Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of the US-China trade war, highlighting a shift in perception where China is seen as adapting and thriving despite US pressure, ultimately reshaping the global economic landscape [2][20]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Starting in early 2025, the Trump administration escalated tariffs on China, with rates increasing from 10% to 125% by April 12, 2025, aiming to force concessions from China [4]. - China strategically targeted US vulnerabilities by imposing export controls on rare earth elements and agricultural products, significantly impacting US industries [4][6]. - The share of US soybean exports to China plummeted from 21% in 2024 to nearly 0%, leading to significant financial losses in the US agricultural sector and a $4 trillion drop in US stock market value [6]. Group 2: China's Economic Resilience - Despite reduced exports to the US, China's overall export growth continued, with exports to Belt and Road Initiative countries rising to 47.8% in the first half of 2025, showcasing market diversification [6][8]. - China's industrial structure remained robust, with many companies accelerating efforts to explore new markets in response to US tariffs [8]. Group 3: Negotiation Outcomes - Multiple rounds of negotiations throughout 2025 led to significant tariff reductions, including a 91% agreement on tariff cancellations and the withdrawal of punitive tariffs related to fentanyl [9][11]. - The shift in Western media perspectives, particularly from The Economist, reflects a broader recognition of the negative impacts of US tariffs on its own economy, including a 25% increase in grocery prices over four years [11]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The trade war has evolved into a contest of development models and institutional resilience, with the US relying on short-term financial capital and China leveraging deep industrial chains and stable policies [15][16]. - The relationship between the US and China has transformed from trade being a stabilizing factor to becoming a battleground for strategic competition, with diminishing trust and cooperation [18]. Group 5: Global Economic Impact - The trade conflict is reshaping global supply chains and altering perceptions of economic stability, with China transitioning from a reactive to a proactive role in the global economic arena [20].

Core Viewpoint - The statements made by U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent regarding China's rare earth export controls have sparked a debate about the reality of these measures, with China emphasizing its actions as a refinement of its export control system [1][3]. Group 1: China's Rare Earth Export Controls - China's export control measures for rare earth elements were officially announced, with significant restrictions on seven categories of medium and heavy rare earth items effective from April 5, 2025 [3]. - Recent announcements on October 9 included controls on foreign-manufactured magnets and materials containing 0.1% or more of Chinese rare earth elements, along with restrictions on rare earth mining and smelting technologies [3]. - As a result of these measures, China's rare earth exports fell to 4,000.3 tons in September 2025, a decrease of 30.9% month-over-month, marking the lowest level since February of the same year [3]. Group 2: U.S. Dependency on Chinese Rare Earths - The U.S. Geological Survey reported that 70% of U.S. rare earth material imports come from China, with nearly 100% of heavy rare earths essential for military applications sourced from China [5]. - The U.S. military relies on rare earths for 87% of its supply chains across 153 main battle equipment types, highlighting the critical nature of these materials [5][7]. - The complexity and pollution associated with rare earth purification processes have led to a significant reliance on China, which controls 85% of global refining capacity, making U.S. efforts to decouple from this dependency challenging and costly [7]. Group 3: Political Dynamics and Strategic Decisions - China's export controls aim to prevent rare earths from being used for military purposes, contrasting with the U.S. as the largest global arms exporter that frequently utilizes rare earths in military production [9]. - The U.S. has attempted to politicize the rare earth issue, but this strategy has revealed its limitations, as China controls 70% of rare earth production and 92% of refining capacity globally [9]. - Prior to implementing these measures, China communicated its policy objectives to the U.S., EU, and Japan to reduce misunderstandings, while also promising to streamline compliance processes for civilian exports [11].

Group 1 - The U.S. is focusing on Myanmar's rare earths to bypass China's dominance, but experts question the feasibility of this strategy [1][2] - The U.S. aims to cut off China's rare earth imports from Myanmar while seeking new mining sources, driven by China's upcoming export controls on heavy rare earths [2][5] - The U.S. faces three significant barriers: geographical and security risks, a lack of refining technology, and gaps in the entire supply chain from mining to manufacturing [3][4] Group 2 - China's rare earth industry has established a comprehensive technological and industrial system over two decades, making it difficult for the U.S. to replicate [4][8] - The U.S. previously outsourced its rare earth processing to China, leading to a loss of competitive advantage [4] - The U.S. strategy appears to be more about signaling to allies and reducing dependence on China rather than genuinely disrupting China's rare earth advantage [8]

Group 1 - The core of national strategic security relies on control over key resources, with rare earth elements being a significant factor in the ongoing resource competition [1] - The U.S. military-industrial complex is heavily dependent on rare earth elements like samarium, praseodymium, and neodymium, which are crucial for advanced technologies [1] - During Trump's administration, the imposition of tariffs and technology restrictions on China led to a dramatic 60-fold increase in rare earth prices, creating procurement challenges for U.S. defense companies [1] Group 2 - Despite having rich rare earth mineral deposits, the U.S. lacks a complete processing industry due to decades of outsourcing, making it difficult to establish a domestic supply chain [3] - The Pentagon plans to invest in domestic rare earth companies and implement subsidy policies to encourage private sector development, reflecting the U.S.'s struggle with its industrial shortcomings [3] - Wall Street remains cautious about investing in rare earth projects due to high risks associated with technological barriers and environmental regulations [3] Group 3 - The U.S. is looking to Southeast Asia, particularly Myanmar, for rare earth resources, but the region's unstable security and poor transportation conditions pose significant challenges [5] - Even if rare earths are extracted from Myanmar, they still require processing in China, highlighting the U.S.'s continued reliance on Chinese technology [5] Group 4 - China's management of rare earth resources involves usage reviews and user screenings, allowing normal supply for civilian use while restricting military-grade demand, which positions China favorably in the global supply chain [7] - The ongoing rare earth competition illustrates the short-sightedness of the U.S. regarding critical resources and serves as a warning about the complexities of global supply chain security [7] - The situation emphasizes the need for countries to reassess their strategies concerning the control and cooperation over key resources in an increasingly competitive environment [7]

Group 1 - Rare earth elements are a strategic resource that can significantly constrain the U.S. military supply chain [3] - Samarium, a rare metal, plays a crucial role in military applications, particularly in missile and aircraft technology [4][5] - China currently holds a near-monopoly on samarium supply, with major U.S. defense contractor Lockheed Martin being the largest importer [6] Group 2 - China has recently suspended exports of seven types of rare earths, including dysprosium and terbium, which are essential for automotive production [8] - China accounts for over 90% of the global supply of dysprosium and terbium, putting many automotive manufacturers in Europe and the U.S. at risk of production halts [8] - The recent trade tensions and restrictions imposed by Western countries have led China to leverage its rare earth resources as a countermeasure [10][11] Group 3 - Despite holding only one-third of global rare earth mines, China dominates the separation capacity, controlling over 90% of the global processing capabilities [11][12] - Other countries, including the U.S. and Japan, have attempted to develop their own rare earth processing capabilities, but their output is insufficient to meet market demands [13] - China's control over the rare earth supply chain positions it as a critical player in the global industrial landscape, creating significant leverage over other nations [13]

Core Viewpoint - The recent meetings in Shenzhen and Changsha signal China's strong stance on controlling strategic mineral exports, emphasizing national security and development interests [2][6]. Group 1: Strategic Mineral Export Control - Two significant meetings were held on May 9 and May 12, focusing on combating the smuggling of strategic minerals and enhancing export control measures [2][6]. - China has implemented export controls on seven categories of rare earth elements in response to international pressures, highlighting the strategic importance of these resources in the ongoing trade conflict [2][3]. - The U.S. heavily relies on China for rare earth imports, with 70% of its rare earth compounds and metals coming from China between 2020 and 2023 [3]. Group 2: Government Coordination and Actions - The meetings involved multiple government departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and Ministry of Public Security, indicating a coordinated effort to address the issue [7]. - The focus is on both preventing illegal outflows of strategic minerals and cracking down on smuggling networks, with a strong emphasis on proactive measures and information sharing [9][10]. - The government aims to strengthen training and supervision of relevant entities to ensure compliance with export control measures [9].

Core Viewpoint - The trade conflict between the U.S. and China has escalated, with China leveraging its dominance in rare earth elements to target critical U.S. military capabilities, revealing a deeper struggle for global technological supremacy [1][3][8] Group 1: Impact on U.S. Military - China's export restrictions on seven key rare earth elements directly threaten U.S. military technology development, particularly affecting the F-47 sixth-generation fighter jet and electronic warfare systems [3][6] - The U.S. currently relies on China for 90% of its rare earth supply, with domestic production only accounting for 15% of global output, highlighting a significant vulnerability in the U.S. defense supply chain [3][6] - The urgency in Washington's response, including invoking the Defense Production Act and seeking resources in Greenland and Ukraine, underscores the strategic shortfalls in U.S. military supply chains [3][6] Group 2: Global Supply Chain Dynamics - China's export controls are not limited to the U.S. but apply globally, complicating the supply chain for all nations and creating a "suspicion chain" regarding rare earth procurement [6][8] - The ambiguity in China's strategy allows it to maintain a moral high ground while inducing anxiety in U.S. supply chains, as defense contractors cannot easily identify military-grade rare earths [6][8] - The global interdependence on rare earths is illustrated by the irony that even if U.S. mines become operational, the processing still relies on Chinese technology, emphasizing the complexity of the global supply chain [8] Group 3: Future Implications - The ongoing rare earth conflict is fundamentally a battle for future industrial dominance, as advancements in military technology increasingly depend on these materials [8] - The competition is shifting from traditional military assets to control over critical materials, with the potential to redefine modern warfare [8] - The U.S. faces a daunting challenge in countering China's three-decade lead in rare earth production and processing, indicating a significant gap in industrial capabilities [8]

中国的港湾（Reuters） 含有稀土的土被运到 金融市场意识如果中国卖出美国国债是特朗普的弱点。而在安全相关人士之间，稀土资源的 动向作为预测"持续战斗力"的因素而备受关注。中国的稀土管制最迟半年左右就会对美国的武 器制造产生全面影响…… 在中美贸易战中，稀土正成为特朗普政府的弱点。中国政府出口管制的品类对于美军的最 新战斗机与核潜艇的制造至关重要。有观点认为如果禁运持续数个月，将影响到美国的武器 制造，贸易战的持续将变得困难。 F35和最先进核潜艇的制造离不开稀土 中国从4月4日启动的出口管制以稀土中稀有价值尤其高的中重稀土类为对象。包括钐、 钆、铽、镝、镥、钪、钇等7种。 这些稀土对中国的依赖程度极高，全球近99%被认为由中国加工。在被列入出口管制清单 的约15家美国企业中，除一家之外，均为国防相关企业。显然，中国寻求对美国国防产业造 成打击。 美国战略与国际研究中心的格拉塞林·巴斯卡兰指出，目前中美两国的武器生产速度仍存 在差距。据悉，中国正在迅速扩充生产体系，以比美国快5～6倍的速度制造和采购先进的武 器系统及相关装备。 从稀土等成为武器生产基础的供应链来看，美国比中国脆弱。美国国防部在2024年的 ...