Core Viewpoint - Honda and Nissan are resuming cooperation discussions after a breakdown in their previous merger talks, driven by increasing economic pressures and changes in leadership at Nissan [1][2]. Group 1: Cooperation Context - Honda's president, Takahiro Hachigo, indicated that while a full merger is not currently on the table, collaboration with Nissan and Mitsubishi is actively being pursued [1][2]. - The automotive industry is facing significant challenges due to U.S. tariffs, which have prompted both companies to consider joint strategies to mitigate financial impacts [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Pressures - The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on imported vehicles in April, with additional tariffs on key components like engines, leading to a projected 70% decrease in Honda's consolidated net profit for the fiscal year ending March 2026 [3]. - Nissan is expected to face a profit reduction of up to 450 billion yen due to these tariffs, highlighting the urgent need for cost-cutting measures [3]. Group 3: Leadership Changes - The change in Nissan's leadership from Makoto Uchida to Ivan Espinosa is seen as a factor in restoring trust and facilitating decision-making within the organization [2][3]. - Regular meetings between the executives of both companies have resumed since April, indicating a thaw in relations [2]. Group 4: Future Collaboration - Discussions are ongoing regarding potential collaboration in electric vehicles and autonomous driving technologies, with Mitsubishi joining the talks [2][3]. - Both companies are exploring the possibility of supplying Honda and LG's vehicle batteries produced in North America post-2028, as well as joint research in software technologies [3]. Group 5: Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that achieving scale through collaboration with Nissan and Mitsubishi could improve Honda's profitability in the medium term [4]. - There is a growing sentiment among investors that collaboration among Japanese automakers is essential to compete against threats from Chinese companies and the shift towards electrification [4].

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 董必政 受制于网络小贷牌照的杠杆限制，京东自营贷款规模也将面临天花板。 2025年1月，国家金融监管总局颁布了《小额贷款公司监督管理暂行办法》，旨在规范小额贷款公司的外部融资行为。该办法严格规定了"1+4"融资杠杆倍数 指标，即通常情况下，小额贷款公司的杠杆倍数被限制在5倍以内。 相比之下，消费金融公司的杠杆倍数上限则可达到25倍。这意味着在同等资本规模下，消费金融公司的业务规模能够是小贷公司的5倍。 对比捷信消金、京东小贷业务的财务数据，我们可以发现京东收购捷信能拥有更高的天花板。 2024年1~9月，京东盛际小贷实现营业收入为12.78亿元，净利润为1.69亿元；而2018年巅峰期的捷信消金可实现营收185.16亿元，净利润可达13.96亿元。 此外，消金牌照带来的高杠杆，可以带来规模效应以降低边际成本，最终形成"牌照壁垒→规模优势→数据积累→风控优化"的闭环竞争力。 一、牌照打开天花板 在收购捷信消费金融之前，京东的信贷展业（京东白条、金条）主要依靠小贷公司牌照，即京东盛际小贷。 头图 | AI制图 2025年5月26日，国家金融监督管理总局天津监管局一纸批复，让"捷信消 ...

核心观点 ⚫ 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 维持买入评级，调整目标价至 56.04 港元。贝壳作为国内房产经纪龙头，不断塑造 平台价值以强化市占优势，在地产修复周期中向上弹性较大，并且 "三翼"业务具 备发展潜力。根据 25 年一季度业绩公告，我们调整了各项业务营收增速及贡献利润 率，以及期间费用率，调整公司 25-26 年 Non-GAAP EPS 预测值为 2.06、2.68 元 （原预测为 2.06、2.44 元），并引入 27 年预测值 3.56 元。参考 25 年可比公司调 整后平均 25 倍 PE，对应目标价 56.04 港元（1 港元=0.919 人民币）。 风险提示：房地产销售不及预期。佣金率不及预期。家装、租赁业务发展不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 77,777 | 93,457 | 110,080 | 128,165 | 146,106 | | 同比增长 (%) | 28.2% | 20.2% | 17.8% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.98 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 148%, reaching 2.03 billion RMB. The revenue for the same period was 29.76 billion RMB, up 17% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 7.29 billion RMB, an 8% increase year-on-year, although net profit decreased by 27% to 410 million RMB due to substantial inventory impairment losses [1][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from integrated production and scale advantages, with new capacity gradually coming online, which is anticipated to drive performance growth [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of 29.76 billion RMB and a net profit of 2.03 billion RMB, with a proposed dividend of 0.35 RMB per share [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed a revenue of 8.18 billion RMB, a 10% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 450 million RMB, up 46% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 reported a revenue of 7.29 billion RMB, an 8% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 27% [1][3]. Market Conditions - The average prices for various chemical products, including butanol and DMF, declined in 2024 due to oversupply, impacting revenue from the new materials and basic chemicals segments [2][3]. - The company’s new nylon 6 project and improved capacity utilization contributed to a 27% revenue increase in the new materials segment [2]. Cost Management - The cost side of the coal chemical sector showed improvement in the first quarter of 2025, with significant price drops in raw materials like power coal and lanthanum [3]. - The company has initiated new projects, including a 400,000-ton organic silicon project, which is expected to contribute to future revenue growth [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 estimates net profits of 2.0 billion, 2.3 billion, and 2.6 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.07, 1.22, and 1.39 RMB [4][6]. - The report assigns a 14x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's integrated advantages and potential from new projects, leading to a target price of 14.98 RMB [4].