证券研究报告·有色金属年度策略·工业金属 2）全球精炼铜需求2024年中国占比58%，美国占比6% 。2016-2024年，全球精炼铜消费量呈现稳健上升态势，CAGR为2%，2024年中国/美国消费精炼铜 1557/162万吨，yoy+1.3%/+0.5%，贡献全球总消费量58%/6%。2025年1-8月需求量增量主要贡献国家为中国、日本、德国等，墨西哥、芬兰需求量有所减 少。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心观点 1）2025年1-8月全球供需持续维持紧平衡态势，铜价整体高位运行或抑制需求。供需角度，根据ICSG数据来看，2025年1-8月精铜持续维持紧平衡态势，除 了需求淡季外，上半年铜价高位、矿端扰动增强推动冶炼加速生产，精铜供给较为饱满，2025年1-8月月均供给过剩0.8万吨。 2025年铜价高位运行，1-11月 铜价均价为9704美元/吨，yoy+6%。 我们判断2025年上游矿端供给短缺主要在矿端扰动、现货冶炼端加工费过低体现，并非下游需求真实产生显著短缺缺口，情绪角度反应高于基本面角度，2026 年铜价走势我们预计仍需重点关注上游矿山情况。 3）2025年中国需求稳健增长，分品类来看，精 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the price range likely between 85,000 yuan/ton and 89,000 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can arrange buy or sell hedging based on this range. Arbitrage is on hold, and the option strategy is short put [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Futures Market**: On November 12, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 86,590 yuan/ton and closed at 86,840 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 87,100 yuan/ton and closed at 87,410 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Market**: On the previous day, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 86,630 - 86,960 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium of 55 yuan/ton to the current - month contract average price, unchanged from the previous day. The cross - month spread was in a Contango structure, and the import loss was about 800 yuan/ton. The procurement and sales sentiment in Shanghai improved slightly [2]. Important Information Summary - **US Politics**: The US House of Representatives will vote on a temporary appropriation bill on Wednesday evening. The 43 - day federal government shutdown crisis may end. The White House press secretary said the shutdown may reduce Q4 economic growth by two percentage points [3]. - **Federal Reserve**: White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said he would accept the nomination to replace Powell as Fed Chairman if nominated. He hopes for a larger - scale interest rate cut in the December policy meeting [3]. Mining End Japanese JX Advanced Metals, its partners, and Mitsubishi Materials plan to integrate Mitsubishi's copper concentrate procurement and copper product sales business into Pan Pacific Copper (PPC). The integration aims to reduce costs and streamline sales operations [4]. Smelting and Import JX, one of Japan's largest copper smelters with an annual capacity of 450,000 tons, may cut copper production by tens of thousands of tons in the 2025 fiscal year. Mitsubishi also warned of reducing copper concentrate processing scale. Japan, Spain, and South Korea expressed concerns about the sharp decline in copper concentrate processing and refining fees (TC/RC) [5]. Consumption A survey of 59 domestic copper strip producers (covering 94.03% of the 3.58 million - ton capacity) showed that the domestic copper strip production in October 2025 was 189,100 tons, a 3.62% month - on - month decrease. The expected production in November is 194,600 tons, a 2.91% month - on - month increase [5]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts LME warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons to 136,250 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,124 tons to 44,088 tons. On November 10, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.959 million tons, a decrease of 74,000 tons from the previous week [6]. Price and Basis Data The report provides data on copper prices, spot premiums, inventory, warehouse receipts, and other indicators from different time points (today, yesterday, last week, and one month ago) [23][24][25].

LME铜 10727.5 10903.0 10727.5 10874.5 1.68% 【铜市场消息速递】 北京时间11月11日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货价格高位震荡，今日开盘报10851美元/吨，现报10813 美元/吨，涨幅0.16%，盘中最高触及10863.5美元/吨，最低下探10812美元/吨。 更新时间： LME铜期货行情回顾： 11月10日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 11月10日，电解铜现货沪伦比值为8.02，进口盈亏：-585.37元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：-495.82元/ 吨。 2025年10月铜板带企业整体开工率为64.97%，环比下降1.05个百分点，同期大降7.76个百分点。其中， 大型企业开工率为71.14%，中型企业开工率为57.72%，小型企业开工率为55.9%。 11月10日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铜注册仓单124550吨，注销仓单11725吨，增加450吨。铜库存 136275吨，增加375吨。 ...

| 主要产品 | 单位 | 生产量 | 销售量 | 库存量 | 生产量 | 销售量 | 库存量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 比上年 | 比上年 | 比上年 | | | | | | | 同期增 | 同期增 | 同期增 | | | | | | | 减（%） | 减（%） | 减（%） | | 铜板带 | 吨 | 100,612.63 | 100,710.18 | 2,712.13 | 10.74 | 10.39 | 23.92 | | 铜箔 | 吨 | 2,760.70 | 2,778.49 | 28.50 | 9.53 | 9.04 | 65.42 | | 铝箔 | 吨 | 8,628.46 | 8,826.65 | 239.03 | 73.53 | 90.54 | -29.68 | | 其他业务（涂 料） | 吨 | 1,986.04 | 1,856.73 | 230.33 | 79.88 | 73.00 | 152.08 | | 其他业务（电 池托盘、模组 | 套 （件 | 72,152.00 | 72,75 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - China-US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th, and the market risk preference has increased [11] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held from October 20th to 23rd, passing the "Proposal on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development", which injected confidence into the market [14] - As of the week of October 17th, the standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.7 dollars/ton dry, down 0.13 dollars/ton dry from last week, and the copper concentrate processing fee continued to be under pressure [23] - The trading strategy is to wait for the opportunity to buy on dips when Shanghai copper is in a strong state but may face pressure at the 88,000 integer mark [5] Group 2: Bull - Bear Focus Bullish Factors - Spot processing fees remain low, and the tightness at the mine end still exists; social inventory has a small decline [8] - Domestic and foreign macro - sentiments have warmed up; China - US economic and trade consultations have started, and the market risk preference has increased [8][9] Bearish Factors - Downstream feedback shows weak consumption performance [8] Group 3: Data Analysis Copper Ore and Concentrate Imports - In September, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.5869 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.43%. The supply from Chile dropped by more than 30% [20] Copper Concentrate TC - As of October 17th, the copper concentrate TC continued to be at a low level, and the long - term negotiation has entered the initial stage with large differences [23] Electrolytic Copper Production - In September, the domestic electrolytic copper output was 1.1498 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. In October, the output is expected to continue to decline due to peak - season maintenance and other factors [25] Scrap Copper Imports - In September, China's scrap copper imports were 184,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.8%, mainly due to policy adjustments and market demand [29] Copper Plate and Strip Production - In September, the domestic copper plate and strip production was 196,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35%, ending four consecutive months of decline but still lower than the same period last year [33] Copper Rod Production - In September, the domestic refined copper rod production was 849,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18%, and the recycled copper rod production was 170,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04% [37] Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference - As of October 23rd, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around 230 yuan/ton, which is conducive to refined copper consumption [41] Copper Inventory - As of October 23rd, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 189,800 tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons from the 20th. LME copper inventory decreased, while SHFE copper inventory increased [54] Copper Spot Premium - On October 23rd, the Shanghai Wumaohui 1 copper spot premium turned to a discount, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount narrowed [58] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Real Estate Market - From January to September, real estate development investment, new construction area, and sales volume all declined year - on - year. In September, the housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline, and the real estate market is still weak [45][47] New Energy Vehicle Industry - In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6%, showing a strong development momentum [50] Group 5: Market Outlook - Shanghai copper has returned to a strong state, but there may be pressure at the 88,000 integer mark. Wait for the opportunity to buy on dips and pay attention to the results of China - US consultations [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is "Shock" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term fundamentals provide a basis for speculation on the supply side, but the consumer side does not support continuous price increases. The overall trend will show pulse - like increases, which may not be long - lasting [2] - The market's trading logic has shifted to macro trading. With the re - rise of inflation expectations and the unexpected decline of employment expectations, the Fed's interest rate cut is favorable for the non - ferrous metals sector [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Macro and Industry News - In September 2025, the domestic copper rod output was 99,960 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,100 tons or 2.09%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate in September was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%. Among them, enterprises with an annual capacity of over 50,000 tons had a capacity utilization rate of 61.94%, a month - on - month increase of 2.19%, while those with an annual capacity of less than 50,000 tons had a capacity utilization rate of 37.57%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34%. The copper rod market in September was only slightly better than in August [1] Market Conditions - The main contract of Shanghai copper in the night session closed at 86,520 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.02%. The trading volume was 85,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1,362 lots to 200,500 lots. Technically, the market continued to recover losses, showing a typical bullish arrangement [1] Supply - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate in smelters has basically remained flat after a sudden decline, and the smelters' losses have expanded. It is necessary to determine whether it is the increase in smelting output or the tightening of the ore end. The 8 - month output data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that domestic smelting has increased significantly, falsifying the previous view that the decline in processing fees was due to ore shortage [2] Demand - Among the primary consumption sectors, only the output of copper rods remains at a historically high level, while the outputs of copper tubes, cables, copper strips, etc. are all declining [2] Inventory and Structure - The total inventory of the three major exchanges has increased. The inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME have changed from rapid accumulation to slight depletion, while the Comex inventory has continued to accumulate rapidly, indicating the weakness of the demand side [2] Strategy Suggestion - Existing long positions should be held, and it is not advisable to open new positions for the time being [2]

Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant price increases, particularly in copper and gold, leading to stock price surges for major companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Jiangxi Copper [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - Tongling Nonferrous Metals reported a 20% cumulative deviation in stock price over three trading days, indicating abnormal trading activity, but confirmed that there are no significant changes in its operational environment [1] - Jiangxi Copper also noted a 20% cumulative deviation in stock price, with its production activities remaining normal [2] - In the first half of the year, Tongling Nonferrous Metals achieved a revenue of 76.08 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.441 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The prices of key products, including cathode copper and gold, have seen substantial increases recently, contributing to the stock price movements of the companies [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, Jiangxi Copper's net profit reached 4.175 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 15.42% [3] - International gold prices have recently surpassed 4,000 USD per ounce, driven by factors such as U.S. government shutdown concerns, expectations of interest rate cuts, and ongoing global central bank gold purchases [3]

Core Viewpoint - Company resumes interim cash dividend distribution after 9 years, proposing a cash dividend of 670 million yuan, accounting for 46.5% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 76.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.39%, marking a record high for the period; net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.441 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.94% [2][7]. - The company has cumulatively achieved a net profit of 25.392 billion yuan since its listing [8]. Dividend and Share Buyback - The proposed cash dividend of 670 million yuan is part of a broader shareholder return strategy, which includes a total of 8 billion yuan spent on dividends and share buybacks since listing [3][6]. - The company has set a target to distribute at least 50% of its distributable profits in cash over the next three years, contingent on meeting cash dividend conditions [4]. Market Performance - The company's stock price has increased approximately 65% year-to-date, closing at 5.16 yuan per share on September 29, 2025, up from 3.13 yuan at the beginning of the year [2][9]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The company has expanded its production capacity, with the Mirador copper mine's second phase expected to reach full production by 2026, adding 140,000 tons of copper concentrate capacity per year [8][9]. - As of mid-2025, the company has an annual cathode copper production capacity exceeding 1.7 million tons and an annual production capacity of 80,000 tons for high-precision electronic copper foil [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, copper prices may maintain high - level oscillations. Supply - side contradictions, such as the shutdown of Indonesian mines and domestic smelter overhauls, support prices, but the increase in scrap copper imports restricts the upward space. On the demand side, overseas demand for high - value - added copper products is strong, but domestic consumption is suppressed by high copper prices. Dollar fluctuations and low inventory levels support copper prices, but the pre - holiday capital risk - aversion tendency may limit the fluctuation range. It is expected that copper prices may maintain high - level oscillations in the next one to two weeks, ranging from 79,000 to 81,000 yuan/ton [6][38] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On September 22, the price of the SHFE copper main contract closed at 80,160 yuan/ton, fluctuating at a high level. The premium of premium copper decreased slightly from 115 yuan/ton to 105 yuan/ton, and the premium of flat - water copper decreased from 30 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton. However, the LME 0 - 3 month discount narrowed from - 71.09 US dollars/ton to - 64.9 US dollars/ton, and the near - month supply pressure was slightly relieved [1] - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper inventory continued the destocking trend, dropping to 29,893 tons on September 22, a decrease of 6.11% compared to September 16. The SHFE inventory also decreased by 1.54% to 145,375 tons. In terms of positions, the LME copper position decreased slightly by 504 lots to 289,843 lots on September 19, and the intensity of the long - short game in the market has not significantly increased [2] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **供给端**: There are frequent short - term disturbances. The shutdown of the Indonesian Grasberg mine due to an accident intensifies the expectation of supply shortage. Coupled with the overhaul of smelters in North China, the output of electrolytic copper has decreased. However, the import volume of scrap copper in Africa has increased sharply year - on - year, partially offsetting the supply gap of refined copper. Nevertheless, the year - on - year decline of anode copper imports by 18.72% reflects that there are still hidden concerns in the supply of refined copper raw materials [3] - **需求端**: There is a structural differentiation in external demand. The export of brass bars has decreased by 22.87% year - on - year, but the export of high - value - added products such as copper strips and enameled wires has performed strongly, with significant growth in markets such as South Korea and India. In North China, the recovery of copper prices has suppressed downstream restocking, and pre - holiday stocking has not started yet, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [4] - **库存端**: Global visible inventories continue to decline, and both LME and SHFE inventories are in the low - level range of the year. The substitution effect of recycled copper supply is enhanced, but the diversification of scrap copper import sources has alleviated the risk of raw material shortage to a certain extent [5] c. Market Summary - In the short term, copper prices may maintain high - level oscillations. Supply - side contradictions support prices, but the increase in scrap copper imports restricts the upward space. On the demand side, overseas high - value - added copper product demand is strong, but domestic consumption is suppressed by high copper prices. Dollar fluctuations and low inventory levels provide support for copper prices, but the pre - holiday capital risk - aversion tendency may limit the fluctuation range [6] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The SMM:1 copper price on September 22 was 80,310 yuan/ton, a 0.25% increase compared to September 19. The premium of premium copper decreased by 8.70% to 105 yuan/ton, the premium of flat - water copper decreased by 16.67% to 25 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - process copper decreased by 16.67% to - 35 yuan/ton. The SHFE copper price increased by 0.34% to 80,160 yuan/ton. The LME copper inventory decreased by 6.11% to 29,893 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 1.54% to 145,375 tons [8] 3. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts, such as China's PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions analysis, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [9][13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Anhui Zhongyuan New Materials Co., Ltd., reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by its dual strategy in new materials and new energy sectors [14][15]. Company Overview - The company is engaged in the production of new materials and new energy products, with a focus on copper products and battery components [16]. - As of June 30, 2025, the total assets amounted to 4.624 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.76% [15]. Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating income of 4.804 billion yuan, representing an 18.65% year-on-year growth [14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 95 million yuan, up 46.18% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was -12 million yuan, a decrease of 123.25% [14]. Business Segments New Materials - The company produced 62,400 tons of copper strip and 1,756.24 tons of copper foil during the reporting period [17]. - The annual production capacity for high-precision copper alloy strip and copper strip blank is expected to reach 200,000 tons after project completion [17]. New Energy - The company’s subsidiaries are involved in the production of battery pack casings and structural components, with an annual capacity of 500,000 sets [19]. - The aluminum foil business produced 6,984.57 tons, with specific production for battery foil at 379.52 tons [20]. Shareholder Returns - In June 2025, the company distributed a cash dividend of 0.16 yuan per share, totaling approximately 50.72 million yuan, which is 39.84% of the net profit for 2024 [23]. Innovation and R&D - The company holds numerous patents, including 23 invention patents and 80 utility model patents in the new materials sector [24]. Governance and Compliance - The company emphasizes compliance with regulatory requirements and has made revisions to its governance structure to enhance operational efficiency [26][27].