更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 资深原油专家交流 20260104 摘要 0&A 委内瑞拉近期的局势对原油市场有何影响? 委内瑞拉的局势对原油市场产生了多方面的影响。首先,从短期来看,地缘政治 因素使得市场名义上看起来过剩,但实际上并没有那么严重。委内瑞拉目前的原 油产量约为 80-100 万桶/日,出口量在 2025 年 11 月约为 70 万桶，其中 80%以 上出口到中国。然而,由于美国对委内瑞拉的制裁,特别是从 2025年 12 月 9 日开始,美国扣押了第一艘委内瑞拉原油运输船,并在之后封锁了委内瑞拉海岸 线,导致其出口量显著下降。 如果美国解除制裁,并给予足够的稀释剂供应, 争 男 - 委内瑞拉原油出口受美国制裁影响显著,若制裁解除且稀释剂供应充足, 其产量可能在 3-6个月内增加 40 万桶/日至 120-140 万桶/日,对 2026 年全球原油平衡表产生重大影响,雪佛龙公司或受益。 2026年全球原油市场供需展望相对悲观,预计每日过剩100万桶,总体 ● 过剩率在 200-250 万桶/日以上,主要由于巴西、圭亚那、阿根廷等地的 新项目集中爆发,新增供应将在 202 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the supply of crude oil has tightened and oil prices have risen, leading to an increase in asphalt prices. Shandong spot prices have slightly increased, and the futures market has strengthened slightly. With low production and a slight increase in shipments, factory inventories have continued to decline, while social inventories have increased, resulting in overall inventory remaining relatively stable. The market is generally showing marginal improvement. [1] - The market in the north is tight, while in the east and south, it is relatively loose. Positive factors include low inventory levels, tight and expensive heavy - oil raw materials, and a decrease in production scheduled for April. Negative factors are the lack of demand improvement, weak purchasing in the east and south, and price cuts by Sinopec. The fundamentals have slightly improved, and the market is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term. Inventories are expected to gradually accumulate at a low level in the first half of the year. [1] - It is expected that asphalt prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices. Attention should be paid to the actual inventory situation and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials. Consider long positions in distant - end contracts such as the 09 contract. [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Review - Shandong spot prices have remained stable, with a market reference price of 3,510 - 3,700 yuan/ton. The asphalt futures market has shown fluctuations, and crack spread profits are at a moderate level. Gasoline and diesel prices in Shandong have slightly increased. The daily production of asphalt is 6.3 (+0) million tons. [1] Price and Spread Data - The report presents price data for various asphalt - related items from March 27 to April 2, 2025, including prices of Shandong spot, asphalt futures, Korea's CIF price in East China, and Shandong coker feedstock, as well as data on spreads and basis. [1] - It also shows multiple seasonal charts of asphalt, such as basis seasonality for different contracts (06, 09, 12), 9 - 12 month spreads, refinery comprehensive costs for a certain type of asphalt, the ratio of Singapore asphalt to fuel oil, import profits in East China, and comparisons between coker feedstock, petroleum coke, and asphalt prices, as well as data on asphalt's operating rate, social inventory rate, and warehouse receipt seasonality. [1][2]