01 华泰张继强：新开局下的叙事与主线【把握2026投资机会】 15:00-16:00 核心看点： AI投资热潮会否迎来关键验证？全球"财政扩张+货币配合"将如何搅动市场？国内新旧 动能转换能否进入"右侧开花结果"？明年我们能否等来企业盈利的实质性改善？ 嘉宾： 张继强丨华泰证券研究所所长，总量研究负责人，固收首席分析师 扫码预约 02 中金陈健恒：中美新老经济分化加剧，债牛趋势更为确定 16:00-17:00 核心看点 ： 聚焦三大核心驱动力：出口放量，核电资本开支加速与技术升级，以及AI数据中心用电 结构变革。 嘉宾： 廖启华丨瑞银大中华区能源转型及新能源行业研究主管 严亦舒丨瑞银证券中国公共事业及新能源行业分析师 利林海丨瑞银证券中国公共事业及新能源行业分析师 徐宾丨瑞银证券中国研究部总监 核心看点： 中美新老经济分化加剧，股牛和债牛并不对立。全球财政政策持续宽松后，面临制约的 情况下，货币政策有望接力放松，且全球货币政策空间依然较为充足。中国今年在贸易顺差和财政 赤字创新高的情况下，经济和股市有支撑，明年这两个因素的同比拉动减弱，债券利率将重新加快 回落速度。在全球贸易和地缘和各国政策摩擦性增加的情况 ...

Group 1 - The overall sentiment among brokerages for the A-share market in 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of a sustained slow bull market and potential to challenge ten-year highs [2][3]. - Brokerages believe that A-share valuations remain low, with anticipated improvements in earnings and continued liquidity support, alongside policy backing, contributing to upward market movement [2][4]. - The current market position is viewed as a potential starting point for a long-term bull market, driven by gradual improvements in fundamentals and industry highlights, with significant room for index growth [4][5]. Group 2 - Multiple brokerages emphasize the importance of corporate earnings recovery as a key driver for the A-share market, with expectations that the earnings cycle will gradually improve [5][6]. - Predictions indicate that the net profit growth rate for non-financial companies in the A-share market will be 6.4% in 2025 and 12.9% in 2026, with specific sectors like oil and petrochemicals expected to see higher growth [6]. - The liquidity environment is expected to support the market, although low-risk preference funds have been slow to enter the equity market, indicating a long-term process for significant capital inflows [7]. Group 3 - The technology sector is highlighted as a key focus for investment in 2026, with expectations of balanced industry performance and opportunities in advanced manufacturing and TMT sectors [8]. - Brokerages suggest a shift from a barbell strategy to a quality strategy, with emerging technologies being the main focus while also considering cyclical consumption and financial stocks [8].

Group 1 - The implementation of a package of incremental policies since September 26 last year has led to a steady recovery in both invoice sales and tax revenue, indicating a positive trend in the economy [1] - The quarterly sales revenue growth for enterprises has shown a steady increase from 0.4% to 4.4% over the past year, reflecting improved business conditions [1] - Tax revenue related to the capital market has increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 56.8%, and securities transaction stamp duty rising by 110.5%, indicating active stock market trading [2] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector has seen a year-on-year tax revenue growth of 5.4%, contributing significantly to overall tax revenue, with high-end manufacturing sectors like aerospace and transportation equipment growing by 31.5% [2] - The real estate sector has experienced a narrowing decline in tax revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, reflecting the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [3] - The consumption of durable goods has increased, with retail sales of home appliances like refrigerators and televisions growing by 55.4% and 35.3% respectively, indicating a boost in consumer spending [3]

Group 1 - The implementation of a package of incremental policies since September 26 last year has led to a steady recovery in both invoice sales and tax revenue, indicating a positive trend in the economy [1] - The quarterly sales revenue growth for enterprises has shown a steady increase, with growth rates of 0.4%, 2.6%, 2.1%, 3.1%, and 4.4% from Q3 last year to Q3 this year [1] - Tax revenue has turned positive after seven months of negative growth, with continuous positive growth for eight months since February this year, showing an increasing cumulative growth rate [1] Group 2 - Tax revenue from the capital market services sector has increased by 56.8% year-on-year, with securities transaction stamp duty rising by 110.5%, reflecting active stock market trading [2] - The manufacturing sector's tax revenue has grown by 5.4% year-on-year, accounting for 31% of total tax revenue, with high-end manufacturing sectors like railway and aerospace showing significant growth [2] - The domestic value-added tax has increased by 3.2% year-on-year, indicating improved business operations, while corporate income tax has risen by 4.1%, reflecting better profitability in certain industries [2] Group 3 - The decline in tax revenue related to the real estate sector has narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, indicating the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [3] - The implementation of tax reduction policies has led to nearly 80 billion yuan in new tax cuts, significantly lowering transaction costs for residential housing [3] - The procurement of machinery and equipment by enterprises has increased by 9.7% year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing showing an 11.8% growth, indicating a positive trend in capital investment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment is positively influenced by the smooth progress of Sino-US talks and the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to increased investment in the China A-share market, particularly in the Zhongzheng A500 ETF (159338) [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The Zhongzheng A500 ETF (159338) saw an inflow of 333 million shares, indicating strong demand for this core asset among investors [1] - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend in the medium term, with significant potential in sectors such as new energy and technology growth [1] - Long-term support for the market is anticipated from the internationalization of the RMB and improvements in corporate profitability [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The ongoing market profitability effect is likely to attract more funds, suggesting a focus on representative broad-based products like the Zhongzheng A500 ETF (159338) [1] - The Guotai Zhongzheng A500 ETF ranks first in terms of the number of accounts among similar products, with over three times the number of accounts compared to the second-ranked product [1] - Investors without stock accounts are encouraged to consider the Guotai Zhongzheng A500 ETF linked products, including A (022448), C (022449), and I (022610) [1]

Group 1 - A-shares continue to show an upward trend with technology sectors like communication and electronics leading the gains, while the cyclical sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, performs well [2] - The market is expected to exhibit a phase of consolidation with rotating hotspots, focusing on resource sectors, innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, chemicals, gaming, and military industries [2][6] - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.4%, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment, with key price indices also showing upward trends [4] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is accelerating a new round of capital market reforms to enhance market attractiveness and promote long-term investment [3] - Central Huijin increased holdings in 12 ETF products in the first half of the year, indicating a stable investment strategy [5] - Various institutions recommend focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic economic recovery and global manufacturing activity, including industrial metals and consumer-related fields [8][9][10] Group 3 - The market is expected to maintain a high trading volume with structural opportunities arising from policy expectations and liquidity support [7] - The focus for September includes sectors with potential for profit recovery, particularly in consumer electronics and resource sectors [6][11] - Investment strategies should consider technology sectors with performance support and cyclical sectors with clear growth potential [12]

Group 1: Market Trends - A-shares continue to show an upward trend with sectors like telecommunications and electronics leading the gains, while the metals sector performs well among cyclical stocks [1] - The market is expected to exhibit a phase of consolidation with rotating hotspots, focusing on resource sectors, innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, chemicals, gaming, and military industries [1][5][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from July, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [3] - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index for August are 53.3% and 49.1%, respectively, both showing a month-on-month increase, suggesting a continued improvement in market price levels [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Central Huijin increased holdings in 12 ETF products in the first half of the year, indicating a stable investment strategy in the ETF market [4] - Investment recommendations include focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic "anti-involution," such as industrial metals, raw materials, and capital goods, as well as insurance and brokerage sectors [7] - The market is expected to remain active with a focus on structural allocation opportunities, particularly in technology growth sectors that have not been fully explored [6][8]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3800 points and trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan for eight consecutive trading days, indicating a rise in risk appetite among investors [2] - The core driver of the index's upward movement is the increase in liquidity, alongside a recovery in manufacturing sentiment and improvements in corporate earnings, which are crucial for directing funds into the stock market [2][4] - Institutions believe that a positive cycle of "slow market rise—enhanced confidence—capital inflow" is likely to form in the A-share market [2][6] Group 2 - High-net-worth individuals and corporate clients have significantly increased their participation in the current market rally, with new A-share accounts reaching 1.9636 million in July 2025, a 71% year-on-year increase [3] - Private equity products aimed at high-net-worth clients have seen a surge in popularity, with private equity registration scale reaching 79.3 billion yuan in July, a 164% month-on-month increase and a 407% year-on-year increase [4] - Companies are shifting from real investment to utilizing capital markets, with at least 60 listed companies announcing plans to use idle funds for securities investment this year, including eight companies planning investments exceeding 1 billion yuan [4] Group 3 - The market is expected to focus on sectors with strong industrial trends, with a "stronger will remain strong" approach in stock selection [6] - The recent Jackson Hole global central bank meeting indicated a dovish signal from the Federal Reserve, which may support upward movement in the A-share market as global capital flows are reshaped [6] - Analysts suggest that the market may experience short-term fluctuations around early September, but the overall trend will depend on the accumulation of positive fundamental factors and clearer sectoral leads [6]

Group 1 - The company expects to record revenue of approximately RMB 1.5 billion to RMB 1.6 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 2.2% to 9.0% [1] - The company anticipates a net profit estimate of RMB 1 million to RMB 5 million for the same period, compared to a net loss of RMB 36.1 million for the six months ending June 30, 2024 [1] - The improvement in net profit is primarily attributed to the control of sales, marketing expenses, and administrative costs, despite facing unprecedented challenges in the industry [1] Group 2 - The company has managed to maintain normal operations due to the collective efforts of all employees, despite numerous adverse factors impacting industry sales and public market financing [1]

Group 1 - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and optimize market competition order, which is crucial for improving corporate profitability and reshaping capital market valuations [1] - The phenomenon of "involution" in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, chemicals, and new energy vehicles has led to profit losses due to blind pursuit of scale expansion, resulting in resource waste and pressure on overall profitability [1] - Early government support through policies like electricity price discounts and credit support was beneficial during the industry cultivation phase, but reliance on such policies in the mature phase can lead to disorderly competition [1] Group 2 - The A-share market shows generally low valuations for related industries, primarily due to excessive competition obscuring clear profit prospects for investors, who are waiting for industry bottoming out [2] - Policy guidance is expected to break the current situation, with orderly governance underpinned by policy likely to shorten the adjustment process, accelerating the timeline for corporate profit recovery and valuation rationalization [2] - Traditional industries like steel and cement have entered a mature phase with stable profitability, while emerging sectors like photovoltaic and new energy equipment, despite being in a growth phase, may release greater capital appreciation potential following optimization of competition order [2]