展望2026年，摩根资产管理中国资深环球市场策略师蒋先威表示，全球经济增速或将放缓，但随着利率 逐步下行，主要成熟市场货币政策收紧节奏有望趋缓，低利率环境仍将对经济形成支撑。对中国而言， 外部不确定性减弱、政策环境保持友好，叠加企业盈利周期触底回升以及反内卷政策对无序扩张的约 束，工业企业利润修复进程有望加快。 在资产配置层面，蒋先威指出，企业盈利改善有望支撑全球权益市场表现，但在高估值与地缘政治不确 定性并存的背景下，投资者需合理降低回报预期，并通过多元化配置分散风险。A股市场吸引力有望提 升，重点关注高景气核心资产、出海相关赛道及供需格局改善的行业。 近日，摩根资产管理举办新年投资策略会。在A股投资机会上，摩根资产管理中国权益团队均衡成长组 长李博表示，判断2026年A股机会大于风险，结构性行情有望持续演绎，投资上建议保持均衡分散。 他建议重点关注四个方向：一是消费电子仍处于创新周期，龙头公司估值处于相对低位，具备中长期配 置价值;二是锂电产业链，在以旧换新补贴政策支持下，国内电动车需求有望延续增长;三是大金融板 块，若权益市场维持慢牛，非银金融基本面或保持景气;四是围绕扩内需政策主线，新兴细分领域值得 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent report from Huatai Securities indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a period of fluctuation, with increased investor caution and a focus on when the "main upward wave" will form [1] Market Conditions - The A-share market is currently in a state of oscillation, with investors adopting a wait-and-see approach [1] - There is a need for cumulative forces for the market to break through, considering A-share earnings elasticity, policy direction, and overseas influences [1] Key Focus Areas - Future attention will be on Nvidia's earnings report, the Politburo meeting, and the evolution of the A-share capacity cycle [1] Investment Opportunities - Short-term rebound logic exists for low-position sectors, with potential for performance improvement [1] - Specific areas to watch include: 1. The AI industry chain, which has seen a decrease in crowding to the lowest level since July, focusing on Hang Seng Technology, domestic computing power, AI edge computing, and application sectors [1] 2. Low-position sectors such as engineering machinery, textile manufacturing, photovoltaic equipment, general equipment, railway and highway, building materials, and consumer goods, which show potential for performance improvement [1] 3. Within the lithium battery industry chain, attention can be directed towards fluorochemical sectors that are relatively less heated [1]