各方观点来看，美联储9月降息大概是"板上钉钉"。 美联储决定要不要降息，主要看通胀和就业数据。 从7月的数据来看，美国通胀还算稳住（7月CPI同比上涨2.7%），但是就业数据崩塌（7月失业率升至4.2%，创下近3年新低），意味着美国老百姓当前的 消费较弱。 作者 | 雅宁 考虑全球资产配置的，该行动了！ 这里的全球资产配置，指的是香港保险。 今年6月的香港保险投保热潮过后，原以为市场会冷清一段时间，没想到，8月热度依旧不减！ 而在9月18日之前，香港保险将迎来又一个黄金配置期。 为什么这么说？ 因为美联储9月大概率会开启新一轮降息。 最新数据显示，9月降息25个基点的概率为84.6%。 美国向来是消费立国，老百姓没工作手里就没钱，消费起不来，经济增长面临压力，所以这种时候就需要美联储降息来刺激经济。 上周三，美国财政部长贝森特"大胆开麦"，如果美联储是在5月或6月份看到修正过后的就业数据，可能他们当时就启动降息了，因此9月份降息50个基点 的概率非常大。此话一出，美联储降息的预测概率已经飙升至100%。 那么，美联储降息对配置香港保险有什么影响呢？ 1、降息会影响港险的优惠政策。 香港采取的是联系汇率制度，只 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Insurance Authority has set a cap on the demonstration interest rates for participating insurance policies, limiting HKD policies to 6% and non-HKD policies to 6.5% starting July 1. However, industry experts indicate that this cap does not necessarily limit actual investor returns, as actual yields may still vary based on market conditions and other factors [1][2]. Summary by Sections Regulation Changes - The new regulations aim to provide a more realistic expectation of future returns for customers, as the demonstration interest rates are primarily used for illustrating potential benefits during sales [2]. - The cap on demonstration rates is seen as a measure to bring rationality back to the market amid increasing competition among insurance companies [2]. Impact on Actual Returns - Experts assert that the limitation on demonstration rates does not equate to a limitation on actual returns. If insurance companies can deliver high returns, regulatory bodies would not restrict the dividend levels offered to clients [2]. - A comparison of expected cash values for a specific participating insurance product shows negligible differences in cash value for the first 30-40 years, with a slight decline in later years [3]. Currency and Legal Considerations - The fluctuation of exchange rates poses a significant risk for mainland investors, as many Hong Kong insurance policies are denominated in USD or HKD. This can affect both the cost of premiums and the actual returns when converted back to RMB [4]. - Legal differences between Hong Kong and mainland China may complicate dispute resolution for policyholders, making it challenging for mainland clients to assert their rights in case of disputes [4]. Recommendations for Investors - Investors are advised to consider the stability and solvency of insurance companies, as well as their historical dividend realization rates, to ensure the safety of their funds and maximize policy benefits [5]. - For those with short-term liquidity needs or low risk tolerance regarding currency fluctuations, purchasing Hong Kong insurance may not be advisable. However, it could be a reasonable option for individuals planning to study or live abroad long-term [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of the demonstration interest rate cap for participating insurance in Hong Kong has raised concerns, but industry experts clarify that actual returns will not be affected by this change [1][2]. Regulatory Changes - The Hong Kong Insurance Authority has set the demonstration interest rate cap for HKD participating policies at 6% and for non-HKD policies at 6.5%, effective from July 1, 2025 [1][2]. - This adjustment is seen as a prudent regulatory measure to ensure fair marketing practices and prevent overly optimistic return predictions by insurance companies [4]. Actual Returns - The average dividend realization rate in the Hong Kong insurance industry is over 90%, indicating that the actual returns are generally stable despite the cap on demonstration rates [2]. - The demonstration interest rate cap only applies to new policies sold after July 1, 2025, and does not affect existing policies [2]. Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape in Hong Kong's insurance market has led to some companies making unrealistic return promises, which could mislead consumers [4][5]. - The demand for insurance products from mainland Chinese customers remains strong, with new premiums reaching HKD 219.8 billion in 2024, a 22% increase year-on-year [6]. Investment Appeal - Hong Kong insurance products are attractive to mainland consumers due to their flexible asset allocation and higher potential returns compared to domestic products [7][8]. - The current yield on USD-denominated assets significantly exceeds that of RMB-denominated assets, enhancing the appeal of Hong Kong insurance policies [7]. Challenges and Considerations - There are concerns regarding the high proportion of non-guaranteed dividends in participating insurance, which may lead to uncertainty in future policy returns [9]. - Issues such as the difficulty of repatriating dividends or claims back to mainland China need to be addressed to improve the overall attractiveness of Hong Kong insurance products [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Insurance Authority has set a cap on the demonstration interest rates for dividend insurance policies, limiting Hong Kong dollar policies to a maximum of 6% and non-Hong Kong dollar policies to 6.5%, effective from July 1, 2025 [2][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - There has been a surge in mainland Chinese clients traveling to Hong Kong to purchase dividend insurance policies before the new regulations take effect, with many seeking to lock in the current higher expected returns [3][6]. - The demand for dividend insurance has increased significantly post-COVID-19, as mainland clients are drawn to the relatively higher returns compared to domestic insurance products [10][12]. - Insurance agents have reported a dramatic increase in business, with some agents experiencing explosive growth in policy signings during this period [7][6]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The new guidelines aim to standardize the demonstration interest rates to prevent misleading marketing practices that could create unrealistic expectations among clients [11][12]. - The cap on expected returns is intended to encourage insurance companies to manage investment returns more prudently and ensure more stable dividend realization rates [16][12]. Group 3: Client Considerations - Clients are advised to approach their insurance purchases with caution, considering their actual needs and the potential risks associated with non-guaranteed returns [4][8]. - The expected returns from dividend insurance policies can vary significantly based on the duration of the policy, with longer-term policies potentially seeing larger discrepancies in returns due to the new caps [14][15]. - Factors such as currency exchange risks and the performance of the insurance company's investments can impact the actual returns received by policyholders [17][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent global tariff issues on capital markets and emphasizes the importance of asset allocation strategies for individuals and families to achieve stable wealth growth in uncertain environments [1] Group 1: Role of Insurance in Asset Allocation - Hong Kong serves as a unique hub for global asset allocation, particularly in the insurance sector, due to its diverse financial products and effective regulatory framework [2] - Savings-type insurance (participating insurance) in Hong Kong offers risk protection and can counter currency fluctuations, making it an attractive investment option [2] - Insurance should primarily be viewed as a protective measure rather than an investment vehicle, with a focus on its risk management capabilities [2][3] Group 2: Unique Advantages of Participating Insurance - Participating insurance provides long-term benefits and can generate compound interest, allowing for global asset allocation and risk diversification [4] - The product can help address future financial needs such as retirement and education funding, and it can also facilitate wealth transfer [4] Group 3: Suitability of Participating Insurance - Participating insurance is best suited for long-term investors, with a recommendation to hold the policy for at least 15 years to avoid significant losses [5] - Individuals should plan their insurance allocations based on personal circumstances, with an emphasis on early planning for retirement and financial security [5] Group 4: Choosing Participating Insurance - Selecting a reputable insurance provider is crucial, as different companies have varying methods for calculating dividends and assessing product performance [6][7] - Historical stability and experience of the insurance company are important factors, as demonstrated by Prudential's resilience through financial crises [7]