年末资产负债表压力推高借款需求 金融机构在季末和年末通常会收紧资金投放以保存现金和管理资产负债表，这一季节性模式推高了回购市场的短期借款成本。纽约联储数据显 示，以担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）衡量的回购利率近日攀升，周一触及3.77%的两周多高点，随后回落至周二的3.71%。 周三SRF的使用激增与市场利率走势直接相关。Curvature Securities执行副总裁Scott Skyrm指出，周三早间一般抵押品回购利率约为3.9%，高于 SRF的3.75%利率，这促使银行选择以更低成本从美联储借款，而非转向公开市场。 美联储常备回购便利在2025年最后一个交易日的使用规模创下历史新高。纽约联储的常备回购便利（SRF）周三向符合条件的金融机构提供了746 亿美元的贷款，远超10月31日创下的503.5亿美元纪录高点。这些贷款以315亿美元的美国国债和431亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券作为抵押。 尽管借款规模创下新高，但市场参与者与分析师普遍认为，这更多是金融机构应对年末监管与结算的常规操作，而非市场出现结构性压力的危机 信号。 TD Securities美国利率策略师Jan Nevruzi表示，如果美联储没有重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) tool has significantly decreased, raising concerns about potential liquidity issues in the market, reminiscent of the 2019 crisis [2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Tools and Market Impact - The ON RRP usage fell below $50 billion, a recent low compared to peaks of $2 trillion in 2022 and 2023, indicating a shift in strategy among money market funds towards short-term Treasury purchases [2] - Analysts predict that ON RRP usage may drop to zero by the end of August but could see a slight increase in September due to quarter-end financing demands [2] - The Federal Reserve established a standing repo facility post-2019 to provide liquidity to primary dealers, aiming to stabilize short-term financing rates [2][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Management - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet remains significantly below pre-crisis levels, currently around $6.6 trillion, down from nearly $9 trillion at the pandemic peak [3] - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan indicated that banks may turn to the standing repo facility for liquidity if they face funding pressures next month, suggesting a potential further reduction in reserves [3] - Recent trends show that repo rates have averaged about 8 basis points lower than reserve rates, indicating room for further reserve reductions [3] Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Projections - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue reducing its balance sheet by the end of the year unless a significant market shock occurs [5] - Current market conditions are characterized by low volatility, with no immediate concerns prompting investor anxiety [5] - The impact of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet adjustments is often overlooked, despite its significant influence on market dynamics [4]