机构：中金公司 研究员：罗欣雨/张文杰/冯启斌/杨鑫 风险 零担市场需求低于预期，行业价格竞争加剧，公司成本费用控制不及预期。 公司坚持优化货量结构，以小票业务驱动增长。1H25 公司零担货运总量同比增长6.2%至682 万吨（Q2 货量同比增长6%至378 万吨），其中70kg以下迷你小票货量同比+23.9%，70-300kg 小票货量同比 +14.0%。受小票货物驱动，总票数同比+25.2%至9,060 万票（Q2 票数同比+23%至5,011万票），票均重 则由去年同期的89kg 降至75kg。公司网络规模持续扩张，截至1H25 货运合作商及代理商总数已超 38,000 家，同比增长约23%。 2Q 价格竞争致毛利承压，关注Q4 旺季价格修复进程。2Q25 受价格竞争影响，公司零担服务总单价同 比-2%至805 元/吨。成本端，2Q25 公司单吨成本为680 元/吨、同比持平，其中干线运输/分拨/增值服 务/派送成本分别同比-5%/持平/+45%/-1%。干线运输成本主要受益于油价下降、线路优化和新能源运力 应用，增值服务及派送成本的上升则主要受货运票数增加的结构性影响。受价格竞争影响，2Q 单位毛 利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC forecasts that Aneng Logistics (09956) will achieve adjusted net profits of 1.01 billion and 1.22 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to adjusted P/E ratios of 10.0x and 8.2x for those years, indicating a potential upside of 18.9% from the current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue reached 2.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, with a gross profit of 410 million yuan, up 7% year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 226 million yuan, reflecting a 20% year-on-year growth, while the adjusted net profit was 242 million yuan, up 16% year-on-year, achieving a record high adjusted net profit margin of 9.4% [2] - The company managed to achieve good profit growth despite a weak market demand and high profit base, supported by a structural adjustment in cargo weight [2] Group 2: Cargo Structure and Pricing - The total volume of LTL (Less Than Truckload) freight in Q1 increased by 6% to 3.045 million tons, with mini parcels (under 70kg) and small parcels (70-300kg) growing by 27% and 12% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The average price per ton for LTL services rose by 3% to 850 yuan/ton, while the unit cost also increased by 3% to 715 yuan/ton, with specific service costs varying [4] Group 3: Competitive Position and Growth - The company saw a 67% year-on-year decrease in lost items per 100,000 parcels, with complaints also declining, indicating improved service quality [5] - The average delivery time shortened by 7% to approximately 65 hours, enhancing the company's competitive edge and attracting more franchisees, which grew by about 22% to 36,000 [5] Group 4: Liquidity and Shareholder Returns - As of Q1, the company had cash and cash equivalents of 2.01 billion yuan, a 50% year-on-year increase, indicating strong liquidity [6] - The company plans to disclose its dividend strategy after the mid-term results, with expectations for continued shareholder returns due to its leading position in the express delivery sector and ability to adapt pricing and volume strategies [6]