Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of 25 RMB per share, reflecting a 15% upside potential based on a 50x PE for 2025 [4][8]. Core Insights - The company experienced a positive revenue turnaround in Q3 2025, with a revenue of 1.04 billion RMB, up 1.75% year-on-year, despite a significant decline in net profit [9]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) faced pressure, decreasing by 5.61 percentage points to 22.92%, primarily due to rising costs of imported beef [10]. - The company is focusing on expanding its store network, with a current total of 5,260 stores, targeting university towns and large factory canteens for new openings [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 3,550 million RMB, 3,363 million RMB, 3,207 million RMB, 3,428 million RMB, and 3,760 million RMB, respectively, indicating a decline in the short term but potential growth in the long term [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decrease significantly in 2025E to 205 million RMB, down 40.7% from 2024A [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is 0.50 RMB, 0.62 RMB, and 0.73 RMB, respectively [4][8]. Product and Regional Performance - Fresh goods revenue showed a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year to 874 million RMB in Q3 2025, with notable growth in other fresh goods, which increased by 27.4% [11]. - Regional performance varied, with East China revenue down 1.9%, while South China and overseas markets saw significant growth of 73.1% and 57.7%, respectively [11].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating challenges in the market and operational performance [4][5]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.514 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 194 million yuan, down 44.37% year-on-year [4]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 1.041 billion yuan, an increase of 1.75% year-on-year, but the net profit decreased by 40.66% to 9 million yuan [4]. Product Performance - Fresh product sales showed improvement, with Q3 2025 fresh product revenue reaching 874 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.08% year-on-year [5]. - Key product categories such as "夫妻肺片" and "整禽类" experienced revenue declines of 13.71% and 6.67% respectively, while "香辣休闲" and "其他鲜货" saw increases of 4.92% and 27.39% [5]. Regional Performance - Revenue performance varied across regions in Q3 2025, with East China generating 698 million yuan (down 1.92% year-on-year) and South China showing significant growth of 73.13% [5]. - The company is also exploring overseas markets, achieving 11 million yuan in revenue from international operations in Q1-Q3 2025 [5]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 22.52%, with a slight decrease to 22.92% in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.61 percentage points [6]. - The net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 7.72%, which decreased by 6.15 percentage points year-on-year in Q3 2025 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 19.8 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.514 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 6.43% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 194 million yuan, down 44.37% year-on-year. In Q3 2025 alone, revenue was 1.041 billion yuan, an increase of 1.75% year-on-year, while net profit was 90 million yuan, a decrease of 40.66% year-on-year [1][8]. - The company continues to face operational pressures, but there is a focus on overseas business developments, particularly the establishment of a processing base in Nepal, which could significantly reduce tariff costs for imported beef products [8][9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024A is projected at 3.363 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -5.3%. For 2025E, revenue is expected to decrease to 3.160 billion yuan, with a further decline of 6.0% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 346 million yuan for 2024A, with a significant drop to 208 million yuan in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 39.8% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are estimated at 0.84 yuan for 2024A, dropping to 0.50 yuan in 2025E, and gradually increasing to 0.81 yuan by 2027E [4][8]. Operational Insights - The company has approximately 5,200 stores as of October 2025, indicating a stable presence in the market despite the ongoing operational challenges [8]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 22.9%, down 5.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material costs and a decline in product mix [8][9]. - The company has seen varied performance across different regions, with significant growth in South China (73.1% year-on-year) while other regions like North China experienced a decline of 17.3% [8].

证券代码：603057 证券简称：紫燕食品 公告编号：2025-069 紫燕食品集团股份有限公司 2025 年前三季度经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第3号——行业信息披露》(第 十四号——食品制造)的相关规定，现将紫燕食品集团股份有限公司（以下简称 "公司"）2025 年前三季度主要经营数据（未经审计）公告如下： 一、 公司 2025 年前三季度主要经营情况 3、主营业务按区域分类情况： 单位：元 币种：人民币 | 分地区 | 2025 年 1-9 月 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 金额 | 占比 | | 华东 | 1,697,249,485.68 | 68.99% | | 华中 | 287,418,253.56 | 11.68% | | 西南 | 249,014,570.67 | 10.12% | | 华北 | 87,806,768.03 | 3.57% | | 华南 | 71,485,765.66 | 2.91% | | 西北 ...

证券代码：603057 证券简称：紫燕食品 公告编号：2025-057 3、主营业务按区域分类情况： | | 单位：元 | 币种：人民币 | | --- | --- | --- | | 分地区 | 2025 年 1-6 月 | | | | 金额 | 占比 | | 华东 | 998,954,071.17 | 68.96% | | 华中 | 166,508,156.54 | 11.49% | | 西南 | 142,540,880.93 | 9.84% | | 华北 | 55,043,560.88 | 3.80% | | 华南 | 40,716,101.82 | 2.81% | | 西北 | 20,044,365.65 | 1.38% | | 东北 | 7,575,875.37 | 0.52% | | 境外 | 6,487,324.00 | 0.45% | | 其他 | 10,738,190.35 | 0.74% | | 主营业务收入小计 | 1,448,608,526.70 | 100.00% | 紫燕食品集团股份有限公司 2025 年半年度经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 紫燕食品公布2024年年报和2025年一季报，2024年全年实现营业收入33.63亿元，同比-5.28%；归母净利 润3.46亿元，同比+4.50%；扣非归母净利润2.81亿元，同比+1.28%。其中，24Q4单季度实现营业收入6.76 亿元，同比-7.88%；归母净亏损249万元，上年同期为亏损992万元；扣非归母净亏损2028万元，上年同期 为亏损1524万元。25Q1单季度实现营业收入5.64亿元，同比-18.86%；归母净利润1522万元，同 比-71.80%；扣非归母净利润500万元，同比-87.09%。 各品类不同程度承压，外埠市场有所收缩 受终端消费需求及其他业态冲击影响，公司门店端业务阶段性承压，鲜货类 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Ziyan Food, reported a decline in revenue for 2024, with a total revenue of 3.363 billion yuan, down 5.28% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 4.50% to 346 million yuan [3] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 676 million yuan, a decrease of 7.88% year-on-year, with a net loss of 2.49 million yuan compared to a loss of 9.92 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 564 million yuan, down 18.86% year-on-year, with a net profit of 15.22 million yuan, a significant drop of 71.80% [3] - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 was 22.93%, with a decline in Q1 2025 to 18.16%, attributed to rising import beef prices [5] Group 2: Product Category Performance - The fresh goods category saw a revenue of 2.804 billion yuan in 2024, down 6.65% year-on-year, with specific products like "Husband and Wife Lung Slices" and "Whole Chicken" experiencing declines of 9.84% and 8.95% respectively [4] - In Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, the fresh goods category generated revenues of 544 million yuan and 446 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 10.50% and 20.60% respectively [4] - The revenue from the core region, East China, decreased by 5.97% in 2024, while other regions like North China and South China saw declines of 18.20% and 16.41% respectively [4] Group 3: Cost and Expense Analysis - The sales expense ratio for 2024 was 5.24%, increasing to 6.21% in Q1 2025, indicating a rise in costs due to declining revenue [5] - The management expense ratio also increased from 5.24% in 2024 to 8.43% in Q1 2025, reflecting the impact of reduced scale effects [5] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 10.30%, which dropped to 2.70% in Q1 2025, showing significant pressure on profitability [5]