4Q2025 食品饮料基金持仓分析 食品饮料 ■ 证券研究报告 因 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 分析师 皇立省 SAC 证书编号: S0160523090004 wuwd01@ctsec.com 分析师 任务营 SAC 证书编号: S0160524010001 renjx@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《国标加速推出,利好行业规范和集中 度提升 》 2026-01-23 2. 《牛肉进口政策落地,肉奶共振利好牧 2026-01-05 = 3. 《进口反补贴落地,利好国产替代》 2025-12-23 筹码再优化，大众品阶段性优于白酒 核心观点 � 风险提示: 消费力恢复不及预期，行业竞争加剧，食品安全问题等。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明! t a production and the result of the first and the states of the states of the see of 行业投资策略报告 / 2026.01.29 公募基金食饮板块减配,超配比例持平。4Q2025 季末基金食品饮料板 * 块重仓持股比例为 6%，环比下降 0.3pct。全行业中，食饮板 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities highlights significant volatility in global risk assets due to concerns over tightening overseas liquidity and discussions surrounding an "AI bubble" [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Global risk assets have experienced substantial fluctuations this week, influenced by a lack of economic data, frequent hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, and rising liquidity pressures in the money market due to government shutdown and fiscal constraints [1] - The strong dollar has suppressed global stock markets and commodity prices, with technology-heavy indices like Nikkei 225, Korean stock index, and Nasdaq leading the decline [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The probability of overseas liquidity tightening evolving into systemic risk is low, as solutions from the Federal Reserve and bipartisan negotiations to reopen the government are progressing, which may gradually alleviate external disturbances on risk appetite [2] - If the U.S. government shutdown ends as expected in mid-November and more economic data is released, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts will be recalibrated, potentially creating a window for global recovery [3] Group 3: AI Industry Analysis - The current discussions around the "AI bubble" have caused some disturbances in the domestic AI industry chain, but Industrial Securities believes that AI's empowerment of traditional industries is still in its early stages, making it incomparable to the internet bubble of 1999-2000 [4] - The development logic of the AI industry is clear, with major global tech companies continuously defining their AI strategies, and the fundamentals of leading companies in the U.S. stock market remain strong due to ongoing R&D investments and capital expenditures [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes AI as a key driver for national competition and technological innovation, indicating that the AI industry chain will be a focus area with favorable prospects next year [5] - The year-end market is seen as an important window for positioning in sectors expected to perform well in the coming year, with a focus on cyclical sectors such as steel, chemicals, construction materials, and new consumption [6][7] - High-growth sectors expected to see net profit growth of over 30% next year include AI hardware, new energy, and military industries, while sectors with expected growth of 10%-30% include pharmaceuticals and AI downstream applications [7][8]