7月19日，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程正式开工。这个斥资超万亿、建设周期超十年的水电工程，堪称史上规模最大的超级工程。 3000亿度的年发电量什么水平？超过全球90%以上的国家，能满足3亿人一年的用电需求。 01 年发电量相当于英国的1.1倍 中国是全球发电量第一的国家，2024年发电量 10.09万亿千瓦时，占全球总量的近30%，比第二至第六名的美国、印度、俄罗斯、日本、巴西加起来还要 多。 3000亿度的发电量，相当于越南去年一年的发电总量（3035.88亿度），大约排在全球第16位，超过90%以上的国家和地区，是英国、澳大利亚的1.1倍， 泰国的1.5倍，阿根廷的2倍，乌克兰的3倍。 3000亿度与部分发电大国2024年发电量之比 6.5% 14.8% 24.8% 29.5% 40.2% e西 美国 印度 俄罗斯 日本 18 00% 75.8% 85.0% 98.8% 士耳其 韩国 德国 伊朗 越南 4.7 3.7 3.0 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.1 乌克兰 英国 伊拉克 阿根廷 菲律宾 瑞士 秘鲁 泰国 注:根据《世界能源统计年鉴2025》数据计算 雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程选址于世界水能最富集的 ...

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.46% at 119.970 yuan, the 10-year main contract down 0.05% at 108.760 yuan, the 5-year main contract down 0.05% at 105.955 yuan, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01% at 102.420 yuan [1] - As of 17:00, the yield on the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" rose by 1.4 basis points to 1.887%, the yield on the 10-year government development bond "25 National Development 10" rose by 1.05 basis points to 1.7525%, and the yield on the 10-year government bond "25 Coupon Government Bond 11" rose by 0.95 basis points to 1.6735% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 170.7 billion yuan at a fixed rate, with a bidding amount of 170.7 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 170.7 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 226.2 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan [2] - The overnight repurchase weighted rate (DR001) fell by nearly 10 basis points to around 1.35%, indicating a gradual return to a balanced but slightly loose liquidity environment post-tax period [2] News Developments - On July 19, the groundbreaking ceremony for the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project was held in Linzhi City, Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan for the construction of five tiered power stations [3] - The project primarily focuses on power transmission and consumption outside Tibet while also addressing local demand [3] - The stock market opened high and continued to trend upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.72%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.87% [3] - A total trading volume of 1.73 trillion yuan was recorded, up from 1.59 trillion yuan the previous day, with 4,000 stocks gaining and the number of stocks hitting the daily limit reaching a two-month high [3] Operational Suggestions - Recent policies against excessive competition and the commencement of large infrastructure projects have boosted the commodity and equity markets, leading to a recovery in risk appetite that may suppress the bond market [4] - Current fundamental data shows a supply-demand divergence, with production continuing to rise, positively impacting quarterly GDP performance, but nominal growth is hindered by low inflation, affecting corporate profits and real economic sentiment [4] - The period of July to August may see a new round of stable real estate policies, government investment expansion, and tariff negotiations, indicating a complex macroeconomic outlook [4] - The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound phase due to the lack of a clear main trend, with the T2509 contract focusing on support around 108.6 [4] - A cautious approach is recommended in the short term, monitoring funding conditions and incremental policy developments, while considering a potential shift towards a looser funding environment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a significant rally on July 21, with both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index reaching new highs for the year, driven primarily by infrastructure-related stocks and a surge in trading volume [1][2][3]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.72%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.87% [1]. - Over 4,000 stocks in the market saw gains, with more than a hundred stocks hitting the daily limit up [2]. Sector Highlights - Infrastructure stocks, particularly in cement and building materials, saw a collective surge, with companies like Conch Cement hitting the daily limit up [3][8]. - High-voltage power transmission and grid concept stocks also performed strongly, with companies such as Guodian Nanzi reaching the daily limit up [4][8]. - The robotics sector maintained its strength, exemplified by Changsheng Bearing hitting the daily limit up [5]. Trading Volume and Key Stocks - The total trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 128.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5]. - Notable stocks by trading volume included Northern Rare Earth at 14.664 billion yuan, followed by Dongfang Fortune, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Ningde Times with trading volumes of 11.143 billion yuan, 10.910 billion yuan, and 9.047 billion yuan respectively [5]. Specific Events - The launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, has sparked a rally in related stocks [9]. - An unusual trading incident occurred with Dongfang Electric, where a transaction at an inflated price led to a temporary spike of over 700% in its stock price before stabilizing [11][12]. Foreign Investment Sentiment - Foreign institutional investors are increasingly optimistic about Chinese core assets, with a focus on sectors such as domestic consumption and technology [14][15]. - Recent engagements with foreign sovereign funds and large asset management firms indicate a positive outlook on A-shares, with a shift in interest towards Hong Kong markets as a financial hub [14].

从工程定位来看，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程是推进低碳发展的绿色工程——将利用雅鲁藏布江丰富的水 能资源，带动周边太阳能、风能资源开发，建设水风光互补的清洁能源基地，成为我国推动能源绿色低 碳转型的重大举措；同时，工程也是实现富民兴藏的民心工程，工程建设将直接带动当地工程建造、物 流运输、商贸服务等产业快速发展，创造大量新增就业岗位，建成后更将提升电力、水利、交通等基础 设施水平，加强西藏地区与其他地区的发展对接，为西藏各族人民带来更多获得感、幸福感和安全感； 此外，工程还是坚持生态优先的安全工程，通过大量地质勘探和技术积累，已为科学、安全、高质量开 发工程奠定坚实基础，工程建设中还将依托项目健全当地生态环境监测网络体系，实现点上开发、面上 保护，促进人与自然和谐共生。 作为这一重大工程的项目业主单位，中国雅江集团有限公司将负责推进雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程。工程 位于西藏自治区林芝市，主要采取截弯取直、隧洞引水的开发方式，建设5座梯级电站，总投资约1.2万 亿元，电力以外送消纳为主，兼顾西藏本地自用需求。 回溯工程进程，2024年12月，中国政府已正式核准雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程。据新华社报道，该工程将 为加快构建新发 ...