"通过高才通来港卖保险就是一场'豪赌'，首年淘汰率达到80%，但活下来后就是'神仙工作'。" 今年的中秋和国庆，25岁的李环不打算回家过节，计划在香港继续她的"炒散"（兼职）工作，她已经提前联系好餐 厅，时薪80港元。在某知名高校金融专业毕业后，李环通过香港高端人才通行证计划（下称"高才通"）来到香港，慢 慢寻找工作机会。 香港某头部保险公司的代理人田绵刚刚完成新一轮续签。2022年底，她放弃深圳的工作来到香港做保险。短短3年时 间，做到了年薪接近百万元。在她看来，通过高才通来港卖保险就是一场"豪赌"，首年淘汰率达到80%，但活下来后 就是"神仙工作"。 李环与田绵，正是"高才通"计划下来港人群中两个鲜明的缩影：一边是仍在摸索与等待的新来者，一边是经历残酷筛 选后的"幸存者"。 近日，中国香港特区劳工及福利局（下称"香港劳福局"）公布了"高才通"的阶段性实施数据，从侧面揭开了"高才"赴 港从事金融业的神秘面纱。2022年至今，已超过22万人通过"高才通"计划来到香港。截至2025年7月底，共有1.37万名 高才逗留期限已满，其中46%的高才放弃申请续签。竞争激烈的求职环境、高淘汰率的保险业、高企的通勤或居住成 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong insurance market is expected to experience a historic surge in 2024, with new premiums reaching HKD 219.8 billion, a 21.4% increase from HKD 180.7 billion in 2023, marking the first time it surpasses HKD 200 billion and setting a new record [1][2] - Mainland visitors contributed HKD 62.8 billion in premiums, a 6.5% increase from HKD 59 billion in 2023, accounting for 28.6% of total premiums in Hong Kong [1][2] - The rise in demand for insurance from mainland residents is attributed to lower interest rates in mainland China, leading to a strong need for wealth management and diversified currency policies [2] Insurance Market Dynamics - The structure of new premiums in 2024 shows that USD policies accounted for 78.9%, HKD policies for 15.7%, and RMB policies for 3.9% [2] - The flexibility of asset selection in Hong Kong insurance products and the ability to cater to cross-border asset allocation needs have significantly increased the attractiveness of these products for high-net-worth individuals from mainland China [2] Illegal Forex Exchange Activities - A criminal group exploited the surge in mainland residents purchasing insurance in Hong Kong by offering illegal foreign exchange services disguised as insurance premium payments, leading to significant financial misconduct [3][4] - The group, consisting of high-earning insurance professionals, utilized coded language and offshore communication tools to facilitate these illegal transactions, which involved transferring funds between domestic and foreign accounts to evade regulatory scrutiny [3][4] Regulatory Response and Market Impact - The illegal forex exchange activities have raised concerns about the security of funds and the potential for these operations to be linked to other criminal activities, such as money laundering and fraud [6][7] - Regulatory measures are being enhanced to address these illegal practices, with a focus on maintaining the integrity of the foreign exchange market and preventing financial crimes [7][8] - The introduction of the Cross-Border Payment System in June 2025 aims to provide a more convenient and cost-effective channel for small cross-border payments, which may help mitigate the demand for illegal forex exchanges [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the controversy surrounding Hong Kong insurance, particularly the claim by economist Lang Xianping that it is a "carefully designed scam," emphasizing the challenges in achieving a 7% stable return and outlining seven major pitfalls associated with it [1][3]. Summary by Sections 7% Return Controversy - The Hong Kong Insurance Authority has lowered the demonstration interest rate for participating insurance from 7% to 6.5% starting July 1, 2024, to prevent misinterpretation of returns [1]. - The 7% figure is not a guaranteed return but a non-guaranteed part of the demonstration interest rate, with clear distinctions required by regulators between hypothetical and actual returns [1][2]. Investment Perspective - Hong Kong insurance should not be viewed as a guaranteed profit-making financial product but rather as a medium to long-term asset allocation tool [4]. - Historical data shows that the median annualized return for policies held for over 20 years is 5.8%, although short-term volatility can lead to significant fluctuations [6]. Product Types and Market Trends - The current market for Hong Kong insurance is primarily divided into critical illness insurance and dividend-paying whole life insurance, with the latter becoming the dominant product type [8]. - Multi-currency dividend savings insurance is now the main product, offering features like currency conversion and policy splitting, making it suitable for wealth transfer and asset protection [9]. Consumer Insights - The motivation for mainland residents to purchase Hong Kong insurance has shifted from protection to asset allocation, driven by lower interest rates and a need for diversified investments [10]. - Hong Kong insurance may not be suitable for everyone, particularly those without cross-border needs, due to higher cognitive barriers and potential additional costs from currency fluctuations and legal differences [11]. Conclusion - Hong Kong insurance is not a scam but a financial tool shaped by legal environments, currency systems, product structures, and cross-border channels, suitable for individuals with clear long-term needs [12]. - The market lacks perfect insurance products, emphasizing the importance of understanding personal suitability before making investment decisions [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong insurance market, which attracted HKD 219.8 billion in premiums annually, is criticized as a "carefully designed scam" by economist Lang Xianping, highlighting the influx of elite graduates from top universities selling insurance with some earning over HKD 2 million annually [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "High-end Talent Pass Scheme" launched in Hong Kong has attracted over 90% of the 90,000 approved applicants from mainland China, with a median monthly income of HKD 50,000, and the financial sector being the primary destination [4]. - The insurance sales profession is viewed as a "visa password" for staying in Hong Kong, allowing flexibility for other entrepreneurial projects [4][6]. - The insurance commission model is under scrutiny, with proposals to limit first-year commissions similar to Singapore's regulations [6]. Group 2: Income Disparities - Among high-earning individuals, only 10% earn over HKD 200,000 monthly, primarily those with existing resources [6]. - Class A earners (annual income over HKD 2.5 million) can generate significant premiums quickly, while Class B earners face pressure to work full-time, and Class C graduates often struggle to secure sales [7]. Group 3: Product Performance and Complaints - Lang Xianping's claims about low returns on insurance policies are countered by industry professionals, indicating guaranteed returns are around 0.5%, with non-guaranteed returns dependent on "dividend realization rates" [8]. - In 2024, the Hong Kong Insurance Complaints Bureau received 356 cases, with only 9 resulting in compensation, indicating a low success rate of 2.5% [8]. - The industry is experiencing a surge in mainland Chinese customers, who spent HKD 62.8 billion on Hong Kong insurance, accounting for 28.6% of new policies [9]. Group 4: Consumer Guidance - Potential buyers are advised to consider their long-term investment capabilities, with a focus on those seeking cross-border needs, asset diversification, and long-term holding [10]. - Key considerations include compliance with currency exchange limits, the necessity of in-person signing in Hong Kong, and understanding policy terms, particularly regarding cash value and dividend realization rates [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent criticism of Hong Kong insurance by economist Lang Xianping has sparked significant debate, highlighting potential risks and issues within the industry, while also raising questions about the motivations behind such critiques [1][3]. Group 1: Criticism of Hong Kong Insurance - Lang Xianping claims that many Hong Kong insurance products are designed as "scams," citing seven major pitfalls, including the difficulty of achieving a 7% stable return, significant losses upon early withdrawal, and high costs of legal recourse [3][4]. - The insurance industry has reacted strongly to these claims, with some experts acknowledging that while certain issues raised by Lang are valid, others are common across financial products and do not warrant excessive concern [3][4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Growth - Despite ongoing controversies and the presence of unlicensed intermediaries, the Hong Kong insurance market has seen a surge in activity, with new policy premiums reaching HKD 219.8 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.4% [6][9]. - A significant portion of this growth is attributed to mainland visitors, who accounted for HKD 62.8 billion in new premiums, representing a 6.5% increase and making up 28.6% of total new business [6]. Group 3: Consumer Awareness and Suitability - Experts emphasize that Hong Kong insurance products require a high level of financial knowledge and are primarily suited for specific demographics, such as middle-class families, students studying abroad, and high-net-worth individuals [11][12]. - Consumers are advised to assess their actual needs and risk tolerance before purchasing Hong Kong insurance, as the potential benefits may be offset by currency risks and legal complexities [11][12].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong insurance market presents both opportunities and challenges for mainland clients, with new policy premiums from mainland visitors expected to reach HKD 62.8 billion in 2024, a 6.5% year-on-year increase, accounting for 28.6% of total new policy premiums in personal business [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The demand for Hong Kong insurance products is driven by the need for better understanding and communication regarding insurance terms, as well as the uncertainty of returns and health disclosures [1] - Companies like 万通保险 (Manulife) aim to bridge the information gap and help clients navigate the complexities of investing in Hong Kong insurance [1] Group 2: Selection Criteria for Insurance Companies - Understanding insurance terms is crucial, including coverage scope, exclusions, waiting periods, and claims service [3] - The reliability of the insurance company is a key factor, as it reflects the company's investment capability and long-term stability [3] Group 3: Brand Background - The credibility of an insurance brand is often linked to its shareholders; for instance, 万通保险 is backed by the 170-year-old 万通人寿 (Manulife Financial), which has a strong financial rating [4] - 万通保险 collaborates with Barings, a 260-year-old asset management firm, enhancing its investment reliability [5] Group 4: Investment Strength - Investment capability is a core indicator of an insurance company's ability to meet its commitments, especially for savings and dividend products [7] - 万通保险 has a dedicated investment team focusing on alternative assets and entrusts 99% of its fixed-income assets to Barings, which is crucial for product yield stability [7][9] Group 5: Solvency Ratio - Hong Kong's insurance sector is governed by strict regulatory frameworks that require companies to maintain a solvency ratio above 100%, with leading firms often exceeding 200% [10] - 万通保险 has reported a solvency ratio exceeding 240%, indicating strong capital strength to cover potential claims [10] Group 6: Investment Strategy - Investing in Hong Kong insurance requires careful planning and informed decision-making, with a focus on matching personal needs with the right products [11] - Investors are advised to consult with experts from 万通保险 to fully understand the investment landscape [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate adjustments signify a "wealth reconstruction," impacting different socioeconomic groups in varying ways [2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - Loan interest rates have decreased by 10 basis points, bringing mortgage rates down to around 3%, while deposit rates have been cut by 25 basis points, with three- and five-year fixed deposits now at 1.3% [1]. - This creates a "interest rate gap trap," where keeping money in the bank results in losses, while borrowing money becomes profitable [6]. Group 2: Wealth Dynamics - High-net-worth individuals are moving their money out of banks to invest in other assets, as the 1.3% annualized return on deposits is insufficient [10][12]. - The rental yield for properties has reached 1.5% to 2.0%, providing returns that exceed bank interest rates, making real estate an attractive investment [13]. Group 3: Overseas Investments - High-net-worth individuals are also investing in overseas properties, such as in Japan, where rental yields exceed 4% and the yen has appreciated over 10% against the RMB in the past year [16][17]. - Quantitative investments are gaining traction, primarily benefiting high-net-worth individuals who are willing to invest [19][20]. Group 4: Middle-Class Responses - The middle class is responding to the interest rate cuts by paying down mortgages, effectively earning a "risk-free" return of 1.7% by reducing debt [22]. - Many middle-class individuals are looking towards Hong Kong as a "wealth haven," with 86% of high-net-worth individuals planning to invest abroad in the coming year [25][24]. Group 5: Investment Trends in Hong Kong - Hong Kong has become the top destination for overseas investments, with 37% of high-net-worth individuals choosing it for its mature financial market, stable economy, and diverse investment opportunities [27]. - The Hong Kong insurance market has seen a significant increase, with new individual policy premiums reaching 1,696 billion HKD, a 15.7% increase compared to the same period last year [32]. Group 6: Asset Diversification and Risk Management - Investors are seeking diversified asset classes in Hong Kong, including fixed income, equities, and infrastructure, to mitigate risks and ensure cash flow [33][34]. - The ability to maintain cash flow through certain assets is becoming increasingly important, as it allows for flexible access to funds [36].

Group 1: Market Environment - The international political and economic environment in 2025 is characterized by "high volatility," influenced by fluctuating trade policies, geopolitical conflicts, and monetary policy uncertainties [1] - The acceleration of global debt monetization contributes to a "black swan matrix" in the market, reflecting deep-seated anxieties and strategic innovations in risk pricing [1] Group 2: Gold as an Investment - Gold's transformation from a "safe-haven asset" to a "credit hedge tool" is evident, with a price increase of over 25% in 2024 and a brief rise above $3,500 per ounce in Q1 2025 [2] - Central banks have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years, with China's gold reserves at only 5%, indicating significant room for growth [2] - The correlation between gold and the US dollar is weakening, suggesting a shift towards a multipolar global currency system [2] - Short-term pressures from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance may be offset by potential inflation mismatches and debt ceiling issues later in the year, creating a breakthrough window for gold prices [2] Group 3: US Treasury Bonds - US Treasury yields remain high at 4%-5%, but their safe-haven status is challenged by US fiscal risks [3] - In Q1 2025, record inflows into US Treasury ETFs reflect market pricing of recession expectations [3] - Long-term concerns arise from the potential erosion of the dollar's credit quality due to debt monetization, which may undermine the ultimate safe-haven status of US Treasuries [3] Group 4: Alternative Investment Strategies - The concept of "second identity planning" is evolving into a legal and tax firewall for asset allocation, allowing investors to mitigate single-market policy risks [4] - The surge in Caribbean investment immigration applications by 70% in Q1 2025 indicates a proactive response from wealthy individuals to political uncertainties [4] - Hong Kong insurance products are emerging as an "upgraded alternative" to gold, offering multi-currency hedging and long-term returns exceeding 6%-7% [5] - Defensive stocks, particularly low-volatility dividend assets, are gaining traction, with Hong Kong stocks showing an 8% dividend yield, surpassing Treasury returns [6] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Key turning points in May 2025 include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and US-China tariff negotiations, presenting tactical opportunities in three asset classes [7] - Tactical opportunities in gold may arise if prices dip below $3,000, supported by geopolitical catalysts [7] - Hong Kong low-volatility dividend assets are expected to benefit from policy and valuation boosts, attracting long-term capital [8] - Bitcoin is being viewed as "digital gold," especially amid concerns over dollar credit, although its high volatility necessitates cautious investment [10] Group 6: Investment Strategy - A core-satellite investment strategy is recommended, with a core allocation of 60% in stable assets like gold, US Treasuries, and Hong Kong dividend ETFs [11] - Satellite positions of 40% should include Bitcoin, Hong Kong insurance, and cash to capture event-driven opportunities [12] - Regular investments in gold ETFs are suggested to smooth costs and avoid emotional high-point purchases [13] - Planning for second identities and Hong Kong insurance should be initiated 3-5 years in advance to mitigate sudden policy risks [14] Group 7: Monitoring Signals - Monitoring macro indicators such as US TIPS yields and central bank gold purchases can provide signals for gold investment [15] - Geopolitical events like the intensity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Taiwan Strait may trigger short-term trading opportunities in gold and defense stocks [16]

周末闲聊，想哪到哪啊。 昨天有不少读者看中了文末提到的4%活期利率，但这个不是墙内人民币的理财产品，是离岸美元的理财产品，我在文章里提到的老虎证券、富途证券、 盈透证券，包括之前的利弗莫尔都是境外券商。 你如果有外汇美元的话，4%收益没什么稀罕的，10年期美国国债收益率最新是4.3%，这些券商只是把国债收益给产品化，集成到了活期理财里。 然后就是有读者提出肉身去香港开离岸银行户，开离岸证券户。我可以确认开离岸银行户是肯定没问题的，至于离岸证券户几个中资券商不行，他们会拒 绝大陆过来的kyc，但我听说有好几个外资券商可以，至于是哪几个我唔知啊，你们开银行户的时候顺便问工作人员咯，这种上下游关联业务的多半有推 荐。 还有读者说让我多讲讲香港见闻，觉得蛮有趣的，其实我也只是匆匆的游客，没有深度体验香港本地生活。因为曾经上百年被英国统辖，那里确实和国内 城市很不一样。 普通人去那里感受最显著的差异就是消费贵，我之前提出过一个4倍理论，就是大部分香港物价除以4，就约等于国内。比如香港打工人月薪大都在20000- 30000区间，除以4就是国内的5000-7500，其它衣食住行等消费也差不多是这个比例。 比如我朋友他家每 ...