Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen significant price increases this year, with silver prices surpassing $50 per ounce for the first time on October 9, marking a year-to-date increase of over 70%, outpacing gold [1][9] - The surge in silver prices has led to increased demand for silver bars, with reports of long wait times for delivery from certain platforms [1][5] Market Conditions - The Shenzhen Shui Bei market, a major trading hub for jewelry, has seen a rise in customer inquiries for silver bars, although the overall activity is less intense compared to the gold market [3][4] - Silver bars are available at prices ranging from 12.82 to 13.82 yuan per gram, which is higher than the real-time silver price due to additional costs associated with trading [4][5] - There is a notable scarcity of available silver bars, with some stores requiring customers to pre-order and wait approximately one month for delivery [5][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The World Silver Association reports that global silver supply has consistently fallen short of demand from 2021 to 2024, with a projected shortfall of 3,659 tons in 2025 [6][9] - The current market conditions have led to a lack of available silver bars on certain online platforms, with all products sold out as of October 18 [7][8] Price Drivers - The recent price increases in precious metals are attributed to several factors, including heightened global economic and geopolitical risks, changes in the dollar and interest rate environment, and increased central bank purchases of gold [9][10] - The demand for silver has been particularly strong due to its industrial applications and the recent surge in physical delivery requirements, which has led to a tight supply situation [10][11] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the current bullish trend in precious metals may continue, potential risks such as declining global inflation, a strengthening dollar, or reduced geopolitical tensions could lead to a correction in prices [11] - The ongoing trend of "de-dollarization" and central bank gold purchases are expected to enhance the strategic value of gold, while silver's role in the green economy may provide long-term growth potential [11]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has seen a strong performance this year, with gold prices reaching historical highs and silver, often referred to as "poor man's gold," also experiencing significant price increases. Silver prices have surged over 70% this year, outperforming gold [1]. Market Demand and Supply - On October 9, the spot silver price surpassed $50 per ounce for the first time in history, leading to a surge in the silver bar investment market [1]. - In the Shenzhen Shui Bei market, which is the largest jewelry trading market in China, there is a high demand for silver bars, but the overall activity is not as vibrant as the gold market [3]. - A silver store representative indicated that the store has been in operation for over 20 years and offers various investment silver bars, with prices ranging from 12.82 to 13.82 yuan per gram, which is higher than the real-time silver price due to membership and handling fees associated with purchasing from the Shanghai Gold Exchange [5][8]. - The global silver supply has consistently fallen short of demand from 2021 to 2024, with a projected shortfall of 3,659 tons in 2025 [10]. Online and Offline Market Dynamics - Some online platforms are experiencing significant shortages of silver bars, with reports of items being out of stock [12][17]. - In contrast, other e-commerce platforms have sufficient inventory and can ship orders the next day [17]. - The demand for silver bars has led to long waiting times for delivery, with some customers needing to wait about a month for their orders [8][10]. Price Drivers and Market Trends - The recent surge in precious metal prices is attributed to several factors, including increased global economic and geopolitical risks, changes in the dollar and interest rate environment, and a strong demand for physical silver due to its industrial applications [21][22]. - The current market conditions have led to a significant increase in the prices of both gold and silver, with the cumulative increase for precious metals exceeding 40% this year [23]. - Analysts suggest that while the long-term outlook for silver remains positive due to its role in the green economy, short-term price corrections may occur if global inflation decreases or geopolitical risks subside [23].