哈喽，大家好，我是标叔。 今天我带大家来了解一下美国和印度之间在棉花和关税方面的最新动态。 2025年下半年，印度的处境可以说是"冰火两重天"： 8月初，由于美印贸易谈判陷入僵局，美国首先对印度商品加征了25%的关税，涵盖了电子零部件、化工品、药品原料等十多个重要的出口品类。 几天后，美国再度出手，以"印度持续购买俄罗斯能源"为理由，追加了25%的关税。这次加征让印度的出口商品面临的关税总额超过了50%，整个印度的商 业环境完全崩塌。 一方面，美国接连推出了两轮关税，导致印度出口企业订单减少，工厂裁员；而另一方面，11月10日，美国和俄罗斯同时送上了"利好大礼包"——美国承诺 下调关税，贸易协议即将达成，俄罗斯则主动提供核技术支持。 这场围绕印度的大国博弈中，最重要的并不是核技术或石油订单，而是印度45百万纺织行业从业者的生计，以及莫迪政府的执政根基。 2025年8月，印度遭遇了美国两轮关税的重击，全国上下为之震惊。 据《印度时报》报道，印度的商界纷纷联合起来向政府施压，直言"这两轮关税几乎断了印度对美出口的生命线"。 更令印度难以接受的是，购买俄罗斯能源的并不仅仅是印度。欧盟的多个国家、土耳其等也都在继续进 ...

Core Insights - The trade negotiations between the US and India are nearing completion, with the US planning to reduce average tariffs on certain Indian goods from nearly 50% to around 15% [1][3] - The negotiations are influenced by China's role, as India's adjustments in trade are seen as a balancing act between the US and Russia [1][5] Trade Conditions - The most notable condition is the significant reduction in tariffs, which would greatly benefit India's manufacturing sector [3] - The US is demanding that India gradually reduce its procurement of Russian oil and open its market to US agricultural products, such as non-GMO corn and soybean meal [3][5] - Since August, Indian state-owned refineries have been slowing down their purchases of Russian oil, indicating a shift in energy procurement strategies [3][7] Agricultural Impact - The reduction in tariffs could lead to increased exports of Indian textiles, engineering machinery, and chemical products to the US, potentially boosting India's export figures for the fiscal year 2025 [5] - The decrease in Chinese purchases of US corn has created an opportunity for India to step in as a new buyer, facilitating the trade negotiations [5] Risks and Considerations - Reducing reliance on discounted Russian oil may compress profit margins for Indian refineries, leading to potential domestic price increases [7] - Opening the market too much to US agricultural products could disrupt India's own agricultural system [7] - The agreement includes provisions for periodic reviews to mitigate risks associated with sudden policy changes from the US [7] Conclusion - The negotiations highlight the interconnected nature of modern international trade, where shifts in one country's purchasing decisions can accelerate negotiations between others [9] - If the agreement is finalized, India must remain vigilant about the broader implications of these changes in the context of global power dynamics [9]

Core Viewpoint - The United States is reportedly considering reducing tariffs on Indian exports from 50% to 15%-16%, which may lead to a trade agreement between the two countries, but India would need to cut its oil imports from Russia as part of this deal [1][3]. Trade Agreement Developments - Recent reports indicate that the U.S. and India are nearing a trade agreement, with potential tariff reductions and increased import quotas for non-GMO corn from the U.S. [1] - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on most Indian goods, resulting in a significant decline in Indian exports to the U.S., which fell to $5.5 billion in September 2025, a 20.3% decrease month-over-month [1][7]. Impact on Indian Exports - Indian exports to the U.S. have been on a downward trend for four consecutive months, with a notable drop from $8.8 billion in May to $5.5 billion in September 2025 [7][8]. - Key sectors affected by the tariff increases include textiles, gems and jewelry, engineering products, and chemicals, highlighting the adverse impact of the tariff regime [8]. Economic Outlook - The Oxford Economics report indicates that the negative risks faced by developing countries have somewhat diminished, primarily due to reduced tariff concerns, suggesting that a severe trade war has been avoided [1][8]. - Despite the tariff risks, most economists surveyed believe that domestic factors such as fiscal policy and domestic demand are more significant influences on GDP forecasts than trade barriers [8][9]. Energy Import Considerations - India's Ministry of External Affairs emphasized the importance of maintaining consumer interests in energy amidst volatile market conditions, indicating that any decision to halt Russian oil imports would require a stable energy market plan [4]. - The U.S. has previously raised tariffs on Indian goods due to India's oil imports from Russia, which have significantly increased since 2022, making India the second-largest buyer of Russian crude oil [3][4].