Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jinlei Co., Ltd. (300443.SZ) with an expected revenue growth of 41.8% in 2025 and a projected net profit of 409 million yuan [1][7]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant growth in both revenue and profit in the first half of 2025, with revenue increasing by 79.85% year-on-year, primarily driven by the substantial rise in shipments of wind power shaft products [2][4]. - The dual-driven strategy of "casting + forging" is expected to enhance profitability as the company continues to expand its market presence both domestically and internationally, particularly in the offshore wind power sector [4][3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2,789 million yuan, 3,519 million yuan, and 4,119 million yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 41.8%, 26.2%, and 17.1% [1][4]. - **Net Profit**: Expected net profits for the same years are 409 million yuan, 569 million yuan, and 713 million yuan, with growth rates of 136.9%, 39.1%, and 25.2% respectively [1][4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.28 yuan, 1.78 yuan, and 2.23 yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 21.6, 15.6, and 12.4 [1][7]. Business Development Summary - The company has successfully increased its casting capacity and expanded its market reach, establishing strategic partnerships with major global wind turbine manufacturers such as GE and Siemens Gamesa [3][4]. - The growth in the wind power casting business is particularly notable, with sales revenue reaching 280 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 276.06% [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][6][9] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in its financial performance, with a revenue increase of 79.85% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 1.283 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 153.34%, amounting to 188 million yuan [5] - The wind power spindle business has been a key driver of revenue growth, achieving 870 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 93.60% [5] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 28.5 billion yuan in 2025, 37 billion yuan in 2026, and 45 billion yuan in 2027 [5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 23.47%, an increase of 2.50 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 14.63%, up by 4.26 percentage points [5] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 778 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.98% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 54.16% [5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.34 yuan in 2025, 1.88 yuan in 2026, and 2.34 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20.33, 14.45, and 11.60 respectively [5][7] Business Segment Analysis - The core business of wind power forging has adapted to the trend of larger wind turbines, with sales revenue of 589 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.33% [5] - The wind power casting segment has also seen rapid growth, with sales revenue reaching 280 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 276.06% [5] - The company has expanded its production capabilities for large wind turbine components, enhancing its competitive position in the offshore wind power market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for 1H25, with revenue and net profit significantly exceeding market expectations, driven by improvements in the casting business and increased sales in wind power products [1][2]. Financial Performance - For 1H25, the company achieved revenue of 1.283 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.85%, and a net profit of 179 million yuan, up 176.89% year-on-year [1]. - In 2Q25, revenue reached 778 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 69.97% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 54.16%. The net profit for this quarter was 126 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 205.07% and a quarter-on-quarter rise of 136.49% [1]. - The casting business turned profitable in 1H25, with significant contributions from wind power shaft products, which generated 870 million yuan in revenue, a substantial increase of 93.6% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 24.79% [1]. Business Segments - The company’s forging shaft business also saw considerable revenue growth, aligning with industry trends. In 2Q25, wind casting shaft shipments reached approximately 27,000 tons, the highest quarterly shipment since the business's inception, contributing to a net profit of 19 million yuan for the subsidiary Shandong Jinlei Heavy Industry [1]. - Other precision shaft businesses generated 182 million yuan in revenue in 1H25, reflecting an 11.6% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 34.2% [1]. - The assembly business, which was previously established, reported revenue of 137 million yuan in 1H25, with a gross margin of 8.4% [1]. Development Trends - The wind power casting business is expected to benefit from the global increase in offshore wind energy, with anticipated production growth in 2025. The business achieved profitability in 2Q25, and further growth is expected due to domestic and international market demand [2]. - Other precision shaft businesses are projected to maintain rapid growth as the company continues to expand its downstream market presence [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has raised its 2025 profit forecast by 5.5% to 430 million yuan due to better-than-expected profitability in the wind power casting segment. The 2026 profit forecast remains unchanged [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 for 2025 and 16.6 for 2026. The target price has been increased by 16.0% to 29.53 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 5.8% from the current stock price [3].

Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, with operating revenue reaching 1.283 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.85%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 188 million yuan, up 153.34% [1] - The company aims to strengthen its leading position in the wind power main shaft sector while innovating in other casting and forging products, contributing to substantial operational growth [1] Financial Performance - Operating revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1.283 billion yuan, a 79.85% increase year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 188 million yuan, reflecting a 153.34% growth [1] - The company proposed a cash dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [1] Wind Power Sector - The core business of wind power forging shafts generated sales revenue of 589 million yuan, a 47.33% increase year-on-year [1] - The company has adapted to the trend of larger wind turbines, covering a full range of forging models from 1.5MW to 9.5MW [1] Offshore Wind Power Development - The company has increased investment in the research and production of offshore wind power casting products, achieving rapid growth with sales revenue of 280 million yuan, a significant increase of 276.06% [2] - The company has established strategic partnerships with major global wind turbine manufacturers, enhancing its market position [2] Other Casting and Forging Products - The company provides high-quality products and services across various industries, including shipbuilding, energy, cement equipment, and mining machinery, with sales revenue from other precision shaft products reaching 182 million yuan [2] - The company maintains a stable growth in industrial casting and forging products, expanding its market share through effective production management and quality control [3]