% tariff on gold, which were later clarified as misinformation [6][9] Group 2: Sector Performance - Lithium battery stocks surged over 6%, with Tesla's stock reaching a high of $343.72, driven by a "buy" rating from Morgan Stanley and the announcement of Grok 4 being offered globally for free [3] - In contrast, Apple’s stock fell by 1%, despite the company’s substantial investment of $600 billion in U.S. manufacturing, reflecting a strategic shift in the tech giant's operations [7][10] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index opened high but fell by 0.17%, with mixed performance among popular Chinese stocks, indicating a fragmented market sentiment [9][12] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Context - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine are contributing to a sense of instability in European markets, with major indices showing mixed results, such as the UK FTSE rising by 0.37% while the German DAX and French CAC indices fell [4] - The announcement of federal control over the Washington D.C. police and the deployment of the National Guard highlights the increasing tension between federal and local authorities, reflecting deeper societal issues and political dynamics [9][10] - The complex interplay of policy, market, and social pressures in the U.S. is creating a challenging environment for investment decisions, with investors remaining cautious amid the uncertainty [10]