来源：热点雷达 日本重稀土（如镝、铽）对华依存度接近100%，主要用于军工（导弹制导、战机引擎）、新能源汽车 电机等核心领域。中方管制直接导致日本库存告急（仅能维持3-6周），若持续一年，日本GDP将萎缩 0.43%，经济损失达2.6万亿日元。日企如丰田、三菱重工已因原料断供被迫减产，半导体生产线面临停 工风险。 产业链连锁反应剧烈 一、日本经济与产业遭多重打击 稀土依赖成为致命软肋 军工领域：日本"藏军于民"模式遭重创。高端武器所需的耐热合金、碳纤维等材料被纳入管制清单，F- 15J战机升级项目停滞，高超音速导弹研发推迟。 民用产业：汽车、电子等行业供应链断裂。电动车电机所需的钕铁硼磁材90%依赖中国，断供后车企产 能暴跌20%以上；半导体用高纯镓、锗断供引发封测企业违约潮。 二、日本反制能力薄弱，暴露战略缺陷 替代方案短期难成 中国对日本实施的军民两用物项出口管制，确实精准打击了日本在稀土、半导体材料等关键领域的产业 命脉，导致其经济与军工发展面临实质性冲击。 经济界强烈不满高市早苗涉台言论引发危机，在野党拟推动内阁不信任案。民众恐慌情绪蔓延，日经指 数单日暴跌556点，社交媒体涌现"要求高市辞职"呼声。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Australia’s Lynas Corporation has successfully separated heavy rare earth elements at its processing plant in Malaysia, marking Japan's first import of heavy rare earths from a country outside China, which dominates the global market with nearly 100% share [2][5]. Group 1: Company Operations - Lynas extracts rare earths from its Mount Weld mine in Western Australia, processes them in Malaysia into dysprosium and terbium, and then ships them to Japan [4]. - The Japanese trading company Sojitz has imported heavy rare earths produced by Lynas for the first time, which are essential for electric vehicle (EV) and wind turbine motor production [2][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - China accounts for 70% of global rare earth production and nearly 100% of heavy rare earths, making the establishment of a non-China dependent supply chain critical [5]. - In response to China's export controls on dysprosium and terbium, which were implemented as a retaliatory measure against U.S. tariffs, companies like Suzuki and Ford have had to pause production due to supply shortages [5]. Group 3: Future Demand and Agreements - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global demand for rare earths will expand to 3.4 times the 2020 levels by 2040, driven by decarbonization trends [5]. - A framework for stable rare earth procurement was agreed upon during the Japan-U.S. summit on October 28, highlighting the urgency of securing alternative supply sources [5].

Group 1 - The U.S. is focusing on Myanmar's rare earths to bypass China's dominance, but experts question the feasibility of this strategy [1][2] - The U.S. aims to cut off China's rare earth imports from Myanmar while seeking new mining sources, driven by China's upcoming export controls on heavy rare earths [2][5] - The U.S. faces three significant barriers: geographical and security risks, a lack of refining technology, and gaps in the entire supply chain from mining to manufacturing [3][4] Group 2 - China's rare earth industry has established a comprehensive technological and industrial system over two decades, making it difficult for the U.S. to replicate [4][8] - The U.S. previously outsourced its rare earth processing to China, leading to a loss of competitive advantage [4] - The U.S. strategy appears to be more about signaling to allies and reducing dependence on China rather than genuinely disrupting China's rare earth advantage [8]