1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market is expected to operate weakly but may be affected by fuel prices [3] - The valuation of the 04 contract is neutral, and the 06 contract has become the main contract. It is recommended to wait and see because it is greatly affected by geopolitical news and shipping company behavior, and its valuation is difficult to anchor [3] - Due to the ongoing and unpredictable geopolitical risks, it is recommended to observe opportunities arising from the deviation of monthly spreads, but attention should be paid to the current poor liquidity of EC [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2604 - EC2612 contracts on the previous day ranged from 1592.8 to 2586.2, with price changes from -5.46% to 2%. For example, EC2604 was 1672.9 with a -27.2% change, and EC2606 was 2394.1 with a -5.46% change [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of contracts on the previous day varied from 42 to 20444, and the open interest ranged from 467 to 16342, with changes in open interest from -1369 to -4 [2] - **Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of different contract combinations (e.g., EC2604 - 2606, EC2604 - 2605) showed different values and changes compared to previous days and weeks. For example, the EC2604 - 2606 spread was -721.2, with a day - on - day increase of 91.4 and a week - on - week decrease of 160.1 [2] Spot Market Information - **Spot Index Changes**: The TERMINAL index on March 30, 2026, was 1752.54 points, with a 3.50% increase from the previous period. The SCFI index on March 27, 2026, was 1703 dollars/TEU, with a 4.10% increase from the previous period [2] - **European Line Spot Situation**: The price increase in April failed. In Week 14, the average quotation was 2570 dollars, equivalent to 1800 points on the disk. In Week 15, Maersk's quotation was 2350 dollars (a 300 - dollar decrease from the previous week), and the average quotation of shipping companies was 2450 dollars, equivalent to 1715 points on the disk. In Week 16, Maersk's opening quotation was 2200/2300 dollars, and a 400 - dollar/FEU surcharge was implemented for long - term contracts [4] Relevant News - Trump said that the US would end the war in Iran in two to three weeks and would give a national speech on the Iran issue at 9 pm local time on the next day (9 am Beijing time on Thursday) [5] - The Iranian president was willing to end the war under the condition of obtaining guarantees [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. Contract 04 is gradually entering the delivery logic, and it is necessary to observe whether there are opportunities for basis repair. Although historically, the reverse spreads of 6 - 7 and 6 - 8 are reasonably valued, it still depends on the duration of the geopolitical situation. If the issue is resolved in May, the current structure is also reasonable [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2604 closed at 1905.3 yesterday, down 4.95%; EC2605 at 2137.0, down 4.64%; EC2606 at 2342.0, down 4.53%; EC2607 at 2475.0, down 2.93%; EC2608 at 2316.0, down 3.54%; EC2609 at 1693.3, down 3.34%; EC2610 at 1525.4, down 3.46%; EC2612 at 1718.8, down 4.56% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of each contract vary, with some contracts showing a decrease in open interest, such as EC2604 with an open - interest change of - 2265, and EC2605 with a change of - 81 [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contract combinations have changed. For example, the spread of EC2604 - 2606 was - 436.7, with a day - on - day increase of 11.8 and a week - on - week decrease of 19.9 [2] Spot Market Information - **Spot Price and Index**: The spot price (in points) was 1545.46 on March 9, 2026, up 5.61% from the previous period. The SCFI (European Line) was 1618 US dollars/TEU on March 13, 2026, up 11.43% from the previous period [2] - **European Line Spot Price Increase**: In March, OA and PA alliances, and MSC announced price increases to around 4000 US dollars. In Week 12, the average price was 2450 US dollars, equivalent to about 1715 points on the futures market. In Week 13, MSK kept the price flat at 2250 US dollars, and other shipping companies quoted around 2700 - 3000 US dollars. On Tuesday, Maersk opened the cabin for the first week of April (Week 14) at 2650 US dollars (up 400 US dollars from the previous period) [3] News - **Fuel Surcharge Increase**: On March 18, CMA CGM raised the emergency fuel surcharge from 150 to 265 US dollars/TEU [4] - **Geopolitical Events**: On March 18, Iran's National Television reported that parts of the South Pars Gas Field and the Asaluyeh Petroleum Industry Facilities were attacked. On March 19, the US Senate rejected the resolution to limit the use of force against Iran again. Trump is considering sending thousands of troops to the Middle East and evaluating ground - action options. Iran warned that if the attacks continue, it will expand the scope of strikes to all energy infrastructure of US and Israeli allies [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach [2] Core Viewpoints - The EC2604 contract is gradually entering the delivery logic, and it is necessary to observe whether there is an opportunity for basis repair. Although the historical seasonality shows that the 6 - 7 and 6 - 8 reverse spreads have appropriate valuations, it still depends on the duration of the geopolitical situation. If the issue is resolved in May, the current structure is also reasonable [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - For the EC2604 contract, the previous closing price was 1905.3, with a decline of 4.95%, a basis of - 359.8, a trading volume of 27129, an open interest of 21187, and an open interest change of - 2265 [2] - For the EC2605 contract, the price was 2137.0, with a decline of 4.64%, a basis of - 591.5, a trading volume of 1060, an open interest of 1847, and an open interest change of - 81 [2] - For the EC2606 contract, the price was 2342.0, with a decline of 4.53%, a basis of - 796.5, a trading volume of 10169, an open interest of 13686, and an open interest change of - 462 [2] - For the EC2607 contract, the price was 2475.0, with a decline of 2.93%, a basis of - 929.5, a trading volume of 393, an open interest of 841, and an open interest change of 60 [2] - For the EC2608 contract, the price was 2316.0, with a decline of 3.54%, a basis of - 770.5, a trading volume of 1094, an open interest of 2770, and an open interest change of - 6 [2] - For the EC2609 contract, the price was 1693.3, with a decline of 3.34%, a basis of - 147.8, a trading volume of 127, an open interest of 542, and an open interest change of 8 [2] - For the EC2610 contract, the price was 1525.4, with a decline of 3.46%, a basis of 20.1, a trading volume of 2351, an open interest of 7808, and an open interest change of - 147 [2] - For the EC2612 contract, the price was 1718.8, with a decline of 4.56%, a basis of - 173.3, a trading volume of 113, an open interest of 411, and an open interest change of 6 [2] Month - to - Month Spread Information - The EC2604 - 2606 spread was - 436.7, with a daily increase of 11.8 and a weekly decrease of 19.9 [2] - The EC2604 - 2605 spread was - 231.7, with a daily increase of 4.7 and a weekly decrease of 186.3 [2] - The EC2606 - 2610 spread was 816.6, with a daily decrease of 56.4 and a weekly decrease of 39.9 [2] Spot Market Information - The spot price of the European line (Tolar) was 1545.46 points on March 9, 2026, with a week - on - week increase of 5.61% [2] - The SCFI (European line) was 1618 dollars/TEU on March 13, 2026, with a week - on - week increase of 11.43% [2] European Line Spot Situation - In late March, OA and PA alliances and MSC announced price increases to around 4000 US dollars [3] - In Week 12, MSK offered 2250 US dollars (a week - on - week increase of 400), QA alliance offered 2700 - 2800 US dollars, PA alliance offered 2200 US dollars (a reduction of 200 for large - volume orders), and MSC offered 2740 US dollars (a reduction of 200 for large - volume orders). The average price was 2450 US dollars, equivalent to about 1715 points on the futures market [3] - In Week 13, MSK kept the price at 2250 US dollars, while other shipping companies offered around 2700 - 3000 US dollars [3] - On Tuesday, Maersk opened the booking for the first week of April (Week 14) at 2650 US dollars (a week - on - week increase of 400) [3] - On Wednesday, YML offered 2400 US dollars for the last week of March (2200 US dollars for 3 routes), and MSC offered 2840 US dollars (2640 US dollars for large - volume orders) [3] News - On March 18, CMA CGM raised the emergency fuel surcharge from 150 to 265 US dollars/TEU [4] - On March 18, Iran's national TV reported that parts of the South Pars gas field and the Asaluyeh oil industrial facilities were attacked [4] - On March 19, the US Senate rejected the resolution to limit the use of force against Iran again [4] - On March 19, foreign media reported that Trump was considering sending thousands of US troops to the Middle East and evaluating ground - operation options [4] - On March 19, Iran stated that if the attacks continued, it would expand the scope of strikes to all energy infrastructure of US and Israeli allies [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The current European line is still in the off - season cargo - collection period. The geopolitical impact is mainly reflected in the increase in fuel costs. The subsequent situation requires close tracking of global ship refueling and port congestion. The core variable in the future is the blockade time of the Strait of Hormuz. If it is blocked for a long time, it will disrupt the global supply chain and harm the European economy. The transmission path of this geopolitical event to the European line is complex and highly uncertain. It is recommended to avoid unilateral high - volatility risks and look for arbitrage opportunities from the monthly spread valuation. A 6 - 7 reverse spread can be arranged, but attention should be paid to the poor liquidity of the 07 contract [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Data - **Contract Price and Change**: EC2604 closed at 1970.1, down 2.48%; EC2605 closed at 2215.5, up 0.41%; EC2606 closed at 2440.0, up 0.13%; EC2607 closed at 2522.5, up 0.66%; EC2608 closed at 2368.0, down 0.46%; EC2609 closed at 1728.1, down 1.81%; EC2610 closed at 1581.0, up 0.04%; EC2612 closed at 1868.2, down 0.36% [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of each contract vary, and the open interest of most contracts has decreased. For example, the open interest of EC2604 decreased by 2367, and that of EC2605 decreased by 87 [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads such as EC2604 - 2606, EC2604 - 2605, and EC2606 - 2610 have different changes compared with the previous days and weeks. For example, EC2604 - 2606 was - 469.9, with a day - on - day decrease of 53.1 and a week - on - week decrease of 212.3 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market Situation - **Spot Price Index**: The spot price index of the European line (OCEAN) on March 9 was 1545.46 points, up 5.61% from the previous period; the SCFI (European line) on March 13 was 1618 US dollars/TEU, up 11.43% from the previous period [2]. - **Shipping Company Price Announcements**: In late March, OA and PA alliances and MSC announced price increases to around 4000 US dollars. In Week 12, the average price was 2450 US dollars, equivalent to about 1715 points on the futures market. In Week 13, MSK's price remained flat at 2250 US dollars, and other shipping companies quoted around 2700 - 3000 US dollars [3]. 3.3 News - **War - related Statements**: On March 15, the Iranian Foreign Minister said that the end of the war depends on two conditions. The Israeli military spokesman said that the military operation against Iran will last at least three more weeks. On March 16, Trump warned of a new strike on Iran's oil export hub, Kharg Island [4]. - **Multinational Convoy Plan**: On March 16, US media reported that the US government plans to announce a multinational joint convoy in the Strait of Hormuz as early as this week, but many countries are hesitant to participate before the end of hostilities [5].