chence@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524020002 2025 年 10 月 20 日 Q3 经济放缓符合预期，关注政策性金融工具效果 宏观研究团队 ——兼评 Q3 经济数据 何宁（分析师） 陈策（分析师） hening@kysec.cn GDP：Q3 经济放缓符合预期，建筑业拖累较大 1、2025Q3 实际 GDP 同比增长 4.8%、符合万得一致预期。Q3 GDP 环比为 1.1%， 较前值提高 0.1 个百分点；分产业看，第二产业走弱较多，推测 Q3 建筑业 GDP 的降幅可能明显走扩；价格水平温和修复，Q3 名义 GDP 与实际 GDP 的增速差 较前值收窄了 0.2 个百分点。 2、出口回暖提振工业生产，服务业维持韧性。9 月工业增加值同比提高了 1.3 个百分点至 6.5%，汽车、食品制造、油气开采、茶酒饮料等贡献较大；9 月服 务业生产同比持平前值的 5.6%，信息软件技术、租赁商务服务边际改善，金融 等略有回落；产销率延续处于历年最低水平，但较 2024 年同期的差距略有收窄。 3、居民可支配收入小幅降速：财产净收入增速明显放缓，居民投入产出端呈"工 时小幅增加、时薪增速微降 ...

本文字数：2561，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 特朗普政府正在悄悄调整其标志性的关税政策。 据新华社此前报道 ， 美国联邦最高法院9月9日宣布，将审议特朗普政府征收的多数关税的合法性，定 于11月首周听取口头辩论。 而在举行听证会之前，据统计，特朗普政府近期已免除了数十种商品的关税，并在与各国的贸易协定谈 判中提出了数百种商品的关税豁免方案。 与此同时，可以看到特朗普政府也在根据1962年《贸易扩展法》第232条扩大关税的适用范围，近期则 将重型卡车、药品和家具纳入其中。 第一财经记者采访的多位专家表示，此举旨在规避最高法院可能否决其所谓"对等关税"政策所带来的法 律风险：如果最高法院作出不利于政府的裁决，特朗普政府可能被迫退还大量已征收的关税。 2025.10. 20 英国杜伦大学法学院副院长、跨国法教授兼全球政策研究所联合主任杜明对第一财经记者表示，如果美 国最高法院接受审理后判决特朗普政府败诉，那么已经征收的关税或要连本带利退还，而且这还是商家 未要求美国政府赔偿其他损失的情况下。 来源：新华社 豁免范围大幅扩大 最近几周，特朗普政府已将数十种产品从其所谓的"对等关税"中豁免，并表示 ...

宏 观 研 究 经济数据 事件：三季度 GDP 同比 4.8%、预期 4.8%、前值 5.2%。9 月，社零当月同比 3%、预期 3.1%、前值 3.4%；固定资产投资累计同比-0.5%、预期 0%、前值 0.5%；工业增加值当 月同比 6.5%、预期 5.2%、前值 5.2%。 ⚫ 核心观点：短期因素与中期韧性共振，支撑三季度经济保持合理增长 GDP：服务消费与外需改善，叠加阶段性补库存与竣工走强，三季度经济增速保持高位。 1、服务消费保持韧性，最终消费对 GDP 的拉动持平于 2.7 个百分点；2、外需改善；3、 9 月竣工冲高大幅冲高 22.9pct，拉动商品房销售增值，支撑资本形成 GDP。4、阶段性 补库存，9 月汽车生产冲高拉动工增改善，或与国补暂停前企业"补库存抢销售"有关。 生产：工业增加值增速高基数下冲高至 6.5%，更多受汽车等个别行业"抢生产"的拉动。 9 月工业增加值增速上行 1.3pct 至 6.5%。拆分结构看，下游生产改善明显。其中汽车业 增加值上行 7.6pct 至 16%、拉动整体生产增速上行 0.4pct，或与部分地区国补暂停前企 业集中"补库存抢销售"有一定关系；上游生产 ...

Group 1: Ice and Snow Industry - The scale of China's ice and snow industry is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, reaching 100.53 billion yuan by 2025, driven by major events like the 15th National Winter Games [1] Group 2: Gold Market - The World Gold Council indicates that gold prices have reached historical highs 45 times this year, yet the market remains unsaturated, with speculative positions not at peak levels [1] Group 3: AI Market - A report by Bain & Company and Amazon Web Services forecasts that the AI software and hardware market will reach between $780 billion and $990 billion by 2027, with an average growth rate of 40%-55% [1] Group 4: Microsoft and Domestic Software Companies - Reports suggest that Microsoft plans to move most of its new product production outside of China starting in 2026, leading to a surge in domestic software company stock prices [2] Group 5: Nestlé's Restructuring - Nestlé plans to lay off approximately 16,000 employees globally over the next two years, aiming for annual cost savings of 1 billion Swiss francs by 2027 [2] Group 6: ByteDance's Model Usage - ByteDance's Doubao model has seen a dramatic increase in usage, with daily token usage rising from 120 billion to over 30 trillion tokens in a span of 16 months [3] Group 7: NIO's Legal Issues - NIO faces a lawsuit from Singapore's sovereign wealth fund, GIC, over allegations of inflated revenue and profits, stemming from a report by a short-seller in 2022 [5] Group 8: Financial Performance of Companies - Xinjiang Communications Construction reported new signed project contracts worth 1.413 billion yuan in Q3 [6] - Tongyuan Petroleum won a $126 million oil and gas service project in Algeria [8] - Guosen Securities received approval to issue short-term corporate bonds up to 15 billion yuan [9] - Xinhua Insurance reported a 19% year-on-year increase in original insurance premium income for the first three quarters [11] - Jinmo Co. achieved a 4.03% increase in profit for the first three quarters [12] - Chunfeng Power reported a 30.89% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters [13] - Guobang Pharmaceutical's net profit increased by 15.78% year-on-year for the first three quarters [14]

"中国是达能全球第二大市场，更是驱动未来增长的重要引擎。"达能中国、北亚及大洋洲总裁谢伟 博表示，新产能将更高效、更精准地为消费者提供个性化医学营养解决方案，助力"健康中国"建设。 达能在2025-2028年的中期发展战略中明确提出将加速发展医学营养业务。达能首席执行官盛睿安 表示，达能对中国市场医学营养领域持续加大投入和创新，是推进"振新达能"战略，迈向健康与营养未 来的关键举措。 "达能集团与无锡的合作，始终与时代同频、领行业之先。"无锡高新区党工委书记崔荣国表示，无 锡工厂扩建项目从今年3月奠基开工，到如今顺利封顶，既体现了达能扎根中国市场的坚定决心，也反 映了集团对无锡高新区营商环境的高度认可。无锡高新区将始终秉持"无难事、悉心办"服务理念，以市 场化、法治化、国际化一流营商环境，为企业持续发展壮大，提供最全面保障、最周到服务、最有力支 持。 "无锡工厂是达能全球供应链的重要组成部分。新厂房建成后将成为达能全球最先进的生产设施之 一，不仅可以进一步增强达能中国供应链的韧性，还将助力我们更高效、更稳定地为全球市场提供优质 的产品。"达能首席运营官Vikram Agarwal说。 编辑：侯隽 10月13日 ...

每经AI快讯，金禾实业（SZ 002597，收盘价：20.99元）10月14日晚间发布公告称，公司第七届第四次 董事会会议于2025年10月14日以通讯方式召开。会议审议了《关于对外提供委托贷款的议案》等文件。 截至发稿，金禾实业市值为119亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——中科院博导带队，中国固态电池技术又有重大突破！ （记者 王晓波） 2025年1至6月份，金禾实业的营业收入构成为：食品制造占比48.1%，基础化工占比43.18%，其他行业 占比8.65%，贸易占比0.08%。 ...

2025.10. 14 本文字数：4997，阅读时长大约7分钟 作者 | 第一财经 文思敏 9月下旬，借助大阪世博会的契机，一场以"健康"为主题的溯源之旅在日本大阪拉开序幕。东道主是格力高，一家 来自日本的百年老字号食品企业。从江崎纪念馆到神户工厂，再到2025大阪世博会的现场，格力高的百年历史跃 然于眼前——我们也有机会看到一家日本百年传统食品企业的内部面貌。 作为大阪世博会的重要赞助商之一，格力高以其 "举起双臂向前奔跑的年轻男子"人形广告牌而闻名日本，这一形 象也是格力高"活力与健康"理念的象征。在大阪道顿堀，许多游客来此打卡、拍照。闪耀着蓝色霓虹光芒的格力高 奔人广告牌，形式存在已有九十年，已经成为日本大众文化的集体记忆之一。 注：在大阪道顿堀，格力高的奔人广告牌，已经成为日本大众文化的集体记忆之一。 自公司创办之初，创始人江崎利一便怀揣 "通过食品增强国民体质" 的理念，致力于通过食品创新来促进消费者的 身体健康。在今天，格力高已将这一初心转化为全球化的健康战略，涵盖肠道健康、抗衰老、功能性营养等前沿健 康领域。历史之间，格力高始终在"美味与健康"之间探索，并把这些理念和产品推向全球。 注：格力高在 ...

Ajinomoto (OTCPK:AJIN.Y) Update / Briefing October 13, 2025 08:00 PM ET Speaker1Good morning.Speaker3Thank you for joining Ajinomoto Group's business briefing.Speaker1Meeting on Latin American business despite your busy schedule. This is Kaji from IR. At the outset, I'd like to introduce today's speakers representing Representative Executive Officer, President & CEO Mr. Nakamura, Executive Officer, General Manager of Latin America, President of Ajinomoto do Brasil Ms. Yamamoto.Speaker3Hello.Speaker1Nice to ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Lianhua Holdings has completed its share repurchase plan, reaching the lower limit of the repurchase amount, with a total expenditure of approximately 143 million RMB [1][1][1] Group 2 - As of the announcement, Lianhua Holdings has repurchased approximately 28.05 million shares, accounting for 1.56% of the company's total share capital [1][1][1] - The highest purchase price for the repurchased shares was 6.05 RMB per share, while the lowest was 4.29 RMB per share [1][1][1] - For the year 2024, Lianhua Holdings' revenue composition is as follows: 96.86% from the food manufacturing industry, 3.05% from computing services, and 0.09% from other businesses [1][1][1] - The current market capitalization of Lianhua Holdings is 10.3 billion RMB [1][1][1]

Core Insights - The inauguration of the OneBiome laboratory in Saclay, Paris, marks a significant step for Danone in the field of science-based innovation and gut health research [1] - The laboratory will serve as a global R&D hub for Danone, focusing on gut microbiome, nutrition, and digital health, reinforcing its leadership in shaping the future of food and health [1] - Danone's CEO emphasized that the OneBiome laboratory is a milestone in the "Renewed Danone" strategy, enhancing the company's capabilities in gut microbiome research [2] Research and Development Focus - The OneBiome laboratory will leverage Danone's century-long expertise, scientific data, clinical research, and consumer insights to accelerate research on gut microbiome and its impact on overall health [1] - Advanced microbiology, artificial intelligence, and data science will be utilized to develop precise nutritional solutions, strengthening Danone's leadership in gut health and digital science [1] - The company aims to explore the potential of prebiotics, probiotics, postbiotics, and synbiotics for gut health, continuing its commitment to scientific-driven health innovation [2] Market and Consumer Insights - A survey conducted by IFOP in June 2025 revealed that half of the respondents believe their gut microbiome is unhealthy, highlighting the ongoing need for education and innovation in this field [1] - Danone is committed to empowering consumer health through gut microbiome science, offering nutrition solutions that cover the entire life cycle [2] - In China, Danone's unique digital ecosystem allows for rapid innovation and feedback, enabling the company to create valuable solutions for patients, consumers, and healthcare professionals [3]