Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Beer is leveraging the Mid-Autumn Festival to boost sales with new product offerings that combine quality and trendy designs, appealing to consumer preferences for gift-giving and celebration [1][2][6]. Product Offerings - Qingdao Beer has launched a three-color gift box containing "Classic White Beer," "Osmanthus White Beer," and "Cherry Blossom White Beer," each with unique flavor profiles, which has become popular among consumers [2][4]. - The "Classic 8+2 Gift Box" includes 8 cans of classic beer and 2 cans of white beer, catering to diverse consumer tastes and providing an economical option [6]. Market Performance - The "Classic White Beer" has become the best-selling Chinese white beer globally, winning multiple international awards and being sold in over 40 countries [4]. - Online sales data shows a nearly 100% positive feedback rate for the three-color gift box, indicating strong consumer satisfaction and high repurchase intent [4]. Consumer Trends - The new products are particularly favored by younger consumers and women, with high sales reported in supermarkets as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches [4][6]. - The brand's marketing strategy includes prominent displays of festive-themed products, enhancing visibility and attracting customers during the holiday season [6]. Brand Positioning - Qingdao Beer is positioned as a national brand that combines traditional brewing techniques with modern trends, aiming to enhance consumer experiences during festive occasions [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Tsingtao Brewery, with a target price of RMB 88.00 based on a current price of RMB 69.50 [2]. Core Insights - Tsingtao Brewery's profitability continues to improve, with H1 2025 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching RMB 20.491 billion and RMB 3.904 billion, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.11% and 7.21% year-on-year. The net profit margin improved to 19.05% [3][11]. - The company has demonstrated resilience in sales volume, achieving 4.732 million kiloliters, which is a 2.3% increase, outperforming the industry average decline of 0.3% [11]. - The product mix is optimizing, with mid-to-high-end sales volumes accounting for 42.1% of total sales, indicating a clear growth pattern favoring premium products [3][12]. Revenue Analysis - The beer business revenue increased by 1.9% in H1 2025, with a slight decline in ton price of 0.3%. However, Q2 showed a positive trend in ton price, indicating price stabilization [4][12]. - Regional performance varied, with Shandong showing solid fundamentals and East China emerging as a new growth engine, achieving revenue growth of 9.94% [4][12]. Profitability and Cost Management - Gross margin reached 43.7% in H1 2025, with a further increase to 45.84% in Q2, driven by lower unit costs due to falling raw material prices [5][13]. - The operating cash flow/net profit ratio stands at 123%, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 60%, providing reliable returns in uncertain markets [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the strategic resolve of Tsingtao Brewery in adapting to industry changes, such as the rise of on-demand retail and craft beer diversification. The company is well-positioned to benefit from consumers' renewed preference for high-quality products [14]. - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is RMB 3.52, RMB 3.75, and RMB 3.95, respectively, with a maintained target price of RMB 88 based on a 25x PE multiple for 2025 [14].