上证指数日K线图 ■机构展望 沪指站上3800点 A股有望形成良性资金循环 机构认为，市场将从更关注短期动量，向中期视角、投资性价比回归。在基本面积极因素进一步累积、 主线板块线索更加清晰后，本轮行情才能走得"更远、更高、更好" ◎记者汪友若 上周，A股市场持续走强，沪指站上3800点，成交额连续8个交易日突破2万亿元，资金风险偏好持续回 升。 机构普遍认为，驱动指数上行的核心是增量流动性。同时投资者应该意识到，制造业景气度回升、企业 盈利迎来改善拐点是驱动资金流向股市的重要背景。本轮行情从起步到加速，其核心线索均围绕产业趋 势和公司业绩。 展望后市，机构普遍认为，新旧资金接力，A股有望形成"股市慢涨—信心增强—资金流入"的良性循 环。 高净值人群或是主要增量 围绕产业趋势强劲的板块进行交易 展望后市，机构普遍认为，A股有望形成"股市慢涨—信心增强—资金流入"的良性循环。行业表现上， 市场依然会围绕产业趋势强劲的板块进行交易，主线方向"强者恒强"。 中国银河证券表示，日前的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，美联储主席鲍威尔释放宽松信号。美元指数长 期走弱周期下，全球资本流向重塑将为A股市场向上提供进一步支撑。 在申万 ...

Group 1 - The company expects to record revenue of approximately RMB 1.5 billion to RMB 1.6 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 2.2% to 9.0% [1] - The company anticipates a net profit estimate of RMB 1 million to RMB 5 million for the same period, compared to a net loss of RMB 36.1 million for the six months ending June 30, 2024 [1] - The improvement in net profit is primarily attributed to the control of sales, marketing expenses, and administrative costs, despite facing unprecedented challenges in the industry [1] Group 2 - The company has managed to maintain normal operations due to the collective efforts of all employees, despite numerous adverse factors impacting industry sales and public market financing [1]

◎农银汇理基金经理 宋永安 7月30日召开的中央政治局会议提出，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，推动市场竞争秩序持续优化。依 法依规治理企业无序竞争。推进重点行业产能治理。 这一政策导向不仅是行业"反内卷"的关键抓手，更蕴含企业盈利改善与资本市场估值重塑的双重机遇。 钢铁、光伏、化工、新能源车等领域，在蓬勃发展的同时，企业却陷入利润亏损的怪圈。追本溯源，核 心症结在于"内卷式"竞争——企业脱离利润目标盲目追求规模扩张，最终导致产能浪费、整体盈利承 压。 从发展逻辑看，地方政府早期通过电价优惠、信贷支持等政策扶持企业成长，在行业培育期起到了积极 作用。但随着行业步入成熟期，若仍依赖政策推动规模扩张，易引发无序竞争。因此，优化竞争秩序， 既是遏制资源空耗的必然选择，更是推动行业回归健康发展轨道的关键一步，这将为技术迭代、效率提 升腾挪空间，从根本上改善企业盈利基本面。 ■普惠金融·农银汇理基金投资视点 企业盈利回暖 与投资机遇共振信号显现 映射到资本市场，A 股市场对相关行业的估值普遍偏低，核心原因在于过度竞争让投资者难以看到清晰 的盈利前景，只能被动等待行业底部出清。但政策的明确指引有望打破这一局面，相较行业自发调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a significant rally, with the S&P 500 index rising nearly 24% since mid-April, prompting discussions about the sustainability of this bull market [1] Group 1: Corporate Earnings Improvement - The primary driver for the continued rise in U.S. stocks is the improvement in corporate earnings, with recent upward revisions in earnings forecasts for S&P 500 constituents [3] - The breadth of earnings improvement is expanding beyond just technology giants, as indicated by the ERB indicator, which has rebounded from -25% in mid-April to -5% currently [3] - Historical data suggests that such turning points often signal a strong return outlook for the market, with large-cap quality stocks benefiting first, followed by small-cap and lower-quality stocks [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Expectations - A shift in expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy is the second catalyst supporting the rise in U.S. stocks, with predictions of up to seven interest rate cuts by 2026 [4] - The market tends to react proactively to anticipated changes in monetary policy rather than waiting for explicit signals [4] - While there are risks associated with rising unemployment potentially disrupting market optimism, this scenario is not included in Morgan Stanley's baseline forecast [4] Group 3: Market Resilience to External Shocks - The strong resilience of the U.S. stock market in absorbing external shocks is the third pillar supporting its future performance, mirroring historical trends following geopolitical conflicts [5] - The easing tensions between Iran and Israel and the subsequent decline in international oil prices have reduced energy cost threats to the economic cycle [5] - The potential removal of "retaliatory tariffs" from tax reform legislation is expected to boost market confidence, alongside a decrease in the yield premium on U.S. Treasuries, indicating alleviated concerns about U.S. fiscal health [5] - Morgan Stanley maintains a target of 6,500 points for the S&P 500 index over the next 12 months, provided that the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.5% [5]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance this year, with the total scale of Hong Kong-themed ETFs approaching 360 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 96.1 billion yuan compared to the end of last year [1][3] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index have increased by 18.61% and 18.32% respectively [3] ETF Growth - As of June 6, there are 144 Hong Kong-themed ETFs with a total scale of 357.24 billion yuan, up from 261.1 billion yuan at the end of last year, marking a growth of 96.1 billion yuan [3] - The largest Hong Kong-themed ETF is the FTSE China Hong Kong Internet ETF, with a scale of approximately 45.6 billion yuan [3] Fund Inflows - Southbound capital has seen a cumulative net inflow of over 600 billion HKD, accounting for nearly 82% of the expected total for 2024, with an average daily net inflow exceeding 8 billion HKD [3] - The number of Hong Kong-themed funds issued this year has reached 43, most of which are passive index funds [4] Investment Outlook - Industry experts believe that the Hong Kong stock market still holds long-term investment value, particularly in sectors such as internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, smart vehicles, and new consumption [1][4] - Despite recent gains, the valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains relatively low, with the Hang Seng Index trading at a P/E ratio of approximately 10.2, lower than the S&P 500 and CSI 300 indices [6] Sector Focus - Key investment opportunities are identified in new consumption sectors such as trendy toys, tea drinks, and domestic beauty products, as well as in technology and innovative pharmaceuticals [6][7] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has seen overseas licensing transactions exceed 50 billion USD, indicating a potential profitability turning point [7] Market Strategy - Investors are advised to avoid chasing high prices and to focus on the fundamentals of companies, as well as changes in the macroeconomic environment [1][7] - A balanced strategy of "high dividend + technology growth" is suggested to capture both valuation recovery and industrial upgrades [6]