Core Insights - The report indicates a neutral valuation for the current contracts, with future price movements dependent on the European line's cargo pricing adjustments and fuel cost fluctuations [3] - The report highlights that the 10 contracts are influenced by fuel cost support, with significant geopolitical risks affecting market stability [3] - The report notes that the market is gradually entering a delivery logic phase, suggesting potential opportunities for basis recovery [3] Market Data Summary - The EC2604 contract closed at 1957.4, showing a 0.69% increase, while EC2605 saw a significant rise of 8.57% to 2378.8 [2] - The EC2606 contract increased by 11.17% to 2692.9, and EC2608 rose by 7.87% to 2564.0, indicating a positive trend in the market [2] - The SCFI index for the European line reported a 1.11% increase to 1636 USD/TEU, reflecting a strong upward movement compared to previous periods [4] Spot Market Conditions - In Week 13, the MSK price opened at 2250 USD, with PA reported between 2400-2500 USD, and some voyages at 2200 USD [4] - The average spot price is estimated to be around 1700-1800 points, with COSCO announcing an increase in April prices to 5100 USD [4] - In Week 14, the MSK price rose to 2650 USD, marking a 400 USD increase from the previous week [4] Geopolitical Context - Recent reports indicate tensions in the Middle East, with attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure and ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran [5] - The geopolitical situation remains a significant factor influencing market dynamics, particularly regarding fuel costs and contract valuations [3][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach [2] Core View - It is recommended to wait and see, with the 04 contract gradually entering the delivery logic, and observe whether there are opportunities for basis repair. Although historically, the 6 - 7 and 6 - 8 reverse spreads are reasonably valued, it still depends on the duration of the geopolitical situation. If the issue is resolved in May, the current structure is also reasonable [2] Data Summary Futures Data - EC2604: yesterday's closing price was 2004.5, up 3.39%, with a basis of - 459.0, trading volume of 29117, and an open interest of 23452, down 1151 [2] - EC2605: yesterday's closing price was 2240.9, up 3.03%, with a basis of - 695.4, trading volume of 1452, and an open interest of 1928, down 29 [2] - EC2606: yesterday's closing price was 2453.0, up 2.45%, with a basis of - 907.5, trading volume of 9112, and an open interest of 14148, down 235 [2] - EC2607: yesterday's closing price was 2549.8, up 1.97%, with a basis of - 1004.3, trading volume of 171, and an open interest of 781, up 6 [2] - EC2608: yesterday's closing price was 2401.0, up 1.09%, with a basis of - 855.5, trading volume of 708, and an open interest of 2776, down 92 [2] - EC2609: yesterday's closing price was 1751.9, up 2.04%, with a basis of - 206.4, trading volume of 56, and an open interest of 534, down 42 [2] - EC2610: yesterday's closing price was 1580.0, up 0.77%, with a basis of - 34.5, trading volume of 2403, and an open interest of 7955, down 517 [2] - EC2612: yesterday's closing price was 1801.0, down 0.72%, with a basis of - 255.5, trading volume of 71, and an open interest of 405, up 2 [2] Month - spread Data - EC2604 - 2606: previous day was - 448.5, previous two days was - 455.6, previous three days was - 469.9, daily change was 7.1, weekly change was - 111.8 [2] - EC2604 - 2605: previous day was - 236.4, previous two days was - 236.2, previous three days was - 245.4, daily change was - 0.2, weekly change was - 57.3 [2] - EC2606 - 2610: previous day was 873.0, previous two days was 826.4, previous three days was 859.0, daily change was 46.6, weekly change was 79.6 [2] Spot Index Data - SCFIS (European Line): updated weekly on Mondays, announced on 2026/3/9, the current value was 1545.46 points, up 5.61% from the previous period, and the previous period was down 7.00% [2] - SCFI (European Line): updated weekly, announced on 2026/3/13, the current value was 1618 dollars/TEU, up 11.43% from the previous period, and the previous period was up 2.25% [2] European Line Spot Situation - In late March, OA and PA alliances, and MSC announced price increases to around 4000 US dollars - Week 12: MSK quoted 2250 US dollars (up 400 from the previous week), OA alliance quoted 2700 - 2800 US dollars, PA alliance quoted 2200 US dollars (large - ticket price down 200), MSC quoted 2740 US dollars (large - ticket price down 200), with an average of 2450 US dollars, equivalent to about 1715 points on the futures market - Week 13: MSK's price remained flat at 2250 US dollars, and other shipping companies quoted around 2700 - 3000 US dollars - On Tuesday, Maersk opened bookings for the first week of April (Week 14) at 2650 US dollars (up 400 from the previous week) [3] Related News - On 3/17, Iran stated that it could legally attack countries that allow the US and Israel to use their territories for aggression - On 3/17, the Iranian Speaker said that the Strait of Hormuz would not return to the pre - war state - On 3/17, White House economic advisor Hassett said that oil tankers had started passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the Iran war would last for weeks rather than months [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The current European line is still in the off - season cargo - collection period. The geopolitical impact is mainly reflected in the increase in fuel costs. The subsequent situation requires close tracking of global ship refueling and port congestion. The core variable in the future is the blockade time of the Strait of Hormuz. If it is blocked for a long time, it will disrupt the global supply chain and harm the European economy. The transmission path of this geopolitical event to the European line is complex and highly uncertain. It is recommended to avoid unilateral high - volatility risks and look for arbitrage opportunities from the monthly spread valuation. A 6 - 7 reverse spread can be arranged, but attention should be paid to the poor liquidity of the 07 contract [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Data - **Contract Price and Change**: EC2604 closed at 1970.1, down 2.48%; EC2605 closed at 2215.5, up 0.41%; EC2606 closed at 2440.0, up 0.13%; EC2607 closed at 2522.5, up 0.66%; EC2608 closed at 2368.0, down 0.46%; EC2609 closed at 1728.1, down 1.81%; EC2610 closed at 1581.0, up 0.04%; EC2612 closed at 1868.2, down 0.36% [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of each contract vary, and the open interest of most contracts has decreased. For example, the open interest of EC2604 decreased by 2367, and that of EC2605 decreased by 87 [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads such as EC2604 - 2606, EC2604 - 2605, and EC2606 - 2610 have different changes compared with the previous days and weeks. For example, EC2604 - 2606 was - 469.9, with a day - on - day decrease of 53.1 and a week - on - week decrease of 212.3 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market Situation - **Spot Price Index**: The spot price index of the European line (OCEAN) on March 9 was 1545.46 points, up 5.61% from the previous period; the SCFI (European line) on March 13 was 1618 US dollars/TEU, up 11.43% from the previous period [2]. - **Shipping Company Price Announcements**: In late March, OA and PA alliances and MSC announced price increases to around 4000 US dollars. In Week 12, the average price was 2450 US dollars, equivalent to about 1715 points on the futures market. In Week 13, MSK's price remained flat at 2250 US dollars, and other shipping companies quoted around 2700 - 3000 US dollars [3]. 3.3 News - **War - related Statements**: On March 15, the Iranian Foreign Minister said that the end of the war depends on two conditions. The Israeli military spokesman said that the military operation against Iran will last at least three more weeks. On March 16, Trump warned of a new strike on Iran's oil export hub, Kharg Island [4]. - **Multinational Convoy Plan**: On March 16, US media reported that the US government plans to announce a multinational joint convoy in the Strait of Hormuz as early as this week, but many countries are hesitant to participate before the end of hostilities [5].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The market was oscillating on Thursday, waiting for new drivers [3] - The EC2512 contract is neutrally valued and will gradually move towards the delivery logic, with a significant decrease in open interest [3] - The EC2602 contract is expected to mainly follow the spot trend in the short - term. Before the peak season in December is realized, it's hard for the market to believe January is still a peak season. If the peak season is gradually realized later, the EC2602 contract may have more upside potential [3] - The EC2604 contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies and is more likely to oscillate in the short - term [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Data - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1775.7, with a 0.70% increase, a basis of - 418.0, a trading volume of 4067, an open interest of 8060, and an open interest change of - 1508 [2] - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1631.0, with a 0.55% decrease, a basis of - 273.3, a trading volume of 32775, an open interest of 42029, and an open interest change of 1785 [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1163.0, with a 0.03% increase, a basis of 194.7, a trading volume of 3097, an open interest of 16014, and an open interest change of 70 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1381.1, with a 0.07% decrease, a basis of - 23.4, a trading volume of 218, an open interest of 1575, and an open interest change of - 7 [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1505.0, with a 1.00% increase, a basis of - 147.3, a trading volume of 92, an open interest of 1224, and an open interest change of 12 [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1109.0, with a 0.09% decrease, a basis of 248.7, a trading volume of 382, an open interest of 2493, and an open interest change of - 27 [2] Month - spread Data - EC2512 - 2604: The previous day's month - spread was 612.7, with a daily - on - daily increase of 12.1 and a weekly - on - weekly increase of 35.3 [2] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's month - spread was 144.7, with a daily - on - daily increase of 21.5 and a weekly - on - weekly increase of 31.9 [2] - EC2602 - 2604: The previous day's month - spread was 468.0, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 9.4 and a weekly - on - weekly increase of 3.4 [2] Index Data - SCFIS (European Line): Updated weekly, announced on 2025/11/17, the current value is 1357.67 points, with a - 9.78% change from the previous period and a 24.50% change from two periods ago [2] - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly, announced on 2025/11/14, the current value is 1417 dollars/TEU, with a 7.11% increase from the previous period and a - 1.56% change from two periods ago [2] - CCFI: Updated weekly, announced on 2025/11/14, the current value is 1403.64 points, with a 2.69% increase from the previous period and a 3.25% increase from two periods ago [2] - NCFI: Updated weekly, announced on 2025/11/14, the current value is 979.34 points, with a 7.42% increase from the previous period and a - 5.58% change from two periods ago [2] Recent Spot Situation of European Line - Week 48: Currently, MSK's opening rate is 2000 dollars, PA mainly follows the previous rate, OA has not adjusted the price yet, with an average of 2230 dollars (equivalent to about 1560 points on the futures price) [3] - 12 - month price increase notices have been issued by MSK and MSC, and other shipping companies may issue them successively this week [3] - Week 49: The offline quotes are between 2200 - 2500 dollars. On Tuesday, MSK opened at 2500 dollars for the first week of December, in line with expectations. MSC reduced the price to 2465 dollars, and HMM reduced it to 2506 dollars [3] - Week 50: On Thursday, Maersk added an extra ship to the second week of December with a capacity of 13000 TEU [3] News - On 11/21, the Israeli Defense Minister said that the tunnel network of Hamas in Gaza must be destroyed, and the Israeli army is working continuously to complete this task [3] - On 11/21, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran said that the conflict could break out at any time and has raised the combat readiness level [3] - On 11/21, the US Treasury Department strengthened sanctions on the oil network supporting the Iranian army [3]